Research 2000 has new polling numbers in Arizona on the U.S. Senate and governor races, as well as approval numbers for SB 1070, Arizona’s new immigration bill. You can see the numbers for yourself here (and the favorable/unfavorable numbers are fascinating), but Daily Kos has some key takeaways, including the impact of SB 1070 on the GOP’s share of the Hispanic vote:

GOP primary, Governor

Jan Brewer (R) 32
Buz Mills (R) 14
Dean Martin (R) 13
John Munger (R) 5
Undecided 36

GOP primary, Senate

John McCain (R) 48 (52)
J.D. Hayworth (R) 36 (37)

We didn’t poll the governor’s race last time, an oversight on my part. In the Senate primary, McCain is now under 50 percent. These numbers are actually quite similar to the polling average, though Rasmussen is the usual outlier with a much tighter race.

In the general election:
Senate

John McCain (R) 48 (52)
Rodney Glassman (D) 35 (33)

J.D. Hayworth (R) 43 (48)
Rodney Glassman (D) 42 (37)

Yup, start rooting for J.D. Note that McCain is only getting 10 percent of Latino support. He got 74 percent of Latinos in 2004, and 40 percent of them in his presidential bid in 2008.

And now he’s down to 10 percent. The Arizona GOP has lost Latinos, virtually overnight. That will have an impact this year, and it’ll have an impact on

John Kyl’s race in two years, and into the future.
Governor

Jan Brewer (R) 42
Terry Goddard (D) 48

Goddard has double-digit leads on the rest of the GOP field. Jan Brewer’s support among Latinos is nine percent, while once upon a time Republicans routinely got at least 40 percent of the Latino vote In statewide races.

Granted, this is one poll, but those Latino numbers are worth watching.

The survey also notes that 53 percent of voters like Arizona’s new immigration law, while 36 percent opposed it.

But Research 2000 asked a follow-up question:

Arizona now requires anyone passing through or living in their state to carry papers proving citizenship that can be produced at the command of any law enforcement officers. Do you approve or disapprove of this requirement?

Support for that dropped to 48 percent, with 44 percent disapproving.

This article appears in May 6-12, 2010.

Getting hassled by The Man Mild-mannered reporter

9 replies on “New Poll Numbers: McCain by 12 Over Hayworth. Goddard by 4 Over Brewer. GOP Loses Hispanic Vote”

  1. Arizona now requires anyone passing through or living in their state to carry papers proving citizenship that can be produced at the command of any law enforcement officers. Do you approve or disapprove of this requirement?

    Uum…… When did Arizona pass this? This is not what SB1070 says. What kind of question is this? Talk about a spin! I support the bill but even I would’nt agree to this if i was asked. FAIL!

  2. I believe this is exactly what SB1070 says. If in Arizona one must be able to prove that one is an American citizen. No racial profiling – just solid proof. Period. Whether you are “passing through” is immaterial. How many vehicles with possible illegals are just “passing through”? Duh. Either you are legal and can prove it, or you will be detained until you can. No exceptions.

    Bet you’re sorry you support this draconian thing now. If not, you should be.

  3. No, actually it’s not what it says. This is what it says –

    FOR ANY LAWFUL CONTACT MADE BY A LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL OR AGENCY
    OF THIS STATE OR A COUNTY, CITY, TOWN OR OTHER POLITICAL SUBDIVISION OF THIS
    STATE WHERE REASONABLE SUSPICION EXISTS THAT THE PERSON IS AN ALIEN WHO IS
    UNLAWFULLY PRESENT IN THE UNITED STATES, A REASONABLE ATTEMPT SHALL BE MADE, WHEN PRACTICABLE, TO DETERMINE THE IMMIGRATION STATUS OF THE PERSON.

    Notice the words “lawfull contact”. It doesn’t say anything about “produced at the command of any law enforcement officers”. Citizenship is checked after you have been stopped based on reasonable suspicion of another crime. Big difference.

  5. Yes, of course I have read the bill – but it “clearly states” one thing to me and another to you. Perhaps this is why Sherriff Dupnik and TPD Chief Villaseñor are opposed to it. You can interpret it any way you choose and either way you can be sued. Further this “on demand” has already happened to A PHX commercial truck driver who was detained even though he produced all proper identification required under current law. He was held until his wife could produce his birth certificate. It sets a nasty precedent and the law hasn’t even gone into effect.

    Now; clearly it is useless to get into a pissing contest with a skunk – and I have wasted enough time on the likes of you today. Good day to you sir.

  6. Once the Latinos become informed about this new law and realize that it is not racist but a followup on the Federal Law they will shift their vote back to the GOP. McCain has the race won because of his experience, because of his integrity and his fighting power against this administration. JD cannot offer us the same quality of intelligence and in these dark times economically, we need the third most fiscally conservative member in Senate/McCain!

  7. Excuse me? McCain, integrity? You’re joking, right? McCain the Maverick, never a Maverick, the backer of immigration reform and the supporter of SB1070, and so much more; that McCain? Integrity is not the word that comes to my mind

  8. “Once Latinos become informed about the law…they will shift their vote back to the GOP.” ROTFLMAO. The GOP has lost the Latino vote for at least a generation.

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