A CNN/ORC International poll is the latest survey to show a bounce for Obama in the wake of last week’s Democratic National Convention:

A new survey indicates President Barack Obama moved up four points following the Democratic National Convention last week, and now has a six point advantage over his Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

According to a CNN/ORC International Poll released Monday, 52% of likely voters nationwide back the president, compared to 46% for Romney. Just before the convention in Charlotte, North Carolina, Obama was tied with Romney 48%-48%.

Nate Silver sorts through the numbers, notes that Romney has not held a substantive lead in any of the polling, and concludes:

That makes this an extremely odd election. You would figure that at some point over the past year, Mr. Romney would have pulled into the lead in the polls, given how close it has usually been. John McCain held occasional leads in 2008; John Kerry led for much of the summer in 2004; and Michael Dukakis had moments where he was well ahead of George H.W. Bush in the spring and summer of 1988. But Mr. Romney, if there have been moments when his polls were ever-so-slightly stronger or weaker, has never really had his moment in the sun.

Instead, the cases where one candidate led essentially from wire to wire have been associated with landslides: Bill Clinton in 1996, Ronald Reagan in 1984, Richard Nixon in 1972 and Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956.

There is almost no chance that Mr. Obama will win by those sort of margins. But this nevertheless seems like an inauspicious sign for Mr. Romney. If even at his high-water mark, he can only pull the race into a rough tie, what pitch can he come up with in October or November to suddenly put him over the top?

Andrew Sullivan offers his thoughts on the state of the presidential race here. Jonathan Chait notes that the Romney campaigns appears to narrowing its targeted states here.

This article appears in Sep 6-12, 2012.

Getting hassled by The Man Mild-mannered reporter

8 replies on “Obama’s Bounce: Leading Romney by 6 Points in New CNN Poll”

  4. The best polling data, in my opinion, is that by Nate Silver at the New York Times (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ ). His polling blog accumulates various polls and applies his model, which has had a good track record.

    Obama will will a second term, or lose, based almost completely on the electoral college results from a small number of states that are considered in play by both the campaigns. That’s where Obama and Romney will be found actually campaigning in the next eight weeks (Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire).

    Arizona isn’t going to see a visit by either Obama or Romney.

  5. When you give a bunch of folks who can only turn left a job to ask who people are voting for, they only find those to their left. does anyone remember the poll numbers BEFORE 2010? Do you remember what the voters told our President then? Of course not just like the Democrats ignored the voters at their convention that clearly wanted God removed form their platform, they have ignored the message sent by the voters in 2010 and send the same pollsters out to “get a feel” for what “We the People” are saying. lol

    What happens in the voting booth stays in the voting booth!

  6. The poll you are quoting over sampled Democrats and under sampled Independents by a measurable degree. You know it. This is a pro Obama “puff piece”.

  8. Black man or a mormon? I choose black man. Unfortunately that is what will really decide who people vote for.

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