Depending on the day, the hour, the minute, I’m either riding a political merry-go-round or a roller coaster. Sometimes it’s the regular emotional ups, downs, around and arounds of a horsey ride with insipid calliope music playing in the background. Other times it’s a slow ascent to exhilarating heights followed by a stomach-dropping plummet into the depths of despair.
At this moment I’m riding the post-Arizona primary merry-go-round.
The winning Democratic candidates look promising, even if they aren’t all my first choice. Analysts are coloring the state purplish. It’s well within the realm of possibility that we’ll see Democrats win statewide races — Governor Garcia, anyone? — not to mention the chance we could witness a no-McSally twofer, where she loses her Senate race to Kyrsten Sinema and her old congressional seat goes to Ann Kirkpatrick. Thoughts like that boost my hopes that we’ll see some change for the better in this Republican-run state.
Then I take a look at the primary voting numbers on the Secretary of State website, and my hopes drop into a slough of despond. In the governor’s race, Republican candidates pulled in a total of 553,000 votes. The Democratic total was 430,000. That’s a 123,000 gap in Republicans’ favor, more than a 12 percent difference. The U.S. Senate numbers are similar: 551,000 votes for Republicans, 433,000 for Democrats.
The numbers are a bit less dire in the Education Superintendent’s race: 486,000 for Republican candidates versus 414,000 for Democrats, an 8 percent difference. Democrats held more of their voters down ballot than Republicans. But an 8 percent gap is still daunting.
Congressional District 2, a tossup district where Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick will face off against Republican Lea Marquez Peterson, raises my hopes a bit. Democrats cast 76,700 votes, Republicans 66,400. That’s 7 percent in the Democrats’ favor.
When I climb off the merry-go-round, plant my feet on solid ground and take a more objective look at the political landscape, my takeaway is, Arizona isn’t a purple state, not yet. At best, from a Democratic standpoint, it’s reddish-purple. Democrats can still come up winners if the predicted blue wave breaks just right and candidates have a favorable wind at their backs, but no question, Democrats are the underdogs. To win, they have to out-campaign and out-hustle their opponents, probably with a fraction of the money available to Republicans, and put together a sensational voter registration and Get Out The Vote effort.
Time for me to climb back on my Arizona merry-go-round. After some MSNBC and a little Bill Maher tonight, it’ll probably be back to the thrills and chills of the national political roller coaster.
This article appears in Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2018.
Lest ye not forget that the general election has at least 50% fewer choices than did the primary. You may have an even lower turnout in November. You can’t pay people to vote, they have to want to. Even with all the freebies being offered they can’t draw more than 30-35% of eligible voters. 70% have given up. At least your merry go round isn’t crowed.
That “blue wave” that corporate media outlets like MSNBC keep spouting about doesn’t seem to have made it to Pima County. Maybe Progressive Democrats weren’t that enthused after the outside money flooded in for the establishment pick (Kirkpatrick). These are the turnout percentages by party for Pima County. Greens even turned out better than Democrats even though the Green Party had a blank ballot with eligible write-in candidates for only two or three races, depending on your district.
VOTER TURNOUT – TOTAL . . . . . . 38.00
VOTER TURNOUT – DEMOCRATIC. . . . . 53.48
VOTER TURNOUT – REPUBLICAN. . . . . 57.18
VOTER TURNOUT – LIBERTARIAN . . . . 15.66
VOTER TURNOUT – GREEN . . . . . . 56.70
You think these numbers don’t look good. Wait until November!!
I agree. I wouldn’t like it either if I was going to get my ass handed to me in Nov.
I supported david garcia in primary but never heard from him or got material. the fred duval clone e-mailed me every day ( I e-mailed him back too!) ann kirkpatrick just what we don’t need another clinton clone turnoff! what is the az democrats message besides were for education? which too many white vote voters see as controlled by education lobby. black voters need to be appealed to so they will come out. that leaves hispanic vote. david garcia needs to fire up the base starting now!
When prognosticating, ignore the largest voting block at your own risk. The “silent plurality” of independent voters can and probably will sway the coming election. If independents turnout actually is a low as projected (10%), that amounts to over 100,000 voters coming to the polls with no stated preference. This year, turnout may well be higher and the role of independent voters more significant. Ignoring over 35% of eligible voters renders analysis meaningless.
I live in maricopa county and the democratic party seems non existent up here. I have been told when I complain to party establishment about lack of militancy that corporate donor class doesn’t like aggressiveness. so paid staff wants to keep the money flowing so their pay checks don’t bounce. good government liberal punching bag leaders is what the $$$ establishment prefers. I am never contacted by local democrats (maybe they don’t exist?) just a few flyers in mail and a robo call or two during election season. anyone here think like me kirkpatrick was brought in as stalking horse so a real progressive didn’t win the seat?
Much of the difference in voter turnout for the primaries is the result of the Senate races. The Republicans had a competitive race, whereas the Democrats did not. Nor was there any doubt about the gubernatorial race on the Democratic side. Were there competitive races in either of those races, Democratic voter turnout would have been much higher. Also, as has been mentioned, the key to all races nowadays is the Independent vote. I wouldn’t put much stock into the primary numbers for these and other reasons. Get off the merry go round and take a nice stroll.
The question is will the Democrats manage to energize voters. The sad answer is probably not. They are running hard against Trump but not towards anything. The problem with being the party of change as opposed to the party of the status quo is that you actually have to have a vision for change. I don’t see the Democrats offering that.
Voting is a duty of every eligible citizen. Anyone who disagrees should move to a nation that lives under dictatorship; they’ll surely be happier living there.
If you know of eligible voters who decline to vote, ostracize them.
This is war.
If you think Ducey et al. are bad now, just wait till they win re-election; things will get very bad, very quickly for ordinary Arizonans.