The latest number of ballot returns from the Tucson City Clerk’s office, as of this morning:

Democrats: 30,867
Republicans: 19,903
Libertarians: 358
Greens: 215
Independents/Etc: 13,139

For those who are wondering: That’s roughly 35 percent turnout. And, on sheer numbers, we’ve got 64,482 ballots turned back in, which is closing in on the 74,168 ballots that were cast in the ’09 city election. The Range would not be surprised to see record-breaking turnout in this city election.

Your math challenge of the day: If Democratic City Councilwoman Shirley Scott gets 85 percent of the Democratic vote and 5 percent of the Republican vote, while Republican Tyler Vogt gets 95 percent of the Republican vote and 15 percent of the Democrat vote, what percentage of independent votes does Vogt need to get to win the race?

Congrats to Austin Counts for nailing yesterday’s math challenge.

This article appears in Nov 3-9, 2011.

Getting hassled by The Man Mild-mannered reporter

7 replies on “Latest City Election Numbers, Plus Your Math Challenge of the Day!”

  3. Using the figures above, I also get 28%. Curious. Hope you’ll show us your math when the answer is revealed, Nintz!

  4. I think I understand where y’all got the 28 percent guess, but you’re forgetting that the rest of the indie vote goes to Scott. Want to try again?

  5. Vogt would need approximately 63% of independent votes, assuming that he also gets 100% of the libertarian votes (which is, I think, a given, but also completely unimportant given the small number of votes cast). Here’s the math:

    Scott votes: 32,094 (26,237 D, 995 R, 4861 I)
    Vogt votes: 32,173 (4,630 D, 18,908 R, 8,278 I, 358 L)

    What do the Greens do? Who cares?

  6. I should add that one flaw in this whole exercise (including my own analysis) is the assumption that every voter has cast a vote in the Vogt/Scott race. My guesses are that (1) there are more votes cast for mayor than for any of the council races, (2) to the extent that votes ARE cast, it probably favors Vogt, since there is probably more anti-Scott than pro-Scott enthusiasm. Still, it’s fun.

  7. “I think I understand where y’all got the 28 percent guess, but you’re forgetting that the rest of the indie vote goes to Scott. Want to try again?”

    Aha – details not included in the original problem! I didn’t realize that was the assumption. Thanks for the hint.

    So, using just the Dem, Rep, and Indie figures, I get 64%. Looks like DRW got it, yes?

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