Having recently celebrated a wedding anniversary with a monster number in front of it, I am occasionally asked to share my thoughts on the keys to a long and successful marriage (beyond simply choosing the right person). For one thing, remember that when there is a disagreement in a marriage, if you can prove that you’re right, you’ll make things worse.
Far more important is the understanding that you can’t tell someone how they should feel. All of us, at one time or another, have said something incredibly stupid along the lines of:
• That shouldn’t make you angry.
• Why don’t you think that’s funny? • Absolutely everybody likes that.
It is for that reason that it is currently a fool’s errand to try to convince the average American about the state of the economy. The fact is that, even with nagging inflation, the U.S. economy is in great shape and is easily the best in the world. But nobody is listening.
I’m reminded of a study from two guys at Princeton that definitively disputes the common “wisdom” that the economy is better under Republicans.
“Specifically, the U.S. economy performs better when a Democrat is president than when a Republican is. The superiority of economic performance under Democrats rather than Republicans is nearly ubiquitous; it holds no matter how you define success. By many measures, the performance gap is startlingly large — so large, in fact, that it strains credulity.”
The Princeton study shows that in every case since 1949, the U.S. economy grew more and performed better under a Democratic president than it had under his Republican predecessor or than it would under his Republican successor. Every time; no exceptions. And, as mentioned, the differences are often not even that close.
The authors of the study could find no clues for the phenomenon. Prevailing tax policies varied, and it didn’t matter which party controlled the houses of Congress. Some might intuit that the Democrats simply inherited strong economies that were poised to take off, but, in truth, in every single case, it’s the exact opposite.
One of the most stunning numbers is that while the two parties have pretty much split the time in the White House over the past 74 years (34 years for Dems, 40 for Republicans), in that time, Democrats have created almost exactly twice as many jobs.
Under President Harry Truman (1949-53), the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at a remarkable 7% per year. Under Truman’s Republican successor, Dwight Eisenhower, the growth rate plunged to 3% his first term and down to 2% his second term.
It immediately jumped up to over 6% under John F. Kennedy and it was at 5% when Lyndon Johnson was President. As soon as Richard Nixon took office, it dropped back down to 3% and it was at 2% during the Nixon/Gerald Ford years.
Then things get really counterintuitive. There is an almost universal belief that Jimmy Carter’s term in office was a disaster on many fronts. As it turns out, the U.S. economy grew at nearly twice the rate under Carter as it had in the Nixon/Ford term. Even crazier is that the economy also performed better under Carter than it would in Ronald Reagan’s first term or in Reagan’s entire eight years in office.
Perhaps the best example is what Democrat Bill Clinton did to the two Bushes that bookended his eight-year term. Under the elder Bush, the economy limped along at a tepid 2% per year. In Clinton’s first term, it jumped up over 4% per year and was at almost 5% per year in his second term. For the younger Bush, it was at 3% his first term and a dismal one-half of 1% the second term.
It would surprise no one that Barack Obama, in his first term, did better than his predecessor, seeing as how the country was clawing its way out of the Great Recession. But, to the shock and dismay of the MAGA cultists, Obama’s second term was better than Trump’s only term. In Obama’s second term, the economy added over 225,000 jobs per month. In Trump’s first three years (leaving out the pandemic year), the best they could do was 193,000 added jobs.
Obviously, Joe Biden’s economy will swamp that of Trump. In 50 years, people will look back at what Biden has done in wild wonder. Even with a couple mistakes along the way (too much stimulus money certainly added to the inflation), his administration has taken the country from the depths of the pandemic to a roaring economy without ever falling into a recession. It has been nothing short of masterful.
Try telling that to the guy driving down the street past the gas station where the sign says $4.05/gallon on his way to buy a Big Mac for $8. Despite the inflation, he almost certainly has a higher percentage of his income left over after expenses than he did five years ago, but it doesn’t feel like it. That’s a tough nut to crack.
But, for the people who think that the economy would be better under Trump than it is under Biden, that’s false. And it’s provably false. As Richard Pryor’s father would have said, “I’ve got it in the book, Man. I’ll show ya.”
