PHOENIX – A prominent health expert expressed worry Wednesday about rising COVID-19 numbers across Arizona, saying the trend is reminiscent of early summer conditions that preceded a spike in cases and rollback of measures to reopen businesses.
“This is a moment to sort of stop and take measure and think hard about: What can we do to prevent this?” said Joshua LaBaer, executive director of Arizona State University’s Biodesign Institute, which is tracking case trends across Arizona’s 15 counties, as well as in the state overall and the nation.
LaBaer said 902 new cases were reported Wednesday morning by the Arizona Department of Health Services, and “we haven’t seen that in a while.” One week ago, that daily number of new cases was 786.
Cases are rising in Maricopa, Yuma, Navajo and Coconino counties, among others, he said.
“In terms of numbers of new cases, we are on a path headed toward exponential growth,” LaBaer said. “The tricky thing about exponential growth is that it doesn’t look like it’s growing very fast at first. The numbers day over day don’t look like they’re big changes. But then all of a sudden, it really can take off. And so I am concerned.”
On May 29, the state reported 909 new cases. One month later, on June 29, the daily number peaked at 5,461.
When cases first began popping up across Arizona in March, Gov. Doug Ducey and county and municipal leaders implemented policies to help prevent spread. The closure of nonessential businesses, along with mask mandates, were credited with slowing the disease in the community.
But as cases started to decline, restrictions eased, too.
For example, schools across the state have been reopening, and in Maricopa County alone, 21 have reported COVID-19 outbreaks since August, according to county statistics.
And as of Oct. 1, no county in the state remained in the “substantial” transmission category, meaning restaurants, movie theaters, gyms and other businesses could begin reopening.
“The choices Arizonans have made in the interest of public health have gotten us to this milestone,” Dr. Cara Christ, director of the state health department, said at the time.
But there must be a balance between public policy and personal responsibility, LaBaer said, urging anyone in a public-facing job or who interacts with new people to get tested on a regular basis.
“We’re still not testing enough,” he said. “People are just not showing up.”
LaBaer noted that things might only get worse with Halloween weeks away, followed by Thanksgiving and the December holidays of Christmas, Hanukkah and Kwanzaa.
He advises parents to proceed with caution if they plan to allow their children to trick or treat. He recommends wearing masks that cover nose and mouth, avoiding big groups of people and wiping off candy wrappers before the kiddos dig in.
Traditional trick-or-treating and indoor parties have been designated as high-risk activities by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
LaBaer said upcoming holiday parties should be kept small and restricted to immediate family, noting that larger gatherings have been found to be COVID-19 “super-spreaders.”
If events can’t be kept small, he recommends mask-wearing, social distancing and testing before the event to ensure safety.
“We have to really be thoughtful about gatherings of people,” LaBaer said. “It’s just not good right now to bring a lot of people together, and if people are coming together, they really need to be wearing masks and maintaining distancing.”
This article appears in Oct 15-21, 2020.
This is why I won’t live where they have an hoa. Thecity of phoenix yard nazi’s are bad enough.
Don’t look now — the signs are everywhere here in America and around the world — governments are about to throw in the towel on combating COVID-19. Few did what was necessary, some made courageous efforts, some made half-ass attempts and others made no effort at all. Trying to get people to comply with the simple steps to mitigate the spread of this highly contagious disease has been akin to trying to get children to eat their vegetables and go to bed on time — only those things don’t kill you!
Unfortunately, unless a vaccine is found quickly and distributed to every corner of the world, many governments are just through with trying to dictate, encourage and beg for compliance to the measures that most scientists agree can slow the spread of this disease.
The topic of herd immunity is making the rounds again, even after most of the credible experts have pointed out that COVID-19 “doesn’t do” herd immunity. In fact, based on the morbidity rate of COVID-19, the number of deaths that would occur trying to reach the alleged point of herd immunity would be more catastrophic than what we have already seen.
This is the real scary part, because when you look at all the problems and issues we have around the word today, the conspiratorial whispers by some government leaders about just letting COVID-19 go unchecked would be like another world war without all the expense of the weapons of war and the destruction of infrastructure, or what is known in some authoritarian-leaning parts of the world — including us right now — as a win-win.
In a way it is poetic — humans couldn’t be bothered to cherish, protect and care for the environment and now, thanks to human nature, nature is protecting the world from us.
The dinosaurs had a good run until an errant asteroid took them out. Humans had a short run until their own arrogance and laziness took them out.
Well then thank God we won’t have to worry about Global Warming any longer. You guys hit a home run with this one.
Per the new Medicare questionnaire you are fatally depressing and can not own a firearm. Sorry.
Will dinosaurs come back in 2025?
Sometime between now and 2025. During a panel published five years as of June 9, 2020, the scientist who Jurassic Park’s Dr. Alan Grant is inspired by revealed an expectation technology to be capable of bringing dinosaurs back into existence sometime between today and five years from right now.Jun 16, 2020
Covid-19 deaths per one million population:
1 New Jersey: 1,839
2 New York: 1,720
3 Massachusetts: 1,408
4 Connecticut: 1,274
5 Louisiana: 1,232
6 Rhode Island: 1,087
In the last seven days, Arizona Covid-19 deaths have averaged 8 per day. Normally 60,000 people would be expected to die in Arizona this year. At 8 per day, that’s an extra 3000.
Until we get an unlimited supply of N95 masks on retail, that’s a new normal.
This increase is just going to produce a swell, not a spike. Everyone is socially distancing.
Deaths won’t spike, nursing homes and other congregate care centers are on alert, requiring masks.
People may be forgetting that crisis care is still in effect. IF hospitals get maxed out like they did in the summer and this practice is retriggered, anyone can be denied life saving treatment regardless of illness or injury if their age and health makes their survival a lower probability than that of another patient. These nightmare scenarios can be avoided by both individuals and state authorities if they accept their responsibility in their own role. Now is the time for both to step up to the plate, since by the time you know you have a problem with COVID it’s too late and we’re approaching that point. A message needs sent to the governor that a repeat of his fiddling while Rome burns act in the late spring will not be acceptable.
Thank God only NJ followed NY’s Governor Cuomo as he killed the elderly with his proposal to force positive patients into elder care nursing homes. Doesn’t that boy understand science?
33,000 dead and now he writes a book to brag about it???
https://nypost.com/2020/10/18/andrew-cuomos-shameful-new-book-continues-lies-about-senior-cide/