In this morning’s Star, Rhonda explores the anti-incumbency mood that helped Republican Steve Kozachik to his apparent victory over incumbent Democrat Nina Trasoff and has helped Republican Ben Buehler-Garcia stay in the race against Democrat Karin Uhlich as the lingering votes are tallied in the next couple of days.
We touched on that theme in the days leading up to the election here on The Range.
But what does the trend hold for the future? Well, in the last couple of days, Espresso Pundit Greg Patterson thinks it means that state Sen. Jonathan Paton should abandon plans to run for the Senate and instead go after Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords:
So Paton has an awkward choice. Jump now, leave a successful career in order to capitalize on widespread voter angst, or spend an additional two years in preparation. My Tim Bee analogy was a good one, but Paton is a military man and CD 8 is a military district, so I’ll put it in terms that he and his supporters might prefer—Grant or McClellan. McClellan was the General’s General, perfect in every way except one. He wouldn’t fight. Grant was opposite, never waiting for the perfect time, fighting at every opportunity. Grant’s on the $50 and McClellan is a Jeopardy question.
If Congress is Paton’s goal. Now is Paton’s time.
A friend of Paton, Patterson has posted a slick TV commercial that Paton has cut for his Senate run and suggests that with a bit of editing, it wouid be ideal for a congressional run. We’d have to agree.
Given the general lack of enthusiasm for the current crop of GOP challengers among Republican power brokers, we expect that Patterson isn’t the only one urging Paton into the race against Giffords.
Paton obviously harbors congressional ambitions; his big calculation now is whether it makes more sense to try to knock out Giffords in the current anti-incumbent atmosphere or to wait until district lines are redrawn to create new, possibly more GOP-friendly district in 2012.
This article appears in Nov 5-11, 2009.
Wouldn’t this ruin everything for Bruce Ash?
It’s too late. After 7 months of working hard for the nomination, Jesse Kelly is not going to just roll over and get out. Sure, maybe Paton would win the nomination but it would be after a tough fight for the base.
Paton would make a great nominee for the GOP but he has waited about 5 months too long. If he waits until January, even worse. Kelly will have that much more money.
How about Giffords v. Kyl?
And, D-Retired Gen. John Adams v. R-Paton/Kelly/whoever for Giffords seat?
Jesse Kelly is a dork. He would get walloped and everyone knows it. Paton is a conservative douchebag but he would crush Jesse and possibly Gabby too. The nutjobs won’t be able to pull a Hoffman on Paton because he’s too rightwinged out.
Hard to argue with Patterson’s analysis. Congressional incumbents become harder and harder to dislodge over time, and Giffords being a good politician should become less and less vulnerable. Counting on the 2012 re-districting is a long shot. By then Obama will have averted the Second Great Depression, reformed healthcare, and ended two wars. The Democrats will be hot. Personally I don’t care for people who campaign for legislative office in uniform (Art 1, Sec 6.2) so the commercial doesn’t do much for me, and other than the vote to support Joe Wilson, I think Gabby is OK. Jesse Kelly wouldn’t even be a contest.
Jeff: Giffords vs. Kyl and an open congressional seat for Paton/Whoever vs. Adams/Whoever is a scenario I’m also hearing about, but that’s a 2012 race. The question of the day revolves around 2010.
And what about Janet coming back to AZ to take on Kyl in 2012, setting up Giffords vs. Janet? That’s a tasty fix for political junkies! Janet has the negatives from deserting Democrats when they needed her at the Legislature, while Gabby still needs to boost that statewide ID.
Yeah, I think at this time Paton would be the only true contender. I think Giffords has supported more of a liberal agenda than some in AZ-8 would be comfortable with. In the end it’ll be much more competitive than I’d have forecast after her blowout of Tim Bee.