The Latas Paradox

After Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords dispatched former state Sen.
Tim Bee by 12 percentage points last year, there weren’t many A-list
Republican candidates ready to challenge her in 2010.

Instead, four Republicans that few people have even heard of are
sniffing around the race: Jesse Kelly, Brian Miller, Andy Goss and Tom
Carlson.

Of the four, Kelly is off to the strongest start, raising about
$150,000 as of the end of the last reporting period. That’s a
respectable haul for someone with no political experience, but it comes
nowhere near the $1.3 million that Giffords has on hand already for the
race.

Kelly, who spent four years in the Marine Corps before moving to
Arizona to work for his family’s construction business, says he got
into the race because he was unhappy with the Obama administration and
the Democratic Congress.

“I love my country, and I don’t like the direction it’s going in,”
says Kelly, who registered as a Republican earlier this year after not
having a party preference.

“When I got out of the Marine Corps in August 2004, I was none too
pleased with the Republican Party and how they were growing government
(and) violating the Constitution … so I just registered as ‘party not
declared’ when I got down here,” he says.

Kelly complains that the federal government “has grown too bloated”
and needs to be cut back.

He’d start by chopping regulatory budgets by 20 percent and finish
by eventually privatizing Social Security—people would have
options to invest retirement accounts in the stock market—and
eliminating Medicare as part of a health-care reform that wouldn’t
involve a government program. Instead, people would get tax breaks to
buy their own insurance rather than getting it through their jobs.

“When individuals can start owning their own insurance, then they’re
in less need of Medicare in the future, thus getting off the public
dole and staying on their own individual insurance,” says Kelly.

He adds that the changes would have to take place over time. “To say
you’re going to do that instantly would be disingenuous and not
realistic and not fair to the people who have earned it,” he says.

Kelly has yet to take a stand on one of the more contentious issues
in the district: The fight over whether Augusta Resource Corporation
should be allowed to use federal land for a copper mine in the Santa
Rita Mountains. He says he doesn’t understand why the federal
government even needs to be involved in the issue, although the mine
has asked for permission to use federal land as a dumping ground. If
Kelly had his way, the federal government wouldn’t even own that
land.

Kelly says the one area of the budget that needs more money is the
military, because the U.S. needs to put more troops in Afghanistan.

“We’d better win that war,” he says. “We can’t fight it
halfway.”

But Kelly faces a new obstacle on the road to a campaign against
Giffords: The possibility that state Sen. Jonathan Paton may get into
the race.

Paton says he’s being courted by many within the Republican Party,
because Giffords appears more vulnerable after the 2009 election cycle,
which saw GOP gubernatorial victories in New Jersey and Virginia, as
well as the toppling of Democrat Nina Trasoff in the Democrat-dominated
city of Tucson.

“I’ve been talking to a lot of people in the district and asking
what they think,” Paton says. “They’ve been very encouraging, but
Gabrielle Giffords is a political animal and a great fundraiser. I know
that Nancy Pelosi will come out really strong for her. Obviously, we’re
taking that into account as well.”

In any case, Kelly says he’s prepared to take on Paton in a
primary.

“I am the one who can and will beat Gabrielle Giffords,” Kelly says.
“If the senator wants to get in this race, by all means, the water’s
warm. Jump right in. I hope he’s ready for battle.”

But Kelly may become the victim of something you might call the
Latas Paradox: As the unknown challenger’s chances of knocking out a
member of Congress increase, his chances of winning a primary
decrease.

It’s named for Democrat Jeff Latas, an Air Force veteran who
launched a long-shot campaign against then-Congressman Jim Kolbe in
2005. Latas was hailed by Democrats as the guy who was finally going to
unseat Kolbe, a Republican.

But after Kolbe announced he was going to retire, a half-dozen
Democrats wound up in the race. On Election Day, Giffords walked away
with 54 percent of the vote. Latas came in a distant third, with just 6
percent.

Margaret Kenski, a Republican pollster who has done extensive
surveys in CD8 over the last two decades, says that Paton has clear
advantages over Kelly.

Kenski points out that Kelly’s main claim to fame is his military
service, which Paton can match, because he spent a half-year in Iraq
and is still serving in the Army Reserve. (Paton was at Camp Slayer
when he won re-election to his state House seat in 2006.) Paton also
has the advantage of legislative experience and an extensive
fundraising base—which is key to remaining competitive in a
seven-figure race.

“He’s a broader-spectrum candidate in terms of background,” Kenski
says.

Kenski says that Giffords may well be vulnerable, because she has
voted for the stimulus package, health-care reform and cap-and-trade
legislation.

“I don’t think her issue positions line up real well with the mood
of district voters at the present,” Kenski says.

But she warns that the incumbent still will be hard to take out.

“She’s got a lot of money in the bank, and she’s a personable
candidate,” Kenski says.

This article appears in Dec 3-9, 2009.