Super smart guy Nate Silver looked at the statistical likelihood of Obama’s re-election for this week’s New York Times magazine. There’s a reason the Democratic National Committee has started with the ads attacking Romney already:

We begin with the worst of these situations for Obama: Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee, and economic growth, rather than continuing along sluggishly, comes to a halt (perhaps the debt dominoes have fallen in Europe). Under these assumptions, Obama would only have a 17 percent chance — about one in six — of winning a majority of the popular vote.

His chances are slim enough in this case that if I woke up next November to discover that we would have four more years of Obama, I might ask whether there was some sort of October surprise: “Mitt in Torrid Affair With Filipina Housekeeper.” Subhead: “Illegal Immigrant Got Free Romneycare.” Then I might ask if Sarah Palin had run on the Tea Party ballot line and taken 6 percent of the vote.

The editor of the Tucson Weekly. I have no idea how I got here.

13 replies on “Does Obama Stand a Chance in 2012?”

  1. Only if Hell freezes over and white americans remain in a state of suspended animation can this socialist, communist, closet mooslim, imposter, win reelection.

  2. I wouldn’t assume he can’t win in 2012. He will most assuridly place Hillary Clinton as his VP; thereby, checking the last box. Gay/lesbian in Homeland Security and Supreme Court (also Latino box checked), black man as head of DOJ, white female as VP and countless speeches to La Raza telling them to “punish their enemies” (a.k.a whitey). Follow that up with scaring the old folks that the conservatives are going to take away their healthcare. Isn’t this the same guy that wanted to limit the amount of healthcare that the elderly received when he first came into office? [rhetorical question]. Anyway, don’t count this George Soros sponsored dictator out yet. He has the money to spend.

  3. I won’t be voting for him again, but not because he’s a socialist.. because he isn’t. Nor is he a communist (really, people need to pop open a dictionary before they attempt to sling insults). Nor is he a muslim (not that it should matter?). Imposter how?

    Lame.

    I’m done with the two party system. I figure if my only two options (aside from just not voting) are to throw my vote away on a DemoPublican’t or throw my vote away on an Independent, I’ll throw my vote to an independent. It’s a political statement only slightly more powerful than simply staying home, but at least it’s better than kidding ourselves that anything good can come from either party anymore.

  4. If Obama is to be defeated, there has to be a viable alternative. The question is, who is there to vote for that you believe will work for the best interests of the country, i.e., people like you and your children, will be effective in leading us back to economic prosperity, and will preserve the battered and bloody U. S. Constitution? Names, please.

  5. Wow, what an ignorant load of racist crap in those first two comments. Makes one sad that more money wasn’t spent on education for their community.

    However, I’m with the commenter who declared done with the two party BS.

  6. As a confirmed racist, that is one who holds a KKK membership in two different States, I finally came to peace with Herman Cain as the potential new President of the USA. I thought that it was about time that a Free Negro, that is one who was not an affirmative action devotee rose up and broke the chains that almost every Black man and woman seems to revel in, and made something of his or her life. Cain fit the bill, except for the fact that the Democrats fearful that there are Free Black People around, decided to ruin Cain’s candidacy with phony accusations of potential rape.

  7. Have you witnessed the morons up for the Republican nod? I would hope so

  8. I’m starting to think that instead of just letting anybody run for president that meets age and citizenship requirements, that we should test them first. By that I mean shouldn’t we only allow the best and the brightest into the door of Presidency? Most of us would need restraining orders if ex-President George W. Bush Jr. lived next door. So, I say its time we make sure that our presidents are competent enought to make good decisions. As well as decisions that do more good than harm. We should all be playing on the same team afterall or we truely are a divided nation and not united.

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