Public Policy Polling delivers new numbers about the race between President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney in Arizona. The Democratic-leaning firm also looked at how the race changed with Jan Brewer, John McCain or Joe Arpaio as Romney’s running mates, but concluded that those choices weren’t all that plausible:
Arizona’s looking a little bit less intriguing for Barack Obama than it did three months ago, when PPP polled it in the middle of the Republican primary contest. At the time it was tied but Mitt Romney’s now opened back up a 50-43 advantage in the state.
Arizona makes a rare state where Romney actually has a positive favorability rating, at 46/45. Meanwhile Obama is unpopular there with only 41% of voters approving of his job performance to 56% who disapprove. Romney’s ahead 48-38 with independents. Obama’s dominating the Hispanic vote as he is most places, leading 63-35, but Obama’s going to have to keep it closer with whites than his current 56-36 deficit if he’s going to have a chance at carrying the state.
One thing that could make the race more competitive in Arizona, perhaps more so than other states, is Gary Johnson’s presence on the ballot as the Libertarian candidate. He pulls 9% in Arizona and he takes a lot more support away from Romney than he does Obama, narrowing Romney’s lead in the state to 45-41. History suggests it’s quite unlikely Johnson would really pull 9% in the end but it shows how many voters are unhappy with their main choices in this race.
None of Arizona’s major Republican politicians seem like terribly plausible Romney running mate choices, and none of them would help him in the state anyway. Voters continue to be closely divided in their feelings about Jan Brewer with 47% approving and 45% disapproving of her. If she was on the ticket Romney’s lead over Obama actually drops to just 48-44. John McCain’s 36/54 approval spread makes him the least popular Senator in the country in our current polling and if he was Romney’s choice the race would tighten to 48-43 in the state. Joe Arpaio has a 46/45 favorability rating (down a net 6 points from 49/42 a year ago at this time) and with him as the running mate Romney would lead Obama only 46-44.
Arizona’s still within the realm of possibility for Obama but he’s going to have to really step it up with white voters to make it more competitive.
This article appears in May 17-23, 2012.
“The Democratic leaning firm” pretty much says it all. We Republicans thank them for their gratuitous advice. Tucson Weekly, why don’t you ask Alec Baldwin for his advice to Republicans? It would have the same relevancy as this baloney. Have you ever asked a Republican leaning firm for their advice to Democrats??? I thought not.
So,Willard,leading in AZ polls ! To bad ! Sheriff Joe,schmoe,should go ! We need a New Sheriff ! Arizona,needs to stop living in the past !
Hey,Arizona ! “where javelinas rule” Please stop “Messing with the Mex”
Learn from History ! I really hate to go,way back in the past ! But remember 1492!
Amazing! The poll found with Mickey Mouse as VP, Romney would win in a landslide.
I’d hate to give my vote to a succesful business man but the only recourse would be to vote for a guy who gave us high employment and a thriving economy……I’ll go with the guy who made 250 million bucks…..that success may have a good effect on us….
Romney is leading in Arizona, I’m shocked. Considering he is likely dominating among the three biggest voting blocks in the state – racists, high school or less education, creepy Mormon cultists – I’m surprised he isn’t leading by more.
All the sheep of every other county in this state will vote for Romney even if hitlers corpse was his running mate, in fact that would probably help him with the tea baggers.
Romney should wear a pirate’s patch over one eye when he debates Obama. His perfect running mate would be his buddy Donald Trump. (You’re fired.) Vote Romney for president of the Cayman Islands. What a patriot! (What a fake).