The New York Times/CBS News/YouGov poll released this week has bad news for Democrat Fred DuVal: Republican Doug Ducey has a 9 percentange point lead, according the survey taken Oct. 16-Oct. 23.
The breakdown in the poll is fascinating: Ducey is getting 56 percent of men, while DuVal is getting just 36 percent. Women are breaking pretty evenly, with 44 percent going with DuVal and 43 percent going with Ducey.
And check out the generation gap: DuVal gets 54 percent of voters 18 to 29 years old, while Ducey gets just 33 percent. And DuVal gets 53 percent of voters aged 30 to 44, while Ducey gets 37 percent. But as the electorate skews older, Ducey finds a lot more support: Among voters 6-plus, Ducey lands the support of 61 percent, while DuVal gets just 32 percent.
There’s a race factor at work, too: Ducey gets the support of 53 percent of the white voters, while DuVal gets the support of just 37 percent. DuVal has a lead among Hispanic voters, but not by as big a margin: Duval has the support of 48 percent, while Ducey has the support of 42 percent. That’s remarkably close, given that Ducey has indicated that he’d continue anti-Latino policies such as denying driver’s licenses to DREAMers while DuVal has said he’d have a DREAMer lead the pledge of allegiance at his inaugural.
A poll is, as always, just a snapshot in time and other surveys have shown a closer race. But unless Democrats can get out younger and non-white voters, Republicans will probably have a good statewide showing on Tuesday.
This article appears in Oct 30 – Nov 5, 2014.
“….he’d continue anti-Latino policies such as denying driver’s licenses to DREAMers….”
DREAMers come from a diverse racial and ethnic background. Being anti-immigrant is not the same as being anti-Latino. Is there any actual evidence that Ducey is anti-Latino? Or is he just anti-immigration?
Hopefully he will be a good Republican and focus on keeping government accountable, efficient, limited and out of our business!
And seriously if the media and the parties keep focusing on dividing our Country into these groups I am going to well…..be an independent!
Read ’em and weep, Jim.
I attended the Ducey rally in NW Tucson yesterday. There were no more than 40 people there to see the candidates, and almost everyone was above the age of 60. If the GOTV effort is positive, especially in Maricopa County, I think the polls will be proven wrong. Arizonans are sick and tired of RWNJ politicians stalling AZ progress.
And let me add, hold on to your uterus, if Doug Ducey is elected. Cathi Herrod will be snooping around in your lady parts, looking for fertilized eggs.
If you don’t want them, give them to her.
Voters have seen through the hype and the bs by the left. It’s time to govern!
Yo’ PMujer, keep hittn’ that bong woman! Your hopes are about to go down the drain with your liberal candidate Duval.
Begin to govern, Rat T? Haven’t the nuttypubs been in charge for quite a while?
Kt, No the “pubs” have not been in charge for awhile. Obama had the Senate and Hse. for 2 yrs. and accomplished nothing. Now it’s time for the Repubs to do something. They sure couldn’t do any worse than the current grp. of Demorats!
Thought we were talking about AZ politics. I always distrust polls.
Rick Jason: thought this story was about AZ, that is what I was talking about anyway. as for national politics, hard to get anything done when repubs waste so much time and effort on trivial votes to repeal Obamacare and other obstructionism. maybe they should TRY to work and compromise just a little, dog knows the pres has compromised on what the left wanted.
I supported DuVal proudly because he didn’t earn the endorsement of Satan’s secretary, the tart in charge of the Center for Arizona Policy. When this grandstanding wench is forever gone from Arizona politics, then our state will be truly open for business.
Sorry Edgy Harv but this state is only open FOR business in cities other than Tucson.
Satan’s secretary? Really Harv?