A Rocky Mountain Poll showing Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump in Arizona is getting attention in the national media.

Politico notes that “Trump Could Put Arizona in Play.” The Hill reports that “Clinton Beats Trump.” PoliticsUSA’s headline is “Arizona Could Turn Blue As Both Hillary Clinton And Bernie Sanders Lead Donald Trump.” 

It’s certainly possible that Trump could lose Arizona, given that he’s one of the most unpopular people to seek the presidency. (And it looks increasingly likely he’ll win the GOP nomination after yesterday’s big wins.)

But Rocky Mountain polls don’t have a great track record in predicting the spread in presidential races. In April 2012, the Rocky Mountain Poll had Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney by 2 percentage points. In October 2012, the firm had Obama ahead of Romney by 2 percentage points. Romney won Arizona by 10 percentage points, so this week’s survey should probably come with about a pound of salt.

This article appears in Apr 21-27, 2016.

Getting hassled by The Man Mild-mannered reporter

12 replies on “Can Hillary Beat Trump in AZ?”

  1. Those polls are great fun. Today’s news is Hillary turnout drops by 20% and Trump surpassed all votes Romney got in 2012.

    Add that to your poll and we got ourselves a horse race. Problem is…they are both old paints.

  2. Trust me: This movie recommendation is related.

    Anyone with Netflix Streaming must see “Look Who’s Back,” a witty, urbane, and amusing satire about the real Adolph Hitler returning to contemporary Germany and taking over once again.

    Actually as I watched it, I kept thinking this movie is about Trump.

    Scared me nearly silly.

  3. Andrew – you should be afraid – but not of Trump, but what Barack Hussein Obama is unleashing on the American public and what Hillary pledges to continue. Many Americans have been given a death or rape sentence. Talk about war on women!

    “Immigration and Customs Enforcement released rather than deported 19,723 criminal illegal immigrants in 2015, the Washington Examiner reported Thursday.”

    “This included 208 convicted of murder and more than 900 convicted of sex crimes. The bulk of offenders, more than 12,000, were convicted on drunk driving charges, the Examiner reported, citing data from the Center for Immigration Studies, a Washington think tank.”

    http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2016/04/28/why-ice-is-releasing-and-not-deporting-illegal-immigrants-convicted-of-murder-and-sex-crimes/

  4. There you go again, What Again. Facts. Facts. Facts. They’re like Russian algrbra to the Left.

  8. The problem is not which one will win or lose, but whether supporters will accept defeat. Then and thereafter, the true character of these individuals will be tested – not in the mindless array of campaign tactics, but the realpolitik of seriously lethal global problems. If the next president fumbles too many times, America will never be great again.

  9. Well said Thinking Allowed. Just look at the rioters last night outside the Trump rally. They wrapped themselves in Mexican flags and destroyed police cars. They oppose Trumps First Amendment Rights.

    They are criminals. And should be punished.

  10. Alexander S, I was thinking aloud more about after the general election, but you have made a more specific point: lines really have been drawn sharply by Trump exercising his First Amendment Rights. Politico reported back on 12-10-15 that “Trump is energizing hate groups” as part of his “rhetoric about minority groups.” California seems an unfortunate but logical backlash. I am relieved that the GOP Convention this July is in North Ohio instead of (anywhere in or near) Arizona.

  12. Excellent discussion , I loved the details ! Does anyone know if my assistant might find a blank a form copy to type on ?

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