Some tea leaves to read in the race between Democratic Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and Republican Jesse Kelly in Southern Arizona's Congressional District 8:
Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report, who is now projecting that the GOP will pick up at least 40 seats in the midterms, has kept CD8 in the “Leans Democrat” column, although he has moved both CD5 (where Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell is facing a rematch with Republican David Schweikert) and CD1 (where Democratic incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick is facing political newcomer Paul Gosar) into the toss-up column.
In the opposite direction, Stuart Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report has moved CD8 into the pure toss-up category, while CD5 and CD1 remain in the toss-up/tilt Democrat column.
And while one Republican group released a poll last week showing the CD8 race was neck-and-neck, the National Republican Congressional Committee hasn’t yet committed to spending any money here, although they are adding CD5 and CD1 to the game. CNN reports:
A GOP source confirms to CNN that the National Republican Congressional Committee is going to expand its playing field by going up with ads in four more districts held by Democrats. That's in addition to the 41 Democratic seats already being targeted. The four new seats are in Arizona's first and fifth congressional districts, Oregon's fifth district and Pennsylvania's eighth district, all once considered safe for the Democrats.