Early Ballots Drop Today: Game On in City Elections

So we've had some time to digest the Global Strategy Group poll showing Democrat Jonathan Rothschild leading Republican Rick Grinnell by 17 percentage points.

The survey, done over Oct. 10-12, showed that 49 percent of 400 likely voters back Rothschild, while 32 percent support Grinnell and 4 percent support Green Mary DeCamp. Margin of error: 5 percent.

“I'm pleased,” says Pima County Democratic Party chairman Jeff Rogers, in what has to be the understatement of the week. “Seventeen points is a good lead.”

At Monday night’s candidate forum, Grinnell said he hadn’t seen the poll, but he fell back on the standard response to discovering that you're behind: “The only poll I’m counting is Nov. 8.”

Rogers has also released a poll showing that the Democratic City Council members have even bigger leads than Rothschild. Shirley Scott led Tyler Vogt by 25 points (53 percent to 28 percent); Paul Cunningham led Jennifer Rawson by 29 points (54 percent to 25 percent); and Regina Romero led Green Beryl Baker by 32 points (49 percent to 17 percent).

All good news for the Democrats—but we are hearing rumblings from the other side that the GOP has polls showing a much closer race. Republican operative Jonathan Paton said on Arizona Illustrated's Political Roundtable a few weeks back that he'd heard tell of a poll that showed Grinnell was trailing Rothschild by just 3 points.

More on that in a moment. But first: Let’s look at the Democratic poll, which appears legit. The firm, Global Strategy Group, does political strategy and communication for candidates in battleground states, as well as PR work for clients that range from developers to the Ultimate Fighting Championship.