We can’t say we’re terribly surprised to learn today that Jesse Kelly will not running in Congressional District 2 later this year after losing to Democrat Ron Barber by nearly 7 percentage points.
Sure, Kelly said he was “absolutely” going to stay in the race before the election, but Kelly said many things during the campaign that weren’t true.
Kelly has now gone 0-2 in a GOP district. His negatives are huge; even if Public Policy Polling’s sample of the district was a bit off in the survey done right before the election, the numbers there were grim: 59 percent of the voters had an unfavorable view of Kelly, compared to the 37 percent who had a favorable view.
Part of that comes from the drubbing that Kelly took through the Democratic Party’s TV ads, but part of it comes from his general approach to politics. He is a very superficial candidate who can smoothly deliver talking points, but he can’t discuss any policy in any kind of depth. That’s why he avoided interview not only with the Weekly, but with the morning daily and other press outlets. By the time the weekend before the election arrived, Kelly was being kept under such tight wraps that he wouldn’t make his campaign schedule public, outside a brief dog-and-pony show at his campaign office on Saturday morning.
(And how about Kelly’s disastrous interview with KGUN-9? Admittedly, that meltdown was mostly the fault of his spokesman, John Ellinwood, but Kelly’s weird repeating of his talking points should be used in a classroom as an example of how to not deal with the media.)
At any rate, Kelly might have been competitive in the CD2 GOP primary, but as a general-election candidate, he had no path to victory. He would have struggled to raise funds and there was no way, given finite resources, that the National Republican Congressional Committee was going to pour more money into a Kelly campaign this fall. The D.C. establishment has given Kelly support twice now and it has nothing to show for it. There was not going to be a third time.
The focus now turns to Republican Martha McSally, who will be facing Barber (unless state lawmaker Matt Heinz manages an unlikely upset in the August Democratic primary.)
As we mention in this week’s story on the election, McSally is a former Air Force fighter pilot who made her political debut in the CD 8 special-election primary. She came in second to Kelly in that four-person race, winning 25 percent of the vote to Kelly’s 35 percent.
McSally does not have all of Kelly’s extremist baggage, but she’s entering a district that’s much more favorable to Democrats than the old CD8. While Republicans hold a voter-registration advantage of about 6 percentage points in the current Congressional District 8, both parties have about 34 percent of the voters in the new Congressional District 2, with independents making up most of the remainder of the voters.
While we haven’t run the numbers ourselves, we’re told by Dem sources that in the areas of CD8 that remain in the new CD2, Barber won 53 percent to 44 percent. As for the new parts of CD2, Obama won 67 percent of the vote in 2008, so it’s not GOP-friendly territory.
This article appears in Jun 14-20, 2012.
Good riddance.
I’m mystified why Kelly didn’t run for office in Texas. He’s obviously Texas to the core without an ounce of Arizona in him.
grandpa get off me, you’re crushin’ my smokes.
BYE BYE MESSY SMELLY(OOPS!) I MEAN JESSE KELLY!
Jesse Kelly may have been working in Texas on a Don Kelly Construction project since 2010, but there’s no Texan in him. Just listen to him and you’d know that. I think he might be from Montana, but it’s hard to find out any facts about his past except that he was a Marine, and even that record has been kept superficial.
Jesse was the dumbest kid in class and everyone knew it – except for him. I blame mom, dad and ole’ grandpa for heaping waaaaaaaaay too much praise on him during his overprotected childhood. In 2008, Kelly registered to vote in a primary election for the very first time, so just how interested was he in “public service” to begin with?? The Republicans should be ashamed of promoting such as unqualified and divisive candidate. I’ll be interested in seeing how Mr. Kelly uses his free time to serve his community- wherever that happens to be. One more thing- pick up your damn signs.
Guess it really gives you a high to stomp on a dead body. And already starting to stomp on the next live one.
I think either Barber or Heinz is going to have a tough time against McSally in the fall. A Republican woman who doesn’t seem to be a brainless, mean-spirited neo-con? She’ll pull a lot of independents.
I’m liking this idea of McSally vs Barber.
“McSally spokesman Sam Stone said the retired colonel is happy to “not be drawn down into a dogfight of a primary.”” http://www.tucsonsentinel.com/local/report…
Let’s have a decent election with actual issues being discussed instead of dogma and bumper-sticker solutions being tossed about for everything.
Will we get it?
Yes please go pick up all those giant ugly ass signs. Now.
Can someone please explain the connection between Jesus and assault rifles? The scary thing is that many voters DID cast their ballots for this lout…
As per the commentary above, libs not only show themselves to be sore losers, but they lack class even when they “win”. Many of the liberal “civility intelligentsia” continually show themselves to be low-functioning riff-raff – complete with middle-school, potty-mouth mentalities.
@Colt Cassidy- Stop it. Your side is NO damn better, and in fact made up the pity-party rules you’re whining about.
He’s a male version of Sarah Palin. I wish someone had asked him what books he’s been reading lately.
It’s just nice to see him go….but we are reminded of him everyday w/his fathers company laying sewer pipe to our toilets.
As far as his signs…..we will have too Peri them out of his supporters cold dead hands.
Don’t worry folks. The “New Republican Party(tm)” can be depended upon to find another mindless drone to be programmed to spout right-wing talking points ad nauseum…
Since that’s the ONLY kind of candidate that can win a republican primary…
So, Jim Nintzel, your job is safe… 🙂
I posted this on the AZ Daily Red Star yesterday.
I for one am glad he is gone. It was embarassing to look at the video of him and his grandfather, promising to protect SS and Medicare, when two years ago or more, he said on tape, he wanted to eventually eliminate both. Ponzi scheme I believe he said. This time around he chose not to even admit he said those things, hoping everyone would look past it. He was wrong. Look, you say those things, you own them. In the end, he was owned by them. Good riddence.
I am sorry, but he came off as a bit of a shallow, phoney puppet.