New York Magazine’s Jonathan Chait suggests that Donald Trump’s presidential campaign is forcing the party to address the issue of immigration in a way that will hurt the eventual GOP nominee’s chances in the 2016 general election:
The worst-case scenario for Republicans is if Trump decides to run a third-party campaign. Even managing to get his name on the ballot in a handful of states would bring victory out of reach for the GOP’s eventual nominee. The best-case scenario is that Trump straggles through the race, eventually supporting the nominee. But this scenario is also far from ideal. It means that Trump has shaped the tenor of the race in almost precisely the opposite way the party establishment had hoped.
Immigration did not represent the totality of the party elite’s strategic response to the 2012 election, but it did constitute its main tenet. The Republican brain trust hoped to resolve its image problem with Latino and Asian-American voters by passing immigration reform as quickly as possible. The purest version of this strategy, articulated by Charles Krauthammer, called for Republicans to fold completely on immigration, and change nothing else about their program. The idea was to take the short-term hit as quickly as possible after the midterms, allowing the base to vent its spleen and make up in time for the presidential campaign. Republicans in the Senate were able to make this happen, but the House proved typically impotent in the face of opposition.
In the wake of this failure, Republicans have vaguely hoped to finesse the issue. Trump is making that difficult. His arch-restrictionist plan — involving mass deportations and a gigantic wall on the Mexican border that Trump, through the use of his uniquely Trumpian negotiating power, would make Mexico finance — has set a standard against which others will be judged. Scott Walker is already bellying up to the bar, comparing himself to the polling leader (“I haven’t looked at all the details of his, but the things I’ve heard are very similar to the things I mentioned”). Given that Trump has made himself the symbol of racism against Mexicans, it is difficult to imagine a simple escape from the party’s branding disasters of the Obama era. But that is what they have, and what they may well continue to have, well into 2016.
Slate’s Jamelle Bouie makes a similar point:
Trump might be a joke, but his plan is not. If implemented, it would bring tremendous suffering to millions of Americans—native-born, naturalized, or otherwise. But because it speaks to the Republican base—in a new CNN poll, 44 percent of self-described Republicans and Republican-leaning independents agree with Trump on “illegal immigration”—it’s getting a fair hearing from serious conservatives.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker said his immigration plan was “similar” to Trump’s; that he would support building a wall along the Mexican border; and that he would consider “changing the rules” on birthright citizenship. Other candidates, like John Kasich and Chris Christie, have echoed Trump’s views on birthright citizenship. Likewise, the editors of National Review called it a “good start” that’s “sensible in its basic outline and better in many respects than the ideas presented by his rivals.”
Nearly three years ago, after the 2012 election, Republican leaders urged a new approach for the party on immigration. They urged inclusive rhetoric and policies to match. They didn’t get far, and a grassroots backlash killed the GOP plan for reform. Now, with Trump, they’ve come full circle. Outreach and persuasion is out for good. Antagonism is the new plan.
This article appears in Aug 13-19, 2015.
In 2012 we had not been made aware of the murderous thugs that snuck into the country. I wonder why not.
Why is it accepted dogma in the media that the only possible approaches to immigration are either the current high-immigration approach that is leading us to massive overpopulation and perpetual low wages and high unemployment or the draconian approach of mass deportation?
There is a middle ground where both legal and illegal immigration could be reduced to more historic levels without any mass deportation or a wall full of alligators.
The only reason I can think of is the smart people who like high immigration rates (hello US Chambe of Commerce and their lackeys in Congress) use a divide and conquer strategy to keep liberals and conservatives at each others’ throats. Since the same people own the media, it’s fairly easy to do.
Oh, please, rat. We’ve been hearing about criminals coming into this country from Mexico since before Reagan signed the Amnesty in 1983. Nice try at revisionist history, though. A for effort.
“If implemented, it would bring tremendous suffering to millions of Americans—native-born, naturalized, or otherwise.”
What does “otherwise” mean? Is the author implying that the illegals are Americans?
And what suffering? Will we suffer because we’re not picking up the tab for illegals? Will we suffer because illegals won’t steal our healthcare resources? Will we suffer because jobs will be available for Americans? Will we suffer because our school seats won’t be filled with illegals, depriving American children of an education?
Keep spreading the lies, keep spreading the hate little Jimmie.
If not now… when? When will we the American citizen say enough is enough? I am in the 50 something crowd and odds are I won’t be around when the country goes the way of Greece (or be to old to care), but the grand-kids will be.
If we don’t get a backbone and stand up and vote these liberal/socialists out and correct the direction we are heading, the younger generation will be standing in line at the ATM getting their $50 per day allowance while the government tries to figure out how to payback China for the money we owe them.
ldonyo, nice try at attacking the messenger but I do not remember this level of violence and murder during the 80s. I was under the impression they were jailed and then deported. This is a new level of ignorance of federal laws that is taking place in the US because of sanctuary cities.
“At least three illegal aliens released by DHS in recent weeks have been charged with serious crimes, including the beating of a 7-week-old baby and immolation of a person, according to local law enforcement and Salmon.”
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/obama-administration-releasing-violent-illegal-immigrants-back-into-u-s-towns/
Can’t stump the Trump.
Deport them all. Let them go home and make their countries worth staying in so they won’t have to leave.
Let’s make America great again. Let’s build that wall and make this land a nation that takes care of it’s own.