LET THE GAMES BEGIN!
It’s on, baby! The city of Tucson election is underway, with early
voting starting Thursday, Oct. 8.
Here’s a new twist in this year’s city election: Pima County will be
managing it instead of the City Clerk’s Office. And that could
significantly boost turnout.
Roughly 61,400 city voters on the new county permanent early-voter
list will be getting ballots in the mail starting this week. In the
past, city voters have had to request an early ballot.
That means more than 27 percent of the 224,000 city voters will soon be holding a ballot. We expect that many of
them will hang on to them for a few weeks, and some may never get
around to sending them back.
But considering that city elections often only see a 25 percent
turnout (four years ago, in the hotly contested 2005 contest, four in
10 voters cast a ballot), we might see a comparatively big
turnout—which, given the city’s Democratic leanings, is probably
good news for Nina Trasoff, Karin Uhlich and Richard
Fimbres.
And now, let us fill you in on a whole host of electoral
tidbits.
ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT
The Public Safety First Initiative keeps picking up opposition. The
Arizona Multihousing Association has joined the Tucson Metropolitan
Chamber of Commerce and Cox Cable in announcing its opposition to
Proposition 200.
Barb Dolan, government affairs liaison for the AMA, said that
Prop 200 would likely force the Tucson City Council to raise taxes or
cut services to pay for the additional police officers and
firefighters. She dismissed the proposition “fiscally irresponsible” in
a statement.
“An unfunded mandate is bad public policy anytime, but especially
with the current economic conditions,” Dolan says. “It does not make
sense to impose this mandate when the city has already experienced
overwhelming budget cuts to services. This mandate will only further
those cuts.”
We hear there may be some high-powered companies coming out against
Prop 200 later this week. Check The Range—blog.tucsonweekly.com—for
developments on that front.
Even Republican Steve Kozachik, who wants to unseat
Democratic City Councilwoman Nina Trasoff, had some second
thoughts about supporting Prop 200 earlier this week.
Kozachik, who has been a firm supporter of the initiative, told us
that he was concerned that the city may not be able to afford it.
Kozachik took another look at the city budget to see if it could afford
the costs of Prop 200, given that City Manager Mike Letcher forecasts a $45.9 million deficit in next year’s budget.
But Kozachik—who complains that the budget is a “damn shell
game,” echoing complaints that Trasoff had when she ran four years ago
against Republican Fred Ronstadt—ultimately decided he
didn’t trust the numbers coming from Letcher, so he decided to stick
with his support of Prop 200.
We’re tight on space, but we’ll take a look at those numbers next
week.
READY TO PAY YOUR PUBLIC-SAFETY BILL?
One of the complaints of Republicans who are supporting the Public
Safety First Initiative is that the city’s estimates of the cost keep
changing.
Yes, it’s too bad that the city can’t run every risky scheme that a
special-interest group cooks up through a simple formula and produce
immediate numbers. All that studyin’ just makes our head hurt.
We’ve been hearing a lot about how Prop 200—which would force
the city to hire an estimated 333 police officers and 70 firefighters
over the next five years (along with more support staff in both
departments) and pay the associated costs of equipping the new
staff—would cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $51 million
annually once it is fully implemented in five years.
But a new report from the city’s Independent Audit and Performance
Commission suggests the price could be even higher. The commission
estimates that the recurring operating costs of the initiative will
actually be $64 million a year once it is fully implemented, with an
additional $3.1 million annually in capital costs. That will be offset
by an estimated $3.3 million new fees and fines collected from
criminals who are caught by the new police officers.
It’s little wonder that the Chamber of Commerce, the apartment lobby
and the cable folks are coming out against this: They’re aware that
they’re the ones who are going to get taxed to pay for it. And they’ll
be passing those costs along to you!
ENOUGH TO PAY FOR A REAL GOOD SALES JOB
If there’s one thing the Prop 200 campaign isn’t short on, it’s
money.
The latest campaign-finance report shows that the Public Safety
First campaign had raised $268,988 through Sept. 21. The Tucson
Association of Realtors and assorted real-estate professionals around
town remain the biggest donors, with TAR giving $135,276. Car dealer
Jim Click kicked in $50K, and the Southern Arizona Home Builders
Association’s total contribution has risen to $30K.
The campaign had spent $239,412, with most of the money moving
through political consultants Zimmerman and Associates.
By contrast, Don’t Handcuff Tucson, the committee that is opposing
Prop 200, had raised about $13,000, although we hear that they’ve
picked up a few big contributions since then. The big question: Will
they be able to start spending it soon enough to reach early
voters?
VISIONARIES REVEALED
Speaking of campaign-finance reports: We got our first peek at the
Tucson Vision Committee when the independent campaign that’s targeting
Democrats with hit ads filed a campaign-finance report.
The biggest contributor is Michael Goodman, the man who is
destroying the quality of life of homeowners north of the University of
Arizona by demolishing existing houses and replacing them with
gargantuan mini-dorms. Goodman kicked in $5,000 of the $9,000 that the
committee reported raising between Sept. 15 and Sept. 21.
The committee showed only three other contributors through Sept. 21,
one of whom isn’t even pretending to be a Tucsonan. That would be
Grace Howard of Phoenix, who kicked in $500.
Investor Charlie Bass, who gave $1,000, and developer
Richard Studwell, who gave $2,500, round out the list of
visionaries. We’re guessing that the next filing will be far more
interesting.
SINKING DEEPER
There’s just enough space to mention that the latest financial
report from the state shows Arizona is still seeing a drop in tax
collections compared to the same month one year ago. That means the
state hasn’t hit bottom in its financial collapse.
Budget gurus now say that the state may be facing a $1.5 billion
shortfall this year, up from an estimated billion dollars just weeks
ago.
We also hear that a special session of the Legislature might be on
the horizon, but probably not until November.
SLOW DOWN, LEADFOOT
One more hot tip: The Tucson Police Department is on the verge of
setting a second photo-radar van loose on the streets to ticket
speeding drivers. Expect an announcement any day now.
TPD also wants to put up cameras at four more intersections to nab
people who run red lights, but that project has yet to get a green
light from the Tucson City Council.
Find early and late-breaking Skinny at The Range, our daily
dispatch.
This article appears in Oct 8-14, 2009.
