Midterm election odds give you a quick way to see how traders currently expect the 2026 US elections to play out. Unlike polls, which can take weeks to conduct and publish, prediction market prices move as new information comes in.
With control of Congress at stake, this gives you another way to follow how expectations are changing before Election Day. Here’s where the markets currently stand and what the prices mean.
| # | App | Offer | Terms |
| 1 | Polymarket | Deposit $10 and get a $20 trading bonus credit with code PRED100 | New users only. 18+. Sign up with code the code PRED100, complete identity verification, and deposit at least $10. The bonus is issued as trading credit, not withdrawable cash, and must be used under the promotion’s trading requirements. Not available in every state. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. |
| 2 | Kalshi | Trade $25 and get $25 in promotional trading credit with code PRED100 | New users only. 18+. Sign up with code PRED100, complete identity verification, and settle at least $25 in qualifying trades within the promotional window set out in the offer terms. Credit is issued as trading credit, not withdrawable cash, and expires if unused within the period stated in those terms. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. |
Midterm Odds at a Glance
The midterm odds 2026 table below compares the current prices for control of the House and Senate on Polymarket and Kalshi. On both platforms, a contract price can also be read as the market’s implied probability, so a 51¢ price suggests roughly a 51% market estimate. If you have been searching for midterm elections 2026 odds, note that the figures here are contract prices, not traditional betting odds.
| Market | Polymarket price | Kalshi price | Implied probability & 30-day move |
| Democratic House control | 84¢ | 85¢ | Polymarket: 84% (0pp); Kalshi: 85% (roughly unchanged) |
| Republican House control | 16¢ | 15¢ | Polymarket: 16% (0pp); Kalshi: 15% (roughly unchanged) |
| Democratic Senate control | 47¢ | 48¢ | Polymarket: 47% (+1pp); Kalshi: 48% (+3pp) |
| Republican Senate control | 52¢ | 52¢ | Polymarket: 52% (0pp); Kalshi: 52% (-3pp) |
The prices were captured on August 30, 2026, at approximately 2:00 AM ET and reflect the markets at that time. Prediction market prices can change throughout the day as traders buy and sell contracts.
What moved over the last 30 days?
The Senate markets saw the most movement over the past month, with Democratic prices edging up on both platforms while Republicans remained narrowly ahead. The House market changed very little and continued to strongly favor Democrats.
That broadly matches the national polling picture. An Emerson College Polling survey of likely 2026 voters, conducted July 19–20, found Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot 53% to 42%, an 11-point advantage. The poll also found Trump’s job approval at 39%, with 57% disapproving.
Individual races have been moving too as new polling and campaign developments come in, which can affect the broader market view of the midterms.
Top Prediction Market Apps for the US Midterm Elections
| # | App | Offer | Terms |
| 1 | Polymarket | Deposit $10 and get a $20 trading bonus | New users only. 18+. Sign up with code PRED100,, complete identity verification, and deposit at least $10. The bonus is issued as trading credit, not withdrawable cash, and must be used under the promotion’s trading requirements. Not available in every state. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. |
| 2 | Kalshi | Trade $25 and get $25 in promotional trading credit with code PRED100 | New users only. 18+. Sign up with code PRED100, complete identity verification, and settle at least $25 in qualifying trades within the promotional window set out in the offer terms. Credit is issued as trading credit, not withdrawable cash, and expires if unused within the period stated in those terms. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. |
What you need to do to qualify
Neither credit is automatic, and the two work differently.
Kalshi: register with promo code PRED100, verify your identity, and settle at least $25 in qualifying trades inside the promotional window. Trades count cumulatively, so it doesn’t have to be one position, and the credit lands whether those trades go your way or not.
Polymarket US: register through the offer link, verify your identity, and deposit at least $10. The $20 credit is tied to that qualifying deposit rather than to a trading volume target.
On both platforms the credit arrives as trading credit rather than withdrawable cash, and it expires if left unused. Check the current terms on the platform’s own offer page before you fund an account, because both platforms change these offers regularly.
The risk
Trading event contracts involves risk of loss and isn’t suitable for everyone. Qualifying means funding the account and, on Kalshi, putting your own money into contracts first, and a contract can settle at $0. A credit doesn’t offset that.
Age and where the offer applies
You need to be 18 or older with a legal US residential address on either platform. Offer eligibility is narrower than platform availability. A state where you can open an account and trade midterm contracts may still be excluded from the credit, so check the offer terms for your state.
Kalshi on the midterms
Kalshi lists individual House district markets alongside Senate races, governor races, primaries, and margin-of-victory questions, so it suits you if you want to follow specific districts. It runs on web, iOS, and Android, with ACH, debit card, wire, and crypto funding and a $10 minimum bank deposit. The trade-off: a long market list doesn’t mean every market has trading behind it, and depth drops off sharply below the chamber-control markets.
Polymarket US on the midterms
Polymarket US goes wider rather than deeper, covering individual Senate and governor races, House and Senate seat counts, turnout, and popular vote. It suits you if you want the shape of the result more than specific districts. Access is more limited: US trading runs through the iOS app, Android is listed as coming soon, and US users can’t trade on the international site. ACH deposits can take three to four business days, and no US minimum trade size is published.
Polymarket or Kalshi for Midterm Election Odds
If you are looking for 2026 midterm betting odds, it is important to understand the difference between traditional betting odds and prediction market prices. While betting sites typically quote odds, prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket US use contract prices that reflect the market’s estimate of an outcome’s probability.
Both platforms have live markets covering the 2026 midterms, but the experience is not identical. The differences are most noticeable in market depth, platform access, funding options, and, importantly, the exact rules behind contracts that may look similar at first glance.
| Kalshi US | Polymarket US | |
| Regulatory framing | CFTC-regulated designated contract market | CFTC-regulated designated contract market |
| Platform access (web / iOS / Android) | Web, iOS and Android | iOS app for US users; Android is listed as coming soon; US trading is not available on the international website |
| Number of 2026 midterm markets | 1500+ | 5000+ |
| Down-ballot depth (Senate / Gov / seat count) | Individual House districts, Senate races, governor races, primary markets, margins and chamber questions | Individual Senate races, governor races, House and Senate seat counts, turnout, popular vote and other midterm markets |
| Trading fees | Transaction fees vary by market, with some markets also carrying maker fees | Politics markets can charge taker fees; maker/taker treatment and fees are set by the exchange |
| Minimum trade size | Generally one contract, subject to the individual market and order ticket. | No publicly mentioned minimum trade size |
| Funding methods | ACH/bank transfer, debit card, crypto, wire, and other supported methods. Kalshi’s minimum bank deposit is $10; its wire minimum is $1,000. | Fiat-based US trading. Polymarket US documentation supports debit-card and bank-transfer funding; ACH deposits can require 3–4 business days to clear, and deposits undergo KYC/AML checks. |
| Settlement source for election markets | Contract-specific. The market identifies its source; examples include Congress or the Library of Congress. | Contract-specific. The House-control market names relevant state electoral authorities and the US House of Representatives |
| Runoff / tiebreak handling | Contract-specific. Check whether the market waits for a runoff or uses another defined trigger. | The House-control market counts the final runoff result when assigning a seat. If no party wins a majority, control is determined under the market’s Speaker-based rule |
| Stated minimum age | 18+, subject to eligibility and account requirements. | 18+, subject to eligibility and account requirements. |
| States excluded | Nevada | Nevada |
Why the prices can be different
The same midterm outcome can have different prices on Kalshi and Polymarket US. On August 30, 2026, for example, Polymarket US had Republicans at 52¢ and Democrats at 47¢ for Senate control, while its House market had Democrats at 84¢ and Republicans at 16¢.
Prices move based on the people trading on each platform, so differences are normal. But don’t just compare the numbers. Check what each contract is actually asking and how it settles.
That matters most when the Senate is close. A runoff, a 50-50 split, or the platform’s definition of “control” can affect which outcome wins. Before trading, read the contract rules, especially the resolution source and how those situations are handled.
When Kalshi suits you better
Kalshi may suit you if you want:
- More ways to access the platform, including web, iOS and Android.
- More funding options, including bank transfers, cards and other supported methods.
- Individual House district markets and other down-ballot contracts alongside the major House and Senate questions.
The downside is that market depth is not the same across every contract. A platform can list a large number of election markets, but that does not mean everyone has the same level of trading activity or ease of exit.
When Polymarket suits you better
Polymarket US may suit you if you want to follow:
- Individual Senate and governor races alongside House and Senate control.
- Seat-count markets, turnout and popular-vote questions.
- A wider mix of ways to track how the 2026 midterms are developing beyond the two chamber-control markets.
The trade-off is that the information available for some practical details, such as minimum trade size, may not be as clearly published in the Polymarket US materials reviewed for this article. Market depth can also vary widely from one election contract to another.
How Midterm Election Markets Work
Prediction markets turn a political question into a contract you can buy and sell. The price tells you what the market is currently willing to pay for a particular outcome, not what will definitely happen.
Each market has a Yes and No side
A simple market might ask: “Will Party X control the Senate after the 2026 midterms?” You can buy:
- Yes, if you want exposure to that outcome happening.
- No, if you want exposure to it not happening.
The contract price usually sits between $0.01 and $0.99. A winning contract settles at $1, while the losing side settles at $0.
Prices and payouts
A contract trading at 60¢ roughly represents a 60% implied probability. It is a price created by traders, not a guarantee or a formal forecast.
So, if Democratic control of a chamber is trading at 60¢, the market is currently pricing that outcome at roughly 60%. Prices can change throughout the campaign as traders react to polls, primaries, fundraising, economic data and other developments.
Suppose you buy 100 Yes contracts at 60¢ each.
- Contract cost: 100 × $0.60 = $60.00
- Implied probability: approximately 60%
- Settlement value if Yes wins: 100 × $1.00 = $100.00
- Gross profit before fees: $100 − $60 = $40
- Gross return on the amount paid: approximately 66.7%
Before fees, your break-even probability is the price itself: a 60¢ contract has to come in at least 60% of the time to be worth 60¢.
Now assume that the transaction fee on the purchase is $1.20. Your total outlay becomes $61.20.
If Yes wins: $100.00 − $61.20 = $38.80 net profit
Your effective break-even probability is now 61.2%, because you need the $100 settlement to cover a $61.20 outlay, not a $60.00 one. Fee structures vary by platform and, in some cases, by market, so check the fee shown before placing an order. Kalshi says its transaction fees are generally based on the expected earnings of a contract, with some markets using different fee schedules.
If Yes loses, the other side of the trade is easy to overlook:
- Settlement value: $0
- Loss before fees: $60.00
- Loss including the illustrative $1.20 fee: $61.20
Buying a contract at 60¢ does not mean your maximum loss is 40¢. If the contract settles at zero, you lose the full amount you paid for it.
Trading event contracts involves risk of loss and isn’t suitable for everyone.
Multi-outcome markets
Not every market is a single question with one Yes and one No contract. A market covering Senate control, for example, can list Democratic and Republican outcomes within the same event.
In that case, you trade the specific outcome you want exposure to rather than buying a spread across the whole event. The same applies to markets covering seat totals or ranges.
Markets may not settle on election night
A race being called on election night does not necessarily mean a contract settles immediately. The market’s resolution rules determine what counts as a final result.
For the current 2026 House and Senate control markets, Polymarket names official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting as its resolution sources.
Kalshi’s current House control market names the Library of Congress as its verification source and provides rules for determining control, including a February 2027 fallback based on the Speaker’s party affiliation. Its Senate market similarly provides for a later determination if control is not settled earlier.
That means certification, recounts, runoffs, or other unresolved questions can keep a market open after election night. Always check the exact rules on the individual market, because the market title alone does not define every edge case.
Exiting before settlement
You don’t necessarily have to hold a position until the market resolves.
If you buy a contract at 60¢ and later sell it at 72¢, you can lock in a gross gain of 12¢ per contract before any applicable selling fees.
The opposite can also happen. If the price falls to 35¢, selling at that point means accepting a loss compared with your 60¢ entry.
The displayed price also isn’t always the price at which your entire order will execute. Polymarket says its displayed price is generally the midpoint between the best bid and ask, although it uses the last traded price when the spread is particularly wide. That means the headline price may differ from what you actually pay to buy or receive when selling.
Why volume and liquidity matter
Volume tells you how much trading has taken place. Liquidity affects how easily you can enter or exit a position without substantially moving the price.
A market can show a very precise-looking probability while having relatively little trading behind it. In a thin market, a small number of trades or a wide gap between buyers and sellers can have an outsized effect on the displayed price.
Before putting too much weight on a market price, look at:
- Total and recent trading volume.
- The current bid and ask.
- How much is available at those prices.
- Whether the market moves sharply after relatively small trades.
A heavily traded House-control market is likely to provide a stronger read on current market sentiment than a thinly traded down-ballot race, but volume alone does not make a price objectively correct.
Crowd sentiment and polarized races
High-profile political races can attract traders who have strong personal or ideological views about the outcome. Viral news, partisanship and emotionally charged events can all affect how people position themselves.
That is a reason to be cautious when interpreting a price, not a reason to automatically take the other side. A market can attract emotional trading and still incorporate useful information.
The better approach is to look at the price alongside the market’s rules, trading activity, and other available information instead of treating a single number as an unquestionable forecast.
Common beginner mistakes
The biggest mistakes are usually very straightforward:
- Treating the price as a definitive forecast rather than a market estimate.
- Ignoring transaction fees and bid-ask spreads.
- Assuming the displayed price is the exact price an order will execute at.
- Failing to read the resolution wording and named source.
- Assuming an election-night call automatically means a contract will settle.
- Confusing a specific outcome contract with a seat-range contract.
- Forgetting that selling before settlement can lock in a loss.
- Treating a thinly traded market as a strong consensus.
- Over-concentrating on one race, party or chamber outcome.
- Focusing on the possible payout without considering that a losing contract settles at $0.
Before taking a position, the simplest questions are often the most important: What exactly am I buying? What source determines the result? What will I pay after fees? What can I lose? And how easily could I exit the position?
Pivotal 2026 Midterm Election Prices and Predictions
As of August 30, 2026, the 2026 midterm markets are pointing to a split picture: Democrats are heavily favored to win control of the House, while the Senate remains much tighter, with Republicans holding only a narrow edge.
Below, we look at the current prices for both chambers, the closest Senate and governor races, and the factors behind the biggest moves.
Which Party Will Win the US House?
The changing contract prices provide one way to follow how expectations around the 2026 midterm election are developing over the course of the cycle.
| Prediction market app | Democratic | Republican |
| Polymarket prices | 84¢ | 16¢ |
| Kalshi prices | 85¢ | 15¢ |
Both platforms have Democrats well ahead to win the House. The gap suggests the market is pricing in Democrats gaining enough seats to take control.
Kalshi’s price chart shows the Democratic implied probability moving across the cycle, not holding at one level. After falling into the mid-70% range around late 2025, it recovered to 85% as of the August 30, 2026 capture at 2:00 AM ET. A price chart records where a market has traded; it does not indicate how the market will resolve.
Which Party Will Control the US Senate?
For readers comparing the odds for the 2026 midterm elections, the Senate market is particularly important because control of the chamber can depend on a relatively small number of competitive races.
| Prediction market app | Democratic | Republican |
| Polymarket prices | 47¢ | 52¢ |
| Kalshi prices | 48¢ | 52¢ |
Republicans currently hold a 53–47 Senate majority, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51 and take outright control. This arithmetic helps explain why the Senate remains such a closely contested midterm market: Democrats need to gain enough Republican-held seats while holding on to the seats they already have.
Balance of Power / Trifecta
| Prediction market app | Democratic sweep | D-House, R-Senate | Republican sweep | R-House, D-Senate |
| Polymarket prices | 47% | 40% | 17% | 2% |
| Kalshi prices | 47% | 39% | 15% | 1.3% |
The two markets are broadly telling the same story: a Democratic sweep is the most likely outcome, closely followed by a split Congress with Democrats holding the House and Republicans holding the Senate.
A Republican sweep is a more distant possibility, while a Republican House and Democratic Senate split is the least likely outcome.
Closest Senate Races
Kalshi’s Closest Senate Race market measures something different from a standard race-winner market: it asks which state’s Senate election will have the smallest margin of victory, rather than which candidate will win.
| Race | Candidates | Kalshi price |
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson (Republican Party), Josh Turek (Democratic Party) | 13% |
| Texas | James Talarico (Democratic Party), Ken Paxton (Republican Party) | 13% |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola (Democratic Party), Dan Sullivan (Republican Party), plus a third candidate advancing under Alaska’s top-four primary; the general is decided by ranked-choice voting | 10% |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown (Democratic Party), Jon Husted (Republican Party) | 10% |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed (Democratic Party), Mike Rogers (Republican Party) | 9.9% |
| Maine | Troy Jackson (Democratic Party), Susan Collins (Republican Party): general decided by ranked-choice voting | 8.5% |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts (Republican Party), Dan Osborn (Independent) | 7.7% |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall (Republican Party), Adam Hamilton (Democratic Party) | 6% |
There is no equivalent closest senate race market shown on Polymarket US, so there is no directly comparable Polymarket price to include in this table.
Closest Governor Races
Kalshi’s “Closest Governor race this year?” market ranks the states most likely to produce the narrowest margin of victory in a 2026 governor’s race. This is not the same as a market predicting which candidate will win each race.
| Race | Candidates | Kalshi price |
| Ohio | Amy Acton (Democratic Party), Vivek Ramaswamy (Republican Party) | 17% |
| Iowa | Rob Sand (Democratic Party), Zach Lahn (Republican Party) | 11% |
| Wisconsin | David Crowley (Democratic Party), Tom Tiffany (Republican Party) | 9.9% |
| Georgia | Keisha Lance Bottoms (Democratic Party), Rick Jackson (Republican Party) | 7.6% |
| Nevada | Aaron Ford (Democratic Party), Joe Lombardo (Republican Party) | 7% |
| Kansas | Cindy Holscher (Democratic Party), Ty Masterson (Republican Party) | 6% |
| Michigan | Jocelyn Benson (Democratic Party), John James (Republican Party) | 5.5% |
| Arizona | Katie Hobbs (Democratic Party), Andy Biggs (Republican Party) | 4.3% |
Ohio leads this particular market at 17%, followed by Iowa and Wisconsin. The probabilities then drop off gradually, with Georgia, Nevada, Kansas, Michigan and Arizona all still included among the leading states.
Governors elected in 2026 will also be in office during the 2030 redistricting cycle, giving several of these races significance beyond the immediate result.
Other Midterm Election Markets
House and Senate control markets are the headline acts, but there are other ways to follow and trade the 2026 midterms. Here are some of the other election markets currently available, covering everything from seat totals and redistricting to polling and voter turnout.
Democratic vs Republican Seat Counts
If you have a more specific view of how the election will play out, seat-count markets let you trade on the number of seats a party will win.
These are range markets, so the exact number matters. A contract might cover Democrats winning a certain number of House seats, for example. Your trade settles based on whether the final result falls within the range you selected, not simply on whether Democrats or Republicans performed well overall.
Each contract names the source used to determine the final result, and the platform uses that source when the market settles.
Redistricting
The mid-decade map fights in Texas and California have become one of the defining structural stories of the 2026 House elections. Texas redrew its congressional map to give Republicans an advantage in additional districts, while California responded with new boundaries designed to improve Democratic opportunities.
That matters to House prediction markets because redistricting can change a district’s political makeup without any candidate gaining or losing support. If a new map creates more districts that lean toward one party, the expected House seat count can move before a single vote is cast.
The live market tracks which states will have new congressional maps in place before the midterms, adding another way to follow the changes that could affect the House map.
Generic Ballot and Trump Approval Markets
These are two of the early indicators worth watching before the House control markets settle into a clearer picture.
- Generic ballot markets track which party voters say they would support in a hypothetical congressional election. They give traders an early read on the broader political environment, which is why they can move well before individual races or House control markets fully react. The market settles based on the polling measure and rules specified for that contract.
- Trump approval markets track whether Trump’s approval reaches a particular level during the period set out in the market rules. These can move quickly in response to polling changes and major political developments.
Neither market decides who controls the House. Instead, they give traders an earlier sense of where the political environment may be heading, which is why they can move ahead of the control markets.
Voter Turnout
The turnout market asks how many votes will be cast across the 2026 US House elections, with contracts covering different turnout ranges and thresholds. This market resolves using the officially certified vote count from the Clerk of the House. Preliminary counts, projections, and exit polls do not determine the outcome.
The final certified total is what matters, including ballots counted as part of the official result and any certified aggregate totals where elections are completed in multiple phases.
Prices vs Polls: What the Market Sees That Polling Does Not
Polling and prediction markets approach the same election question from different directions.
A poll asks a sample of voters for their views at a particular point in time. A prediction market reflects the prices traders are willing to pay for different outcomes, with those prices changing as people buy and sell contracts.
That can make markets useful between major polls. If new polling, economic data, or a major political development changes expectations, you may see the market react before the next round of polling is published.
But the price is not automatically smarter because money is involved. A market with little trading can move on a relatively small order, and a handful of traders with large positions can have a noticeable impact on the price. Markets have also got major elections wrong, so a contract trading at 80¢ is not the same thing as an 80% reliable forecast.
The best way to use both is to put them side by side. Check what recent polls are showing, then look at where the market is trading and how actively it is being traded.
Can You Legally Trade Midterm Election Contracts in Your State?
Midterm election contracts are traded on exchanges that operate under federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight. This does not mean the CFTC approves every contract individually. Instead, the exchanges operate within the federal regulatory framework for designated contract markets.
The state-level position is more complicated, and the most useful thing to understand about it is that most of it has nothing to do with election markets.
Nearly every state challenge brought against these platforms so far has targeted sports event contracts specifically. State gaming regulators and attorneys general have argued that sports event contracts fall under their state gambling licensing laws. Election, economic, weather and culture markets have largely not been the subject of those actions.
That distinction matters to you for a practical reason: a state can restrict sports event contracts while leaving election contracts live on the same platform. Massachusetts is the clearest example. A state court injunction there bars Kalshi from offering sports event contracts to Massachusetts residents, and that order is about sports, not politics. A platform can therefore be partly restricted in a state rather than switched off entirely.
The follow-on point is just as useful. A state that appears on someone else’s “banned” or “restricted” list may still allow election markets. Those lists are usually assembled from sports-contract enforcement actions and then presented as if the whole platform were unavailable. Before you assume you are locked out, check whether the restriction you have read about applies to sports event contracts or to the category you actually want to trade.
Nevada is the exception rather than the rule. It has taken the broadest position of any state, both Polymarket US and Kalshi exclude it, and the dispute has run through the state courts to the Ninth Circuit. Minnesota shows how quickly this moves in the other direction. A state law criminalizing prediction markets was due to take effect on August 1, 2026, and a federal judge blocked it days beforehand on the basis that federal law likely preempts a state ban on CFTC-regulated event contracts.
This position can change month to month, and sometimes week to week. Before funding an account to trade on the 2026 midterms, check the platform’s own state-availability information for the most up-to-date position: Kalshi’s regulatory notices page and Polymarket US’s terms and jurisdiction information. Both platforms also verify your location at sign-up and gate markets accordingly, so the app itself is the final answer for your state.
How Midterm Trading Proceeds Are Taxed
Any money you make or lose trading midterm election contracts can have tax implications. You are also responsible for keeping track of your trading activity, even when a platform does not send you a tax form.
Keep records of your contract purchases and sales, settlement proceeds, fees, credits, and withdrawals. The information below is based on what Kalshi and Polymarket currently publish about their account and tax documentation.
Kalshi tax documents
Kalshi may issue tax forms to users who meet the relevant IRS reporting thresholds. Its help center currently lists:
- 1099-INT for interest payments from Kalshi.
- 1099-MISC for certain credits and rewards.
- 1099-B for transaction proceeds from broker transactions involving crypto transfers.
- 1099-DA for applicable digital-asset transactions reported through ZeroHash.
Kalshi says users who receive more than $10 in annual interest payments may receive a 1099-INT. Users who receive more than $600 in incentive credits, including certain referral rewards, may receive a 1099-MISC.
Kalshi also provides a yearly Profit and Loss statement through Account → Tax Info. It uses FIFO to calculate profits and losses, with fees and rebates included in the P&L figure.
Don’t rely on a tax form alone
A tax form from Kalshi will not necessarily show everything connected to your account activity. You should still keep your own record of trades, fees, credits, deposits and withdrawals.
Kalshi also makes it clear that its P&L statement is there to help you review your activity. It does not determine how everything should be reported on your return. And if you don’t receive a form, don’t assume there is nothing to report. Kalshi says users who don’t see a 1099 may simply not have met the threshold for that form.
Polymarket US tax documentation
Polymarket does not currently publish tax documentation or IRS reporting thresholds for US users in its publicly available help-center material.
So far, Polymarket has not published any indication that it provides a standard year-end tax form covering your midterm election contract activity. You will need to keep your own transaction history and account records rather than waiting for a platform-issued summary.
That includes the details of every contract you buy, sell, or hold until settlement, along with fees, deposits, withdrawals, and any relevant wallet transactions.
Stablecoin transactions can add another record to keep
If your platform account uses USDC or another stablecoin, keep track of those transactions separately.
For example, you might make a profit when an election contract settles and receive USDC as a result. Later, you may move that USDC to another wallet, exchange it for another digital asset, or sell it.
Those later transactions can have their own tax implications. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) generally treats digital assets as property, so you may need to record sales or exchanges separately from the original contract trade.
USDC is designed to stay close to $1, so any gain or loss from price changes may be small. Still, it is worth keeping a record of when you received it and what you later did with it.
What you should save
Keep a record of:
- Contract purchases and sales.
- The date, quantity, and price of each trade.
- Contract settlements.
- Trading fees and rebates.
- Promotional credits and rewards.
- Deposits and withdrawals.
- USDC or other digital-asset transfers.
Saving this information as you go is much easier than piecing it together months later. If you are unsure how a particular trade or transaction should be reported, check with a qualified tax professional.
Other Politics Markets Available to US Users
If you want to trade political events beyond the 2026 midterms, these are some of the major markets currently available:
- 2028 US Presidential Election Winner (Polymarket): Trade on the candidate who will win the 2028 presidential election, with the contract settling according to the market’s stated resolution criteria.
- 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Polymarket): Trade on who will become the Democratic Party’s nominee for president in 2028, with settlement based on the criteria set out in the market rules.
- 2028 Republican Presidential Nominee (Polymarket): Covers who will become the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee and settles according to the outcome defined in the contract.
- Will Trump Be Impeached? (Kalshi): Covers whether Donald Trump will be impeached by the date and under the conditions specified in the contract.
- US-Iran Nuclear Deal (Kalshi): Covers whether the US and Iran will reach a nuclear deal before the deadline set out in the contract, subject to its specific resolution criteria.
Midterm Election Odds FAQs
Is trading on the 2026 midterm elections legal in the US?
2026 midterm election contracts are available through event-contract platforms operating under federal commodities regulation and CFTC oversight. That does not mean the CFTC has approved a particular market or guaranteed that every contract is available to every US resident.
Access can also depend on state-level restrictions and ongoing legal disputes. Before trading, check both the platform’s eligibility rules and the availability of the specific market in your state.
Is trading midterm election contracts legal in my state?
It depends on where you live and which platform you use. Platform availability is not always an all-or-nothing question. Most state action against prediction markets has been aimed at sports event contracts rather than election markets, so a state can restrict sports contracts while election contracts stay available on the same platform. A state you have seen listed as “restricted” elsewhere may still have access to midterm markets.
Nevada is currently the clearest example of a state excluded from the US offerings of both Kalshi and Polymarket. The position in other states can change as court cases and regulatory disputes develop, so check Kalshi’s regulatory notices or Polymarket US’s terms before you fund an account.
What are the current midterm election odds for the House and Senate?
As of August 30, 2026, the House market was trading at around 84% to 85% for the Democratic Party, while the Republican Party was around 15% to 16%. The Senate market was much closer, with the Republican Party around 52% and the Democratic Party around 47% to 48%.
These figures are market prices at a specific point in time and can change throughout the day. Check the live market for the latest House and Senate prices before relying on a number quoted here.
Are prediction market prices the same as betting odds?
Not exactly. A prediction market price reflects what traders are currently willing to pay for a contract that usually settles at either $1 or $0.
A price of 60¢ is therefore commonly interpreted as roughly a 60% market-implied probability. The actual price can also reflect liquidity, fees, spreads, and trading activity, so it should not be treated as a precise forecast.
What does a 60¢ contract price actually mean?
If you buy one “Yes” contract for 60¢, you pay $0.60. If the contract resolves in your favor, it settles at $1. Your gross profit is 40¢ before fees. If it resolves against you, the contract settles at $0, and you lose the 60¢ you paid, plus any applicable fees.
For 100 contracts, that means:
- Cost: $60
- Payout if Yes wins: $100
- Gross profit: $40
- Payout if Yes loses: $0
- Gross loss: $60
The important point is that the full amount paid for the contract is at risk.
What types of 2026 midterm markets can I trade on Polymarket and Kalshi?
Depending on what is listed and available in your location, midterm markets can cover:
- House control
- Senate control
- Which party controls both chambers
- Party seat totals
- Specific seat ranges
- Individual House and Senate races
- Governor races
- Primary and nomination outcomes
- Election margins and other race-specific outcomes
Each contract has its own wording and settlement rules. In a market covering a seat total or range, the outcome named on the contract is what matters. A contract covering one specific range only settles in your favor if the final result meets that contract’s exact terms.
Which platform has more 2026 midterm markets?
Both platforms list far more than the two chamber-control markets, but they go deep in different places. Kalshi’s 2026 midterm listings include individual House and Senate races, district-level markets, and questions about margins of victory. Polymarket US lists individual Senate and governor races, House and Senate seat counts, turnout, and popular-vote markets.
If you want district-level House markets, Kalshi is where they are. If you want seat-count, turnout, or popular-vote questions, Polymarket US carries those. Both add markets as November gets closer, so each platform’s own midterm page is the current answer on what is live.
Can I track midterm election predictions without trading?
Yes, you can view market prices and follow changes without placing a trade.
Public market pages can show the current contract price, historical price movements, trading activity, and market rules. This can be useful if you want to follow how market expectations change during the campaign without opening a position.
Keep an eye on volume as well. A price in a lightly traded market may be based on limited activity and can move sharply.
Can I sell a midterm contract before election day?
Usually, yes. You do not necessarily have to hold a contract until it settles.
For example, if you buy at 60¢ and later sell at 72¢, you can close the position and realize the difference before settlement, subject to fees. If the price falls to 35¢ and you sell, you realize a loss compared with what you paid.
The price shown on the market page is not always the exact price at which your full order will execute. In a less liquid market, spreads and limited demand can mean you receive a worse price than expected.
Are prediction market proceeds taxable?
Potentially, yes. You are generally responsible for tracking your trading activity and determining what needs to be reported.
Kalshi says it may issue tax documents for users who meet applicable IRS reporting thresholds, including forms relating to interest, rewards, and certain crypto or digital-asset transactions. Its account tax information and P&L records can help with recordkeeping, but they do not replace your responsibility to report your activity accurately.
Polymarket does not currently publish comparable tax documentation or reporting thresholds for US users in its public help center. That makes it particularly important to keep your own records of contract purchases, sales, settlements, fees, deposits, and withdrawals.
