Republican Ruth McClung is picking up momentum, dollars and support in her unexpected surge against Congressman Raul Grijalva, but stats wiz Nate Silver remains skeptical of her chances.
Silver talks in general about the latest wave of GOP enthusiasm here. An excerpt:
Raúl M. Grijalva. Bennie Thompson. Jan Schakowsky.
Jim Oberstar? John Larson? Corrine Brown?
Peter DeFazio! John Dingell! Barney Frank!
These are some of the Democratic incumbents, most long believed to be safe by analysts. But in recent weeks, polls of their districts have suggested surprisingly competitive races.
Some of these polls show the Republican challengers leading; most show the Democrat ahead, but by a smaller margin than expected. Some of the polls are from independent researchers; most are issued by the campaigns themselves, or by other Republican-affiliated groups. Some of the companies conducting these polls have strong reputations; others have little track record.
What these polls have in common, however, is that each time one is issued, they make Republicans very excited — and Democrats very nervous. It’s time for a more sober look at them.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball has moved the CD7 race from “likely Democrat” to “leans Democrat”:
Raul Grijalva in AZ-7 is the trendiest dark horse GOP pick-up opportunity this week. Grijalva is a liberal Democrat, chairman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, who represents a district that went 57% for both Obama and Kerry during their respective presidential runs. How is he endangered? One word: boycott. Following the Arizona legislature’s adoption of a controversial immigration measure in April, Grijalva signed onto the call for a national boycott of Arizona. It was a popular move among liberals, but not among Arizonans, hampered as all states have been by the tough economic times. His Republican opponent, Ruth McClung, has garnered a Sarah Palin endorsement, sure to bring national attention but also a degree of skepticism from the district’s less conservative voters. If Democrats lose here, it will be a truly needless fumble.
Read the whole thing here.
This article appears in Oct 14-20, 2010.
I URGE all voters in this district to Vote For McClung. She needs your time and money to win this election which is in a statistical dead heat. Please go to http://www.mcclungmiracle.com/ and donate to her campaign tomorrow.
This district is the biggest hole in the entire Southern border. It is time to put someone in charge who is not interested in letting in as many illegal aliens and giving them as many taxpayer dollars as possible.
I urge all voters to support Congressman Grijalva and don’t be fooled by the lies and distortion which always accompany his opponents. (See comment previous to this one.) He is good for Arizona and good for the U.S. Of course if you believe that somebody who has never had the time for civic involvement but now wants to leap to a U.S Congressional seat and has stated that she wants to do away with Social Security, and would support corporate profits over working Americans including exporting jobs – well vote for the GOP parrot.
The blood is in the water. I’ve been seeing Raul popping up on national television sweating about this race. You have got to be the dumbest democrat evah to BOYCOTT your own district, what a fool. I swear to god, under a normal election cycle Grijalva could get caught pulling a nuke across the border on the back of a pack mule, with Bin Laden in tow injecting Raul with afghan heroin, and still win election. It looks hot on the ground and I think Ruth pulls it out.
Let’s see campaign to boycott the state of Arizona and ask them for their vote 3 months later . . .
That raises several questions
Do you think that went well?
Than why did you do it?
Does it have something to do with your childhood?
And whose fault is that?
Is district 7 missing the village idiot?