Over the weekend, the Rocky Mountain Poll released a survey showing Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney in Arizona, 44 percent to 42 percent:

The state’s two most populous counties, Maricopa and Pima, came out in support of Obama, while Romney has a lead in the rural counties. Men are evenly split between the two candidates, and the difference between the candidates among women is only three points.

Obama is the heavy favorite among the state’s Latinos, who split for him 77% to Romney’s 10%.

This doesn’t sound even remotely plausible to The Range. Nate Silver crunches the numbers and is also skeptical:

The survey has a couple of things in its favor. The poll comes from a firm, the Behavior Research Center, that has had good results in the past. And almost all of its interviews postdated the Denver debate.

But I would not be too worried about the topline numbers if I were Mr. Romney’s campaign — or too enthralled with them if I were Mr. Obama’s. The survey contacted relatively few respondents — about 500 voters — and even a good polling firm can and will produce an outlying result or two with a sample size like that.

It is plausible that Mr. Obama could win Arizona if he is running strongly nationwide — but it is much less likely that he will do so in the current national environment, where the race is almost tied.

We’re not even sure that you can say that Behavior Research Center has had good results in the past. Having watched the outfit for years, we find it to be hit and miss, at best.

But Silver raises an interesting point regarding Hispanic voters:

On Saturday, I ran an alternate version of the FiveThirtyEight simulation in which I assumed that Mr. Obama would in fact win Hispanic voters by 50 percentage points, his edge in the Latino Decisions poll, as opposed to the roughly 35-point margin he’s had on average in polls that were conducted in English only.

I scaled this adjustment based on the share of Hispanic voters in 2008 exit polls. So, for example, Mr. Obama gained a net of 3 points in Texas because of the adjustment, but almost nothing in Kentucky.

Even with this adjustment, Mr. Obama was far from being favored in Arizona. Instead, the model gave him just an 8 percent chance of winning there, although this was better than the 4 percent chance from the standard FiveThirtyEight model.

However, the adjustment increased Mr. Obama’s win probability in Colorado to 57 percent from 44 percent, in Florida to 53 percent from 35 percent, and in Nevada to 77 percent from 62 percent. It even helped him slightly in Virginia, where about 5 percent of voters identified as Hispanic in 2008 exit polls.

He concludes:

Still it’s the possibility that the polls are underestimating Mr. Obama’s performance among Hispanics that should be the concern for Mr. Romney in the Arizona poll — not the unlikely possibility that Arizona has suddenly become a swing state.

This article appears in Oct 11-17, 2012.

Getting hassled by The Man Mild-mannered reporter

6 replies on “Is AZ in Play in Presidential Race? Probably Not”

  2. Once again, the next US presidential election will be fixed. Mitt Romney will be elected even though Barack Obama would have received more votes in the 2012 election. The political assassination will be perpetrated by Bush hiding behind Crossroads GPS, the most influential group of Neocons.

    The Neocons will have Mitt Romney elected to first use him and then let him fall easy prey. All blames and responsibilities will fall on the new Mormon president for the events already planned.

    The new World War of Religion is already a done deal behind the backs of all people which will be forced to fight for their own Countries in their obligation as citizens

    ……………

    Since 9/11 it’s the War on Terror
    One “false flag” attack so called by error
    Blair, Bush, and Israel had a Pact in store
    Their next surprise is knocking at your door
    A hidden vile Idea from those who want “more”
    will use you and your Belief for the next World War
    As “chosen people” gain while Humankind loses
    Greed wins not by the swords but by the words of Moses
    Daring is to tell you when, better then to tell you rhymes
    could not side with either one to get ready for our times
    to look beyond and past today to seek for a solution
    one only hope is there for you and spells Wavevolution

    ……………….

    A new type of Revolution wins with the ultimate weapon:
    Your Mind

    http://www.wavevolution.org/en/humanwaves.…

  4. I voted for Obama via mail. Just what has the Republicans done for Arizona or the people. NOTHING. They use the state to get elected, become a millionaire, like McCain and Kyl and others. They are not for the people. They are for big corporations and they are the puppets of corporations, filling their bank accounts.

  5. I think it will be closer than people think here. Democrats are energized by Carmona (did you see that debate!) and they are fed up with the legislature and will come out in droves for those down ballot races. If they do, Obama wil get the votes.

  6. Jim….my-back-yard-home poll indicates the Nov 6 pres race will
    be 70% Romney and 30% Obama…

    But the true poll will come out after Nov 6.

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