The day before the election, a friend of mine who owes me a sum of money for services rendered emailed me and asked if I wanted to go double or nothing on the presidential-election results.

I was sorely tempted to take the bet for a couple of reasons. One, never having had the money he owed me, it wasn’t as though I would actually be losing anything. And second, being a devotee of Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight blog with The New York Times, I had, at that moment, a 90.9 percent feeling that President Obama would win.

Alas, as a matter of personal policy, I never bet on anything other than myself. I’ll make a friendly wager on a tennis match, a game of chess or a free-throw contest, but I don’t bet on sports or elections. Being a rather compulsive person, I see that behavior as leading one down a one-way, dead-end street. (I have a friend who retired a millionaire. After the inevitable boredom of retirement set in, he took to day-trading by computer. He’s no longer a millionaire.) I also don’t gamble in Las Vegas, because the greedy bastards who run the place won’t let me use all of my brain.

When I told my friend that I wouldn’t take the bet, he snapped, “Why? Are you afraid your guy isn’t going to win?”

As mentioned, I was very confident that the president would be re-elected. I had been following Silver’s blog for months and was impressed with his method, the clever use of algorithms and his track record. (He had correctly called 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 election.) I even ordered his book and read it. He knows of which he writes.

The mere mention of Silver’s name causes a paroxysm among many people on the right. First, Bill Clinton lectures them about math, and now this guy? According to Silver, Mitt Romney’s chances of being elected were never better than around 1 in 4. As the days ticked down toward the election, Obama’s chances went from the high 70s to the 80s and finally into the 90s.

Silver may have been taken aback by the vitriolic nature of the attacks against him from bloggers and columnists on the right. But then he checked his figures again—and doubled down. Of course, the use of probability is an automatic admission that, under certain circumstances, the other thing could happen. It’s just that it’s not likely to.

Silver had indeed called 49 of 50 states correctly in 2008, but that election wasn’t nearly as close as the 2012 one would be. There were at least nine states, and maybe more, that could conceivably go either way. But Silver never flinched. After making a last-minute switch to put Florida into the Obama column, he finished a perfect 50-for-50. That’s godlike stuff.

On election night, I plopped in front of the TV, remote in hand, and set out a-chortling. By sheer luck, I was actually watching Fox News when Karl Rove tried unsuccessfully to use his mere presence to reverse the call of Ohio going to the president. It had to be the most uncomfortable moment on Fox since they kept the camera on Mitt Romney the entire time he sang that patriotic song.

The next morning, I had to take my wife to the airport for a business trip. After I dropped her off, I just drove around for a while, listening to the wailing and gnashing of teeth by the two local right-wing talk-show guys. I have to admit: I absolutely loved it.

Both .1 guys (that’s not their ratings or their IQs, but the last digit in their respective FM-radio frequencies) were wildly entertaining and informative. For example, I learned that my having voted for President Obama meant that I was unintelligent and uninformed, and that I had helped sign America’s death warrant. That’s good to know.

The rest of that day, I got to watch conservative know-it-alls try to explain what in the hell had happened. I got to see political skank Ann Coulter get all choked up when she talked about whether America had hit the tipping point. I don’t know about politics, but the tipping point for miniskirts and go-go boots was 1972.

This past week has been a mixed bag. Rush Limbaugh, who had sworn that all of the pre-election polls were skewed, said on his show that, as it turns out, the polls had been dead-on. Sean Hannity started nibbling around the edges of market-based immigration reform. And Speaker of the House John Boehner talked about tax increases without starting to cry. Hopeful signs, all.

There’s no time to gloat here, although some of the jackasses on the other side certainly deserve it. There’s a lot of work to be done, and it’s Grown Folks’ Work. I’m praying that the president and everybody else concerned are up to it.

After Obama won the presidency in 2008, the satirical publication The Onion ran this headline: “Black Man Given Worst Job in America.” This time, they’ll probably say that it’s even worser. But I’ll tell you what: From where I’m sitting, it’s infinitely better than the alternative.

This article appears in Nov 15-21, 2012.

22 replies on “Danehy”

  1. Good to know some of those RW talking heads are starting to explore legitimate issues, albeit only “nibbling at the edges.” But some of their audience are really going to have to get a hold of some Xanax pretty soon or their going to fall off of their rockers or off of something.

  2. And this:
    patriotmom says: November 10, 2012 at 8:21 pm Nobama based his campaign on micro-campaigns to targeted groups. Wonder what all the kids who voted for Nobama will think when the money for school dries up, he doesn’t cut their student loan debts in half, the Obamaphones stop ringing and, thanks to Obamacare, there’s fewer jobs? To top it off, he wants amnesty for illegals so todays college grads will have even MORE people to contend against for jobs. What fun! Oh, and I would LOVE to see the faces on the young gals who voted Nobama back into the White House when they, as single women, have free contraceptives and NO JOBS. Maybe Eva Longoria can get them jobs as extras in Hollywood? They may not be working, but at least they don’t have to worry about getting pregnant…or a retirement plan. Then there’s the blacks who called themselves Christians while voting for the Party of Death. Their families will remain fractured, their illegitimacy numbers high, their unemployed numbers higher and their faith a pathetic joke. Calling themselves Christians while voting for a man who condones infanticide is beyond this evangelical. The Hispanics may actually get something out of their slavish devotion to the Dems, but I think there is already a movement afoot to slap Boehners overly-tanned face and yell, “Snap out of it!”. Illegals are already making demands and we know how well THAT worked in the past. As for the Asians, I don’t get it. Many are professionals and well-educated and yet they supported Nobama. Again, can’t wait for the bellyaching to start when the taxes hit- and MANY of them will be in the $200K range so they will be considered “rich”. Their curry will be cooked before they even know it. The gays are the only group who seem to be getting everything they want. Evidently the 30 years of brainwashing our young paid off. Next up will be the advocates for polygamy and incest ( as long as they are consenting adults, who is hurt? Right? ) followed by the NorthAmericanManBoyLoveAssociation (NAMBLA) and the sheep lovers. They make Sodom and Gommorah look like the Amish. I’m ordering my “Don’t Blame Me- I Voted Romney-Ryan!” bumpersticker. At least while the country is going to rack and ruin we can get some entertainment value out of it. Pop the corn and pull up the TV!

  3. And this:
    Sgt. Flapjaw says: November 9, 2012 at 9:29 am Well I thought that just maybe all these progressives on here had dyed by rotting from within, guess not. Hispanics who are here illegally or on the dole, Catholics, youth, women who can’t have as much sex as they want because we won’t buy them rubbers, or provide abortions, kiddies who are affraid to loose Big Bird, Athiests who may see a religious symbol somewhere, teachers who care more about propagadization than education, LDS who care about filling the coffers than their god, Progressives who hate so much that they would ruin the country to feel good about themselves, On and on. All special interst groups, all political, all of the time. All of them looking for a free ride or power in some form or another.

  4. As a Independent voter, viewing this election as objective as possible, it appears some of the numbers just don’t add up. I speak of news reports of Ohio and PA numbers…if I didn’t know better I’d say something is very fishy about this election in regards to how the President Obama walked away with all the votes in numerous areas of Ohio, and Gov. Romney not getting but one vote in each area…it smells big time. What does your guy Silver have to say about that?
    As for the response to the election, I see far from good times for this Nation…more unemployment is just the beginning, but I’m sure the media will ignore those who are becoming unemployment as I speak.

  5. Good morning, Mr.Grayson. Thank you for your entertaining and passionate posts.

    But may I suggest reading the book of Matthew, Chapter 25?

    Maybe after a few moments of respectful reflection, you could come back to tell us whether Jesus would have voted Republican.

    Ever?

  6. Mr. Independent?

    Instead of listening to those wild and nutsy “news” reports about Ohio and Pennsylvania results, how about checking out the facts?

    Here’s a link. http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/…

    (You can click on the county map to see how erroneous those “news” reports are.)

    When I checked out my native Pennsylvania county, Clearfield, what I saw was the “more things change, the more they stay the same.” (Romney 64%; Obama 36%)

    Once again, an economically depressed county that is heavily dependent on Federal handouts voted overwhelmingly Republican, as did most of the rural counties in both PA and Ohio. (As they have for as long as I can remember.)

    Sorry, I’m puzzled why they always vote against their own interests, because if Romney/Ryan had been elected, my birth county (94% white) would lose Federal support which would drop its living standards to that of, say, Haiti’s.

    (By the way, getting on SS disability there has become almost as big a sport as following the Steelers.)

  7. I find it interesting the people will vote for their death sentence under the Tea Party and the Republicans. We just have to look at the Republican controlled states to see how the Republican would run our nation. And also just look at what Republicans for the past 2 years. They have done ZERO, just trying to defeat Obama, well that didn’t work. Voters are smarter than Republicans want them to be. That is why they are against education. The Tea Party to me is the American Taliban, out to destroy us.
    And then we have watch and listen to Sen. McCain from AZ, making AZ looking bad, guess he is competing with Senile Brewer.
    McCain, he protected C.Rice and Powell, when they give us and the UN wrong information on Iraq so Bush could start a new war. McCain was all about giving out misinformation. Now with Obama, he has spent his last 4 weeks blasting him. Throwing road blocks up, stopping the progress of the people and nation. Republicans don’t care about us or the nation. It is about POLITICS and doing nothing. voting NO, stalling bills.
    It is sad we have a Republican party that is all about destruction and not building up the nation.
    The election in 2014 should be a key election. Democrats must get out the votes and defeat House Republicans. But again, Republicans will spend billions on ads that are LIES and Mis information.

  8. For the next election of DA Barbara LA Wall, the voters must defeat her. Seeing her record of not prosecuting many accused criminal and she lets them go. Her record is really bad. It is time for a new DA in Tucson.

  9. Reading the posts of the wingnut above are exactly what the article illustrated: anger, delusion, rationalization of doom, hopelessly low independent thought, bottomless bitter bile. Unfortunately, this single screech has been blasted over radio and TV and comments’ sections for a long time. Grayson, you are now on record here as just another hateful creature spawned by the propaganda of your own choosing. Liberals/Progressives/Democrats are far from endangered, and no one is afraid of you. Get a grip.

  10. Sore losers and non-patriots, like the fools flying their flags upside down.

    The MAJORITY of the people of this nation have spoken, in both of the last two elections. Check on how many presidents in our recent history have done that? FDR comes to mind. (I think I heard it was four.) I don’t believe even your godly Reagan pulled that one off.

    It’s time to acknowledge that the fringe is in the minority. The people who think the county is going to go to hell (or worse) because Obama was re-elected have been voted down by the sane majority. Yes, even some white people like me. In fact, a whole bunch of lily white people in my town worked very hard to get out the vote for Obama despite the loss in AZ. But some of us made calls to other states!

    I’m a white, single woman over 50, in the midde class (barely), part of the 47% that Romney didn’t care about. I can’t believe that so many people are/were so naive that they vote against their best interest. Did those people really hate the president so much (why? When you ask them, they can’t justify their hatred with specifics) that they would vote for someone who would throw away Medicare and Social Security, take away every right a woman has, short of their right to vote…sending us back to the kitchen, barefoot and pregnant – or back to the secretarial pool?

    Wake up!!! You lost!! Support YOUR president. You don’t have to like him or agree with everything he does. I certainly don’t (like the continuation of the Bush national security programs – on steroids, which are eroding our personal rights), but everyone should respect the office.

  11. The similarities between the tea baggers and the 1860 Confederates are obvious: self-righteous, unwilling to compromise, unwilling to climb out of their bubble and see the world as it is, they threaten to secede if their candidate loses.

  12. What will be the Pledge of the seceding states?

    Maybe this: I pledge allegiance to the flag of ( ) and to the theocracy for which it stands, one nation under God with liberty for all.

    Had to take out “indivisible” and “justice”.

  13. As an Arizona Indpendent who did vote for Obama. Righ now I would like to see ALL the AZ votes counted in THIS election. I grew up in the 60’s in Texas, and quite frankly am tired of ‘old white men’ trying to tell us ‘how it is.’ I lived in the PNW for over 25 years, until moving down full time two years ago to the little condo I bought in 2005. This is a unique experience living in AZ, reminds me of my childhood. I absolutely love our country. I celebrated my son’s retirement from the Navy this past August, my brother, dad and grandpa all served, too. I have worked in non-profits (behavioral health) most of my career trying to make a difference in people’s lives. (I now have a private practice.) The Republicians like Ann Coulter need to get off their ‘high horse’ and start caring about someone besides themselves. The reason Obama won is partly because he has a heart and is compassionate. He has strugled like the rest of us, like Clinton, people can relate to them. We really are ALL in this together; we need to WORK together now.

  14. Remember back in 2000 when Republicans were gloating about their “win” over Gore/Lieberman? They displayed signs that said “Sore/Loserman.” Seems like those signs would be particularly appropriate today.

  15. Let me see if I’ve got this straight. Your wife went on a business trip ? A BUSINESS TRIP !!! Don’t tell me you married one of those horrible business people ?! You know who I mean. The one’s who don’t pay enough taxes. The one’s who have all that money while the poor struggle to eat. Who’d of thunk it ?

  16. “. Good morning, Mr.Grayson. Thank you for your entertaining and passionate posts.

    But may I suggest reading the book of Matthew, Chapter 25?

    Maybe after a few moments of respectful reflection, you could come back to tell us whether Jesus would have voted Republican.

    Ever?.”

    I am not now and have never been a Christian.

    But I do know that Jesus would not have voted Republican ever.

    He had no photo ID!

  18. First of all, Richard Grayson. I am hispanic, born in US to parents that immigrated legally. My children are legitimate, I was and still am married to their father. Where do you get off saying such racist, ignorant things as you did in your post? There are as many illegitimate hispanics as there are blacks, whites, and asians. As far as “infanticide” I feel it is better to bring wanted children into this world rather that just birth them and neglect them afterwards. Your post makes me so angry that I wish I could just see what kind of person you really are

  19. The sour grapes from the right is just what I expected. They are SO disappointed that the electorate is not the poor, uneducated, ignorant, uninvolved lot of sheep they are perceived to be by the Republican party and base. I predicted on this sight several weeks ago the voters would not go down the path to their slaughter again as they did in 2000 and am ever so grateful I was correct. Rock on Tom and Mr Grayson, go get yourself a blog where those of your own kind can enjoy your endless stream of vitriol. It’s not appreciated here!

  20. Sour grapes from the “losers” and gloating from the “winners” …. meanwhile the country is going down the drain while Politicians fiddle …. almost ALL politicians are liars as it is a job pre-requisite. Ahh politics …. I think Marx, if he were alive today would call it “the opiate of the masses”.
    Danehy – please join “no labels.org” – be constructive for once.

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