With Cochise County wrapping up its vote count, the tight race between Congressman Ron Barber and Martha McSally is down to the provisional ballots left to count in Pima County. Team Barber had a lead of 709 votes as of this morning.
Today, Team Barber's Jessica Floyd released a memo detailing why she believes Barber will win:
To: Interested Parties
From: Jessica Floyd, Campaign Manager
Re: State of the AZ-02 Vote Count
Date: Thursday, November 15, 2012
With Cochise County finished counting all ballots, Pima County finished counting early ballots, and only provisional ballots in Pima County remaining, we see that Congressman Ron Barber is likely to prevail in his bid for a full term representing Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District. There are three trends that point to this likely outcome.
1. Barber's Steady Strength in the Count
Since Election Day, each day has ended with Barber in a stronger position than when that day began. At the end of Election Night, Martha McSally led, but over the next few days she saw her advantage disappear. Since then, Barber's lead has grown each day. Below are the vote margins at the end of each day: