Flake vs. Carmona: How Tight Is It?

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  • Talking Points Memo POLLTRACKER

Dennis Welch, political editor for 3TV in Phoenix, has new poll numbers in U.S. Senate showdown between Democrat Richard Carmona and Republican Jeff Flake:

The results of a surprising new poll in the U.S. Senate race were released Wednesday showing Democrat Richard Carmona beating his Republican rival.

The survey, which was conducted by a GOP-friendly firm, shows Carmona holding a 5-point edge over Jeff Flake.

Heading into the race, Flake was considered the heavy favorite to win in a state where Republicans hold a comfortable registration advantage over Democrats.

We don't know much about the poll (Welch doesn't identify who did it because the source is top-secret), so there's every reason to be skeptical about it—or at least consider it an outlier.

But as I wrote in this TW's print edition, surveys have shown a tightening race and the campaigns are trading blows.

Flake is now up on TV with this ad: