Tucson Weekly: At The Gate In '98 (January 8

Political Prognostications For The Coming Year.
By Jim Nintzel
THE BIGGEST LOCAL political race in 1998 promises to be the contest for the District 4 seat on the Pima County Board of Supervisors. This is a special election, made necessary by the death of Supervisor John Even just four months after he was sworn into office in January 1997.
After considerable political jockeying, the other four supervisors picked Republican Ray Carroll to replace Even.
That didn't sit well with John Even's widow, Brenda, who is already raising funds to challenge Carroll in the September Republican primary. Brenda Even, who has the support of much of the party establishment, including heavy-hitting car dealer Jim Click, is expected to raise beaucoup bucks for her campaign.
Also eyeing the seat is accountant Ken Marcus, a longtime Republican activist who was also a finalist during the appointment process last year.
Currents District 4 is heavily Republican; no word yet as to whether any Democrats will challenge the winner of the September primary.
Elsewhere in Pima County politics, Clerk of the Superior Court Jim Corbett is not expected to seek re-election. Former state lawmaker Patti Noland is planning to seek the office.
NEARLY EVERY STATEWIDE office will be up for grabs this year.
Gov. Jane Dee Hull, who inherited the office after former Gov. J. Fife Symington III resigned in disgrace following his conviction on multiple fraud counts, announced early on she planned to run for the top spot--so early, in fact, that some people suggested she might have violated Arizona's resign-to-run law. Fortunately, state Attorney General Grant Woods decided not to prosecute, sparing us all another round of ridiculous political theatre in Arizona.
Since state Sen. Tom Patterson last month gave up his gubernatorial ambitions, the only Republican who is currently challenging Hull is former TV weatherman Jim Howl, best known for reading the winning numbers on lottery night. While that gig no doubt brought Howl some statewide recognition, it's unclear how it has prepared him for the highest public office in the state.
On the Democratic side in the governor's race, supermarket magnate Eddie Basha, who was the Democrat's nominee in 1994, has chosen not to run, leaving only former Phoenix mayor Paul Johnson in the race.
In the attorney general's race, Tom McGovern, who has served as an assistant attorney general, will challenge state Rep. John Kaites in the Republican primary. Kaites is already under investigation by a special prosecutor, who--at the urging of Woods--is looking into possible fundraising violations by Kaites. Expect the politics to get nasty in that race.
The only Democrat to show interest in the AG's race is former U.S. Attorney Janet Napolitano, who recently resigned from her federal post to seek the state's top legal office.
Secretary of State Betsey Bayless, a former Maricopa County supervisor who was appointed to her current post by Hull, plans to run to keep the seat. She may face a challenge from state Rep. Art Hamilton, who may give up the statehouse to seek a spot in the executive branch.
One seat is open on the Arizona Corporation Commission, which is pledged to overseeing the state's utilities and corporations. Democrat Renz Jennings, who currently holds the seat, can't run for re-election, thanks to the state's term-limits law. Republican Gary Carnicle is thinking about running for the open post, as is state Rep. Paul Newman, a democrat who hails from Cochise County.
IN LOCAL LEGISLATIVE races, the most exciting donnybrook will be in northwest Pima County's District 13, which is currently represented by Ann Day in the Senate and Freddy Hershberger and Dan Schottel in the House of Representatives.
Although Day will probably cruise back to the Senate without a challenge, several Republicans are gearing up for the House race. Schottel is planning to run for re-election, but Hershberger's plans are less clear. Although she had said she would not seek re-election, recent rumors suggest she may have changed her mind.
Among the other Republicans said to be seeking a District 13 House seat:
Real estate broker Vicki Cox-Golder, an eight-year veteran of the Amphi School Board. She lost a bid for the Pima County Board of Supervisors in 1996;
Ted Schlinkert, who has led the opposition to developer David Mehl's massive Dove Mountain development (the master-planned community formerly known as RedHawk). Schlinkert was also involved in the incorporation of Casas Adobes.
Steve Huffman, a real estate agent who sought a District 13 House seat in 1996.
The two winners of the Republican primary may face Democrat Andy Morales, a teacher who heads up the Amphi Educational Association, a teachers' union.
Down in District 9, state Sen. Keith Bee says he planning to run for re-election, but some sources say he has suggested he might call it quits if the upcoming legislative session turns into a miserable experience.
If Bee decides to call it quits, District 9 Rep. Bill McGibbon is expected to run for the Senate seat. If not, he'll face Rep. Lou-Ann Preble and challenger Jonathan Lee Paton in the race for two House seats. The 26-year-old Paton teaches in the German department at the University of Arizona and has worked on the staff of state Sen. Stan Barnes.
In District 13, which stretches from northeastern Tucson through the Catalina Foothills, state Sen. George Cunningham probably won't face a GOP opponent, although Republican Carole Dooley has thought about challenging Cunningham.
Meanwhile, District 13's two House representatives, Andy Nichols and Brian Fagin, may face Republican Kathleen Dunbar, who is the GOP chair of D13.
In District 14, currently represented by Ruth Solomon in the Senate and Hershella Horton and Marion Pickens in the House, Republican Sam Ramirez is considering a House run. Ramirez is part-owner of the Bratwurst House.
Districts 10 and 12, both Democratic strongholds, are probably safe havens for the incumbents.
ON THE FEDERAL level, U.S. Sen. John McCain probably doesn't have much to worry about, although Democrat Ed Ranger, a Phoenix attorney, is thinking about challenging the two-term incumbent.
Congressman Jim Kolbe will probably face a challenge from Sierra Vista Councilman Harold Vangilder, a Sierra Vista councilman who sprouts Wise Use rhetoric. The winner of that race may face former Tucson Mayor Tom Volgy, who is pondering a Democratic run for the District 5 seat.
Meanwhile, District 2 Rep. Ed Pastor, the only Democrat left in Arizona's Congressional delegation, isn't likely to face serious opposition in a primary or general election.

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