Fierce Competition
National handicappers see McSally in peril, but she is still outraising all comers
It’s been quite a week in the Trump White House.
President Donald J. Trump started to blow up the nuclear deal that the Obama administration struck with Iran, blew up the healthcare exchanges where middle-class Americans can buy health insurance and threatened to blow up NAFTA.
So where does this latest round of D.C. news leave Congresswoman Martha McSally, a Republican seeking reelection in one of the most competitive seats in the country?
The Cook Political Report moved the CD2 race into the Toss Up category. Cook handicapper David Wasserman said that McSally had built a solid image as a fighter for the A-10 Warthog and a moderate Republican, but “her vote for the House healthcare repeal bill may endanger her independent reputation and put her back in jeopardy.”
Wasserman called Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick the frontrunner in the Democratic primary and said she was “running as an unabashed progressive defender of the ACA.” But he noted that four other Democrats, including former state lawmakers Matt Heinz and Bruce Wheeler, former Assistant Army Secretary Mary Matiella and Hotel Congress manager Billy Kovacs are aiming to upset Kirkpatrick.
Wasserman called CD2 a “must-win race” if Democrats hope to take back the House. McSally herself described it the same way when talking with a group of bankers earlier this year, saying that CD2 was a pivotal race in the power struggle over control of the House and warning the bankers that if the election were held today, she would not prevail.
While that admission could have been just a calculated feint to persuade the bankers to open their checkbooks, the latest Public Policy Polling survey does show McSally’s agenda is sometimes at odds with her district. The survey of 714 CD2 voters from Oct. 6 to Oct. 8 via robocall showed that in these polarized times, her voters are largely polarized, too, with 45 percent approving of her job performance and 47 disapproving. That puts her ahead of Trump, who has a 54 percent disapproval rating and a 42 percent approval rating. House Speaker Paul Ryan is even more unpopular, with two-thirds of the voters disapproving of his job performance and a 23 percent approval rating.
The poll showed that in a hypothetical matchup, McSally and Kirkpatrick were starting out tied, with 44 percent of those polled supporting the Republican incumbent and 44 percent supporting the Democratic challenger.
And McSally is already taking votes on another topic that’s polling badly in her district: the GOP budget and tax plan. Having bungled healthcare reform, the tax plan is the last big chance for Republicans to say they’re getting something done while in control of Washington. But the tax-cut plan is opposed by just over half the voters in the district and supported by just 32 percent. And when it comes to details, those numbers jump: 70 percent oppose tax cuts for the wealthy, while 64 percent oppose increasing the deficit. If those numbers are anywhere near accurate, it’s more bad news for McSally, given that the plan’s main feature is a gigantic deficit-funded tax break for America’s wealthiest citizens. (We should note that Team McSally has previously knocked Public Policy Polling surveys as the firm tends to be hired by left-leaning candidates and organizations and got some key races wrong in 2016.)
McSally continues to build an impressive campaign warchest. The most recent FEC reports, covering activity through Sept. 30, show she has raised $2.7 million for her campaign and still had more than $1.4 million in the bank.
On the Democratic side, Kirkpatrick had the most in the bank at the end of September. She had raised $350,000 and still had $269,000 on hand.
Heinz came in second, having raised roughly $262,000. He had $200,000 left in the bank.
First-time candidate Matiella, who has won the endorsement of Congressman Raul Grijalva, had raised just over $93,000 and still had roughly $57,000 in the bank.
Kovacs, another first time candidate, has raised just over $20,000, including $7,500 of his own money. He ended the quarter with about $5,500.
Wheeler, a former state lawmaker and Tucson City Council candidate, was bringing up the rear with with a fundraising total of roughly $7,300, including $1,000 of his own money. He had about $2,000 left in the bank.
If you want to see what the CD2 Democrats are made of, Represent Me AZ is hosting a forum with all five of them at 6:30 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 26, at Rincon High School, 421 N. Arcadia Ave. Doors open at 6 p.m. Skinny scribe Jim Nintzel will be your moderator.
The televised edition of Zona Politics with Jim Nintzel airs 6:30 p.m. Fridays on the Creative Tucson network, Cox Channel 20 and Comcast Channel 74. This week’s guests are Strong Start Tucson campaign chair Penelope Jacks and Ward 3 Tucson City Council candidate Gary Watson. The TV show repeats Sunday mornings at 9 a.m. The radio edition of Zona Politics airs at 5 p.m. Sundays on community radio KXCI, 91.3 FM.
This article appears in Oct 19-25, 2017.
McSally a “moderate Republican?” That’s a joke. She’s voted in lock step with POTUS-T 93% of the time. Her prior stand on health care & now on Trump’s tax plan prove she’s no moderate.
McSally is nothing more than a Repubtard Trumpuppet who would support an ax wielding psychotic killer as long as that cretin kept the Repubicunt dogma to suppress the poor, Black, and brown voters, eleminate or cripple universal health care, and eventually push Social Security to control by the states where it could be dismantled leaving the elderly penniless, starving, and broken in their supposed “Golden Years”. If McSally and the Republicans maintain control of every part of the government I demand that they pass a bill for assisted suicide so that we, who have hearts and souls and want to see our fellow man succeed , have an option not to continue in this farcical government of the people, by the people, and for the people.
McSally’s main vulnerability is that she is an open borders Republican. Otherwise, Ann is a good campaigner but will be considered an outsider. As for the rest, none of the liberals above have much of a chance in that district with the same old “free stuff” campaign.
Political races are so much easier now.
Used to, we had to pay attention to the candidates and the party platforms and a myriad of other factors in making our decisions.
Now, it is all boiled down to who can raise the most money, which is appropriate since nothing — absolutely nothing — matters anymore, not the candidates, not the issues, not ethics, not the future, just the money.
Too bad there is not the same level of outrage over what our so-called representative government has become as there is about the latest news out of Hollywood; After all, they both concern someone with wealth and power f-ing over anyone they want with impunity.
McSally or Kirkpatrick? Would you like a shit sandwich or a shit sandwich with extra mayo? Decisions…
Dearest Commenters, this is what redistricting does. We need two representatives for two different sets of voters (rural and urban), not one split in half. It’s time to be fair to voters, instead of to the parties responsible for this.
In all truthfulness if you searched your heart of hearts can you actually say that the Republicans in congress have ever done anything for “the people”. On the other had the Democrats (LIBERALS) (Progressives)fought to stop child labor, helped to establish the hours of the work day and the work week, demanded a minimum wage, started Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid as well as many more benefits to the population of this country. Everything I have mentioned has become targets for the Republicans to try to eliminate when they are elected to public office. Republicans run on a ticket of hate , destroy, and fake promises that never materialize. They are too insensitive to the needs of the citizen, too cheap to help the common man , and too intent on being re-elected to do anything constructive. The current administration in Washington is the epitome of the best that the Republicans will ever offer. Once they have dismantled our Affordable Health Care Act, weakened Medicare and Medicaid to the point of collapse, given their revered 2% of the population the MILLIONS and BILLIONS that they rightfully deserve, then you will see them go after Social Security. They chose their leader well because he is as similar to Satan as you will ever find in another human here on earth and his compassion for other beings other than his progeny could be measured with a nano-meter. For all of you dim-witted nit-wits who continue to vote for the Republican scourge you can thank yourself when the minimum wage is what you will work for, health care is whatever you can afford to pay , retirement is when you fall over dead at your work station regardless of your age, and “the pursuit of happiness” has been removed from the Constitution.
Excellent, Marty. See what happens when you hit the Left with facts. They dislike it because they can’t argue with you.
Oh, anybody could argue with that bs, but why bother? That stuff comes across as you do. Stupid.
If you could argue with it you’d be all over it. All you know how to do is call people who don’t agree with you moronic names. How sad.
I would like to thank the 5 idiots who hit dislike for proving my point.
You didn’t prove any points. All you proved is that you still and always will come across as being stupid. How sad.