The latest COVID-19 report from a University of Arizona professor shows an increase in already alarming coronavirus numbers as the state continues to set records for weekly case counts. Those numbers are likely even higher in reality because of a backlog in reporting.
Dr. Joe Gerald, who creates weekly coronavirus epidemiology reports based on Arizona Department of Health Services data, had little good news to share in this week’s report.
“The [coronavirus] is mowing through Arizona like a sharpened scythe,” Gerald wrote in the report. “Fatalities are stacking up like cordwood in advance of a long winter. Barring intervention, daily cases and fatalities will double or perhaps quadruple before the outbreak collapses under the weight of natural, not vaccine-induced, immunity later this spring.”
The week ending Jan. 3 saw 56,108 new COVID-19 cases statewide, a 35% increase from the week prior.
Coronavirus testing positivity reached 35% that week, setting a new record for the state.
Arizona has also surpassed its deadliest week from the summer surge in cases, and the week ending Dec. 20 now holds the highest number of COVID-19 deaths at 709. Gerald predicts weekly death counts will exceed 700 in the coming weeks.
Gerald said testing capacity and uptake remains lower than levels observed on Dec. 20, indicating the reported numbers are likely higher in reality.
“The test positivity rate for traditional . . . PCR testing set another record this week at 35% positivity,” he wrote. “This indicates a substantial mismatch between testing capacity and demand and supports the notion that viral transmission is growing faster than case counts alone would suggest, that our viral control measures are wholly inadequate, and our testing capacity compared to other regions is poor.”
Pima County reported 7,470 positive COVID-19 tests the week ending Jan. 3, a 25% increase from the previous week, Gerald reported.
Furthermore, the CDC has indicated Arizona has a faster transmission rate than any other state.
As of Jan. 3, new COVID-19 cases in Arizona were appearing at a rate of 780 cases per 100,000 of the population, a rate that’s increasing by nearly 220 cases per 100,000 a week.
Hospitals continue to feel COVID-19 strain
Gerald reported that as of Jan. 7, 57% of the state’s general ward hospital beds were occupied by COVID-19 patients. Of Arizona’s ICU beds, 63% held coronavirus patients.
“COVID-19 occupied ICU beds and percent occupancy have never been higher.”
Many of the state’s hospitals are having to prioritize care, and according to Gerald, patients who would’ve received in-patient hospital care four to eight weeks ago are now receiving care in outpatient settings.
“Make no mistake, the COVID-19 crisis is now placing a greater share of Arizonans at risk, not just those unfortunate enough to contract COVID-19,” he said. “Nevertheless, the fact that our hospitals have demonstrated such resilience is a testament to the planning, skill, and sacrifice of many health professionals and administrators who will likely never be recognized.”
Call to action
Gerald is calling for a statewide shelter-in-place order to slow transmission of the virus, with state funds allocated to “alleviate food insecurity, to prevent evictions and foreclosures, and to protect access to health services.”
Gerald acknowledged further statewide mitigation is unlikely under Gov. Doug Ducey and said mitigation policy should be granted to counties to implement and enforce.
“While Arizonans’ poor individual decisions are undoubtedly contributing to viral spread, the Governor’s inaction in the face of a clear and present danger is of greater concern,” he said. “Most recently, he has performed more poorly than other governors, but more importantly, he has performed more poorly compared to his prior success this summer.”
This article appears in Jan 7-13, 2021.
Then the do nothing governor rants during his State of the state address, that school districts, who have to make hard decisions because he won’t, have not been open and are not educating children during this pandemic, because of of bad faith on the part of public schools? Yes, its just to bother Ducey that they are not completely open, while his son parties on. Teachers and administrators are busting their rears to get education to students on some of the most trying circumstances possible, and he is whining. You can’t satisfy the crazies, you can’t do whats right, so just resign and peddle your ice cream.
Dr. Gerald’s use of overly dramatic language like: “The coronavirus is mowing through Arizona like a sharpened scythe” and “Fatalities are stacking up like cordwood in advance of a long winter” show that he could have a second career as a screenwriter.
We gotta keep those bars and restaurants and schools open. Remember, money is more important than grandma and grandpa and those overpaid nurses and teachers and those dumb people who have underlying health conditions. We want MONEY, MONEY, MONEY! (Sarcasm)
I am the author of “PJ Reed. The Arizona State Hospital and Patient Abuse.” In 2011-12 I documented, reported, and thus exposed graphic corruption that extended from offices of ASH’s senior medical providers (see: Dr. Steven Dingle, Dr. Pervaiz Akhter), up through the facility’s administrative offices (see Cory Nelson, Donna Noriega,, et al.), and well into the bureaucratic construct of the AZ Department of Health (see Jeff Bloomberg, Will Humble, et al). I also was the first to report the May, 2011, violent escape of then ASH patient-consumer Jesus Rincon Murrieta (a Tucson kid, 19 yrs old at the time), and ASH-ADHS’ patent failure to report that escape to law enforcement and other like authorities. All of which led to the consequent, otherwise preventable murder of April Mott in late August, 2011. Murrieta, meanwhile, is serving a lengthy prison sentence (on point with the disturbingly related fact that prisons are increasingly becoming the nation’s primary mental hospitals), when he should have been returned to ASH, if only his escape and been diligently reported. These things said, I am now actively demanding that ADHS Director Dr. Cara Christ and ASH CEO Dr. Aaron Bowen diligently report the status of the novel sars coronavirus COVID-19 within the walls and fence lines of ASH…. FACT: In June, 2020, several ASH staff came forward to ABC15 (PHX) and reported the unlawful failure of ADHS to provide sufficient PPE and other such safety standards there at ASH; which Dr. Christ willfully defended (as she always does in such circumstances), while also failing to provide any data about COVID’s presence in the ASH patient population, and other such public data (data not protected by privacy rights [HIPPA]- raw numbers, rather), crucially needed as means to address the rate of COVID in AZ. Plain fact is that all of the patients at ASH are consumers of ADHS services; while all front line staff at ASH are at far higher risk of COVID harms and other like hazards than Dr. Christ, etc., in the ratline safe haven of ADHS office, and even the senior care providers at ASH (psychiatrists, et al) are faced with. What I demand herein is an identification of what may well be a COVID super spreader site and all relevant data. It is readily apparent the ADHS is refusing to provide this critical information with the public, in defiance of the fact that suppression of such data is very capable of putting all AZ citizens at high risk of otherwise preventable COVID harm. This is unacceptable on its face. None of us will be safe until all of us are safe. My prayers are with the citizens of AZ at this troubling time.
I am the author of “PJ Reed. The Arizona State Hospital and Patient Abuse.” As have I already shared, I personally “documented, reported, and thus exposed graphic corruption that extended….. and well into the bureaucratic construct of the AZ Department of Health.” I am compelled to add more fact based information about the long standing chief medical officer at Arizona State Hospital, Dr. Steven Dingle, and ADHS’ current director, Dr. Cara Christ (2015-present). I offer this information merely to provide the public with more data as just who it that you are most depending on with regard to public health and welfare there in Arizona at this horrifically point in time. Dr. Dingle was identified as a sexual predator and censored in that context by the AZ medical association (specific to sexual abuse of women working under his direct authority). After being exposed for being just who he is, in fact, Dingle was hired by ADHS and assigned to work at ASH. This is 100% on point with ADHS’ 2010 hiring of another man (to work as a member of ASH’ security staff) who had already been criminally convicted for sexual exploitation of children, Roger Forney. (Forney was again convicted this monstrous predation on kids in 2013, when he was, in fact, working there at ASH). These things said. ASH is required by state and federal law to serve the healthcare interests of some of America’s most vulnerable and disabled citizens, all of whom are forced through court proceedings to rely on Dr. Dingle and his staff. I was the first to report Dr. Dingle’s sordid and criminal history in 2015 (see: “Of Dr. Steven Dingle……” PJ Reed. The Arizona State Hospital and Patient Abuse. Friday, November 20, 2015). While in 2017, an ASH patient-consumer who learned of my report informed the ADHS-ASH Arizona State Hospital Independent Oversight Committee of his own very justified concerns about having a known sexual predator serving as ASH’s CMO. In direct response to that patient-consumer’s reasonable disagreement over having such a miscreant working anywhere within the ADHS construct, current ADHS Director Dr. Cara Christ patently defended Dr. Dingle’s established history as a known sexual predator and censorship by the AZ medical association in full; deferring the significance of his abject misconduct to the time that had elapsed since Dingle was censored, in fact. This day and age, Dr. Christ’s defense of Dingle and her utter refusal to acknowledge the very nature of Dingle’s documented history, should shock the conscientious of any AZ citizen(s) capable of grasping the stomach turning history of men working in authority over women. But Dr. Christ? No. A critical attendant fact to this story is that ASH staff are told to rely on the analogy “What happens in Las Vegas Stays in Las Vegas” mentality anytime they may so happen to witness any variety of otherwise unacceptable misconduct. Point being that, we the public have no way of being certain that in his many years working there at ASH, Dr. Dingle has not continued in the same sickening behavior that he had previously been willing to engage in (pre-ADHS/ASH). Point in fact. Dr. Cara Christ has been AZ’s most entrusted state health official through the entirety of the COVID public health crisis. I would ask, thus: Is this in any way acceptable? Again, my prayers are with you, Arizona. This is all I can do today.