CD8: The Numbers Game

I’m a little late in getting around to examining the CD8 poll released last week by Conservatives for Congress, an independent campaign committee. (Forgive me for taking my annual South Seas summer vacation. And yes, it’s beautiful in Waikiki this time of the year.)

Anyway, the CFC poll showed Republican Jesse Kelly with a two-to-one advantage over former lawmaker Jonathan Paton in the GOP primary that will decide which Republican will face Democratic Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords in Congressional District 8. Here's a link to the press release for the poll.

The poll of 300 likely GOP voters, which got remarkably little play in the local media, showed that 36 percent of voters were supporting Kelly, 17 percent were supporting Paton and 5 percent were supporting Brian Miller. Another 39 percent were undecided.

There was more bad news for Paton in the poll, which was taken on July 26-27 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.66 percent.

The survey inquired about what sort of things might hurt a candidate’s chances at the ballot box.

Only 8 percent of those polled said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who was a lobbyist before running for office; 31 percent said it would make them somewhat less likely to vote for the candidate, while 43 percent said it would make them much less likely to vote for the candidate.

Even worse news for Paton: Only 4 percent said they’d be more likely to vote for a candidate who