Republican challenger Martha McSally is now leading Democratic Congressman Ron Barber by just 179 votes in the tight race for Congressional District 2, following Pima County’s tabulation of a batch of provisional ballots.
Pima County Elections officials counted 15 early ballots and 4,889 provisional ballots, according to Pima County spokesman Mark B. Evans, who added that roughly 4,000 provisional ballots remained to be counted.
How many of those provisional ballots are in CD2 is unknown, but in today’s count, about 3,210 of ballots counted today were from CD2 and Barber picked up 162 votes.
County officials hope to finish the vote count tomorrow.
This article appears in Nov 6-12, 2014.
172! Guess that is no land slide and count is not finished, she might just possibly have counted her chickens before they hatched!
Well this is going to be interesting. 🙂
Of today’s ballots 65.86% were from CD2.
Barber won today’s provisionals with a split of 52.13% to 47.28%
So if we assume that the total valid provisional count was 9,355 and subtract the 4,889 counted today we come up with a remaining provisional ballot total of 4,466.
If today’s EXACT same percentages are applied to the remaining provisionals, 65.85% from CD2 and a 52.13 to 47.28 per cent split, then….drumroll please…
Barber picks up 143 votes and McSally wins by 36!
Obviously this post is written somewhat tongue in cheek and is not a prediction. There’s a ton of data/factors I’m probably missing. i.e…I’m sure there may be a few ballots going to duplication, and there may be a bunch of early’s still out there. There may be some conditional provisionals who show up before Wednesday night.
More significantly, today’s 52/47 split was more in line with the total county split rather than the Early Ballot Split. I’d assumed that with 92% of provisionals being valid (2012 it was 85%), the overwhelming majority of provisionals would turn out to be Permanent Early Voters who voted in person instead. As Dems have an advantage in Early Balloting, I’d expected to see numbers closer to the Early Balloting split of 54/45 rather than the election day Polling Place split (which McSally won even in Pima). So we may very well see a reversion to the mean tomorrow, with Barber getting a 57/42 split. Who knows.
Furthermore, me might get a heavier concentration of CD2 precincts and 75% of the 4466 are CD2 instead of 66%.
But I think an automatic recount is a safe bet and tomorrows results are going to be fun fun fun to watch.
This is going to be a teachable moment for many elections to come: Democracy in Action! Every vote counts.
Good luck all. 🙂
Whoever LOSES will go to court.. and ESPECIALLY if its Barber… those Demos lie cheat and Steal to keep the “minorities” on dagummint teat. Here WE go.
SO interesting that a Democrat would BELIEVE that winning by less than 2000 votes (last time) means you have FREE reign to do anything YOU want.. when you so very BARELY represent HALF your constituents.. but alas Democrats.. Whatcha gonna do? Oh Yeah.. vote them OUT.
LET’S HOPE THAT MCSALLY’S ATTY’S. GO AFTER ALL OF THE ILLEGAL ALIEN VOTES THAT HAVE BEEN CAST FOR BARBER (WE KNOW THAT THEY DIDN’T VOTE FOR MCSALLY). SAUCEDO MERCER SHOULD DO THE SAME THING AS MANY VOTES WERE CAST FOR GRIJALVA THAT WERE ALSO ILLEGAL.
Love the idiotic meme that “illegals” vote. Yeah, like somebody living in the shadows is going to do some dumbass thing to draw attention to themselves. Much more effective to keep legal minorities off the ballots like Republicans are always trying to do.
P.S. to Rick Jason: Caps lock is rude and equivalent to shouting.
Kali, the caps is to try and penetrate the thick liberal skulls with some common sense. As to your comments about illegals voting, I guess that’s why La Raza went on the internet telling Illegals where they could vote without any ID necessary. And it has been proven that in the last election, mostly in the swing states, thousands of votes from illegals were cast. Wake Up Lady!
Would Barber had gotten the votes he got if we all knew what democrats think of their “stupid” voters? Obamacare architect said they “had to lie” to get support because voters are too stupid to know what’s good for them.
That theory is now owned by the democrats. Make them eat it.
Thank you, Rick and Rat, for that preview of the adolescent, ignorant mindset we can expect from the majority in the U.S. Senate and Congress for the next two years…another deluge of conspiracy theories with absolutely no proof. The Koch-Republican mantra, scream a lie often enough and some people will begin to believe it.
You are very welcome. The last 20 years unions have outspent the Koch Bros $600M to m$12M.
Are you absolutely positive it’s not the policies of Democrats?
Please explain the ACA Obamacare lie.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2014/11/10/aca-architect-the-stupidity-of-the-american-voter-led-us-to-hide-obamacares-tax-hikes-and-subsidies-from-the-public/
Me thinks thou dost protest too much.
What dost you think?
We don’t know about this one because Pima County refuses to do a proper hand-count audit that separates vote-by-mail ballots into precincts. Two years ago, behind the back of their own elections integrity commission, Pima County sought a waiver by the Secretary of State to avoid a key procedure he had spelled out in the SOS manual – to separate early ballots before an audit. Pima County also spent millions of dollars to prevent a simple hand lens inspection of the 2006 RTA ballots. Millions to prevent what Terry Goddard was supposed to do in the first place.
We know popular consent has traditionally been the bane of both parties but one side likes to pretend to be the moral opposition of the other. Apart from the local Democratic leadership, how many of those who dignify the phony left/right paradigm by calling themselves “a Democrat” would be happy about winning a rigged election?