With a new report from Cochise County, Congressman Ron Barber lost a bit of the margin he picked up in Pima County earlier today, but he still leads GOP challenger Martha McSally by 512 votes.
But for a second night in a row, McSally did not retake the lead after Cochise County reported its count.
From what we understand, there are still about 2,000 early ballots left to count in Cochise County, which was McSally’s stronghold. There are also somewhere around 2,000 provisional ballots, but it’s unclear how many of those will end up being counted.
Meanwhile, Pima County still has roughly 4,000 early ballots (which have trended toward Barber) and about 27,000 provisional ballots. Those provisionals are the real X-factor in this race, since there’s no good model as to how provisional voters behave (especially in a case where some of those provisional ballots were the result of a computer glitch that left names off their regular spots on the voter rolls at polling places). If they behave like early voters, it will be good for Barber; if they behave like day-of-election voters, it will be good for McSally.
You’ll find more on the CD2 results here.
This article appears in Nov 8-14, 2012.
God bless Ron Barber – I voted for him & I hope he is my rep
The simple question is why AZ (and many other states) have not enacted laws so early ballots can be counted when received. Given that mail in balloting is and/or will be the preferred choice for so many voters, it is absurd to do otherwise. The exact same process of ensuring ballots are counted correctly would work just fine and there would be far less “23rd hour panic.”
Wow its nice to see a race where your vote actually does matter. GO BARBER!
Some of those “early” ballots were turned in on election day but they are not counted along with the votes cast at the polling place since those are counted as the ballot is turned in. The early ballots turned in at the polls are counted later.
If McSally wins it will mean another obstructionist will be in Congress. Embracing the Ryan Budget, which includes major cuts to the middle class and poor, and cutting health benefits for veterans is not in the best interest of the population. And not to mention that she even supports denying women to make decisions regarding their own health. It would be unfortunate to have an extremest representing us here in Arizona.
Again Arizona is in the national limelight, and not in a good way. I would be interested in seeing the breakdown by polling place and party affiliation of those voters who were missing from the rolls because of the reported “computer glitch.” I would hope there is some transparency and accountability here, and that we get a thorough explanation of what/who caused these problems. Yeah, I’m a dreamer.
The CD2 candidates will be exposed to three options, if gap is:
1. less than 200 votes (I think) a Recount will be done.
2. between 200 to 1000 votes…a Contest may go to court.
3. well over 1000 votes the CD2 race will become history.
Lets keep a close watch on this race. Good Luck for all.
Frank Henry, fmhenry4@netzero.com