I, like many Arizonans, have been following Gov. Doug Ducey’s regular COVID-19 press conferences. I really appreciate him doing these pressers—it allows the media to make inquiries about his policy choices in the face of the current crisis. And I’ve been able to closely examine the case that he has been making to justify his policies.
His case has not been made in good faith.
The Arizona-based political blog that I manage, BlogForArizona.net, has been following the COVID-19 crisis in Arizona closely. I have documented Ducey’s deceptive manipulation of White House & CDC guidance to justify re-opening the state’s businesses and places of public accommodation, and his misleading justification for staying the course, even as the epidemic becomes more and more obviously resurgent in Arizona.
In his May 20 presser, Ducey laid out his case for re-opening Arizona. He pointed to the White House’s guidance “Opening Up America Again” and the implementation guidelines provided by the CDC, using them to argue that Arizona met the gating criteria for moving into Phase One of the White House plan.
The problem is that Arizona did not then, and does not now, meet these criteria.
Primarily, the White House/CDC plan requires that a state have a 14-day period of declining case numbers before entering Phase One. Arizona has never had a downward trajectory in case numbers over a 2-week period. In fact, data from the Arizona Department of Health Services clearly show that the number of known cases has either increased or briefly held steady (depending on the specific period) since the epidemic began. But Ducey has elected to ignore this fact in favor of a clever and misleading dodge based on the expansion of testing in Arizona from 10 thousand tests per week to about 40 thousand tests per week.
You see, the White House/CDC plan includes an alternative criterion for entry into Phase One; the plan also allows it if the state has a 14-day period in which the percentage of positive cases declines, but only if testing is “largely stable” and if good data for the number of actual cases are not available. Given its four-fold increase, testing in Arizona obviously has not been stable. Nonetheless, because the increased testing caused the percentage of positive cases to decrease, Ducey pointed to this decrease to justify re-opening, The alternative method was not intended to enable states to ignore an actual rise in their number of cases. Yet Ducey ignored the clear danger of re-opening when case numbers were not yet declining.
Ducey has misled Arizonans by claiming that this alternative method of proving a decline in cases was a better metric than the actual number of cases. Ducey has repeatedly argued that the rising trajectory in cases is somehow irrelevant to his decision to re-open and stay open. If he valued Arizona’s health, the actual number of cases should have been his most important metric to decide whether to re-open the state, and whether to stay open. In response to political pressure from his base, he instead cherry-picked his metric, and then tweaked it, to justify re-opening in face of clear and compelling evidence that the epidemic had never declined in Arizona in the first place.
The wheels finally came off this jalopy when Arizona Capitol Media’s Howie Fischer confronted the Ducey with the percentage of positive test percentages from the past few days. Howie pointed out the data the Ducey presented at the June 4 presser, stopped on May 31, “which is convenient since on June 1, the positive tests went to 6.5%, June was 11.5%, and June 3 totaled 14.7%,” The percentage of positive tests are exploding. Yet the amount of testing in the state has been flat or even declining since mid-May. The idea that we are seeing more cases in the last few weeks because there’s been more testing is just flat out false.
Secondly, the White House/CDC plan requires a state to have a “robust” testing capacity before re-opening. The purpose is to ensure that any resurgence in infections triggered by re-opening can be effectively tracked. Arizona’s testing program cannot possibly be called “robust” with a straight face; it has been consistently among the last in per capita testing among the states. Despite Ducey’s oft-repeated touting of a “testing blitz,” the increase in testing availability in Arizona has not been enough to move it from the back of the pack. As of June 8, Arizona ranked #45 among the states in per capita testing. Although Ducey is well aware of Arizona’s poor testing capacity, he has pushed ahead recklessly with a corporate-style PR campaign about a “testing blitz” that was actually more of a “lazy testing stroll.”
Arizona did not meet the White House gating criteria for Phase One in mid-May when Ducey ordered Arizona to re-open, and Arizona does not meet those criteria now. Despite the mounting and undeniable evidence that the epidemic is growing rapidly once again, Ducey continues with his reckless policy.
However, Ducey seems to have recognized that the jig is up. During his latest presser (June 4), he completely pivoted his messaging, claiming that he always expected—and told the public he expected—a rise in the number of cases. The rise was “expected” upon re-opening as a result of increased testing. However, he never mentioned this “expectation” in his pressers, and in fact, now that testing has flattened, the number of cases is still going up. Ducey apparently agrees that all this testing is the problem. Maybe that’s why Arizona is still just #45 in the nation.
Ducey now claims that the most important measure of the state of the epidemic in Arizona is whether the medical system can handle the “expected” increase in cases without “crisis care.” Although he hasn’t defined “crisis care,” he likely has the CDC’s metrics in mind: whether medical facilities are becoming overburdened and whether residents can be treated for the disease without emergency measures or shortages of needed equipment and personnel. But both are now happening in Arizona.
The state’s largest medical network is sounding the alarm that their ICUs are near maximum capacity and that they have run out of the ECMO (Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation) machines that sustain the life of patients whose lungs have completely shut down from the virus. (They bypass the lungs to directly oxygenate your blood. I suspect that an ECMO machine shortage will soon replace the ventilator shortage as a national issue.) Now, Ducey’s own Arizona Department of Health Services is activating emergency capacity procedures for medical facilities statewide.
How soon will Ducey acknowledge that his politically motivated rush to re-open has backfired with a resurgence of the epidemic? How many more must sicken and die before Ducey reverses his reckless policy?
Ducey lied to Arizona. We were never ready to re-open. He ignored obvious evidence showing the continued spread of the virus, and failed to sufficiently expand Arizona’s testing capacity beyond the bottom of the barrel.
Now the virus is spreading again. It may soon spiral out of control, exceeding the capacity of our medical system, endangering Arizonans’ lives, and further damaging the state economy.
And what is Ducey doing about it? Staying the course. To disaster.
This article appears in Jun 4-10, 2020.
Curious. Both charts in the article end about two weeks ago so data is missing. I know numbers are going up and up. Today we logged the second highest number of new cases of all fifty states. Florida was in the lead.
However, testing is NOT going down. There have been massive testing blitzes throughout the state in the last two weeks. It was going down for a while, but no longer.
I’d really like to see up-to-date charts and we’d have a more accurate picture. According to worldometers.info, on May 24 we’d given 260,660 tests and as of this morning we’d given 409,174. That’s more than a 1/3 jump in two weeks.
In that same time, the number of cases has jumped by over 70%. How many of those are due to testing is unknown.
Perhaps a better measure is numbers in hospitals (growing quickly) and number dead (growing slowly). I don’t know what all of these numbers and comparisons mean so I leave it to someone who understands statistics far better than I do.
One need only peruse briefly, and scarcely beyond its masthead the content offerings of this writer’s (Bryan/Michael) blog: “BlogForArizona.net” and it becomes obvious that the rag’s glowing endorsement by the Washington Post is well deserved, in keeping with the venerable Post’s affection for all things obediently left leaning. Here you will, unsurprisingly feel at home if you are lazily comfortable with being spoonfed socialist drivel and prefer to wear the badge (now the mask) of liberalism and are content with the familiar feeling of that kneejerk that signals that you have been indwelled by the current politically correct narrative. So, you’re good to go. With respect to coronavirus, the article surely seems well written, but beware the smoke and mirrors and seek to be more well informed. Watch the press conferences for yourself. Study the actual figures. Talk to hospital personnel.Take sensible precautions, enjoy life and go forward understanding that our governor and his advisors are doing an exemplary job helping the people of Arizona move forward through a difficult time while skillfully balancing the sometimes competing concerns of how we take personal responsibility for looking out for one another through this season of illnesses and maintain the integrity of our economic lives and livelihoods. Job well done, Governor Ducey.
In fact, Scott, I have spoken to hospital personnel in the form of my wife, an ER doc. And, yes, there has been a dramatic upswing in Covid cases in the past two weeks. She didn’t ask if they were liberals, because many of them had trouble breathing much less speaking.
Keep drinking the Kool Aid.
Scott Woods, Your comment blasts the article’s author, liberals in general and the Washington Post, yet you offer nothing of substance with which to refute points made. I have been tracking numbers from numerous sources each day, including the Johns Hopkins numbers, the summaries from AZ state and county health departments posted on the NY Times and others. It is clear that AZ cases have been exploding over the past two weeks. For instance, 2 weeks ago, the new cases per day, per 100K people in AZ was at 2.6; as of yesterday it was at 10.8–a 4.1 fold increase. Another data point from a comparison chart I have kept with Washington state, where I spend part of the year: in mid-April, AZ had 3,000 cases to WA’s ~12,000. Eight weeks later, WA cases have doubled to 25,000, but AZ is closing in on 29,000 cases. Our state population is similar to that of Washington, but Washington’s steps to contain, test and trace, along with using CDC data to allow Phase 2 reopening, have mitigated the damage of the epidemic far better than Arizona.
I have several family members who are treating COVID patients and have had much communication with them about this pandemic. Hospitals in some locations are reaching their limit of resources, and we will be paying the price Ducey’s poor decisions in the months ahead.
B G, if he replies expect nothing to be addressed except that you used NYT as one of your references.
Ha ha, well the NY Times is getting its data from every county and state health department, so he would be dissing Arizona’s own numbers. The NYT does a nice job of creating interactive graphs, however, as does Johns Hopkins University.
Numbers are climbing because of protesters. Five more days and numbers will start to drop. When can the families have funerals for their loved ones?
Numbers are climbing because the state opened back up for business on May 15. Protests only started a week ago, because most people in AZ don’t wear masks. Admittedly we may see a surge from the protests as well.
Japan, which has about 1/3 the population of the U.S., has had only 1 percent of the cases we have had here in the U.S. As soon as an epidemic arises, nearly all Japanese put on masks, which keep pre and early-symptomatic people from infecting others. It works.
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Covid-19, Corona virus death rates per one million population:
New York City:……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………2,347
New York State:……………………………………………………………………………………….1,543
New Jersey:………………………………………………………………………………….1,393
Connecticut:………………………………………………………………………………1,149
Massachusetts:………………………………………………………………….1,075
United Kingdom………………………………………………………….602
Spain………………………………………………………………….580
Italy……………………………………………………………….563
France…………………………………………………………..449
United States:……………………..343
Arizona……..143
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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/…
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/…
Thank you for telling like it is. The governor has failed us. I have been keeping close tabs on the data since May 5. I am convinced that had Ducey waited until The middle of June to start opening, had mandated masks and worn a mask, had implemented contact tracing (I know several people who VOLUNTEERED to do this), and had followed CDC guidelines, we would not have been in the situation we are now. I also believe that many Arizonans who by now should know better having seen Dr. Fauci, the success of New York State and the scary spikes that have occurred in other states that were opened before Arizona and before the protests, are equally responsible since many have refused to wear a mask when entering enclosed spaces or practiced social distancing at places like Tumamoc Hill while hiking. We can do better. The Governor and Dr. Christ can, too.
Honorhealth is ill-equipped to handle COVID-19. They implemented a hiring freeze at the onset of the COVID crisis that is still in place. That means they have hired less staff in the past several months than in a non-crisis period even though every model I watched predicted hospital systems being overwhelmed within a month or two. I receive e-mails every day asking me to pick up extra shifts because they are short on staff. A current patch includes sending RNs who are not trained in critical care to work in the ICU as support staff while increasing the nurse-patient ratios for the ICU RNs. They have enough PPE only if it is reused to the point of overt failure. Cash cow elective surgeries persist despite a lack of human and material resources. It’s profits over patients every time.
Masks work. Masks don’t work. WHO says it is not spread by human contact then they changed that position a little.
If masks eliminate the risk, wear one. It would prevent you from being infected.
Unless you touch something that was touched by someone else.
Don’t forget to not touch your mailbox as the mailman is not wearing gloves.
The percentage of Arizonans that did NOT get it are 99.999957.
You might know one of them.
Just to clarify about the charts I used: I thought I made it clear. I screen-shotted those directly from the AZ DHS data dashboard the day I wrote this. I am relying on data the STATE is giving out. If there is a deficiency of that data, it’s on the STATE for not providing it, not this author. Complain to Dr. Cara Christ. Of course, if the charts DID include the very latest data, they would only support my case more strongly. We have a re-emerging crisis here in Arizona and Ducey continues to do nothing about it.
As to the majority of these comments, thank you for reading and bringing your own insights and data to bear on this issue. Please continue to keep informed and keep yourself safe, since your state is failing to protect your health.
To detractors: renounce your denialism. It will only make you feel foolish in the end. Like global warming, forever chemicals in our water, and cigarettes causing cancer, denying the reality of science does nothing but hamper a rational response to a crisis. This is happening whether you like it, and deny it, or not. The virus doesn’t care about your feelings, your job, or your life. That’s the new reality. Adapt.
“If masks eliminate the risk, wear one. It would prevent you from being infected.”
Masks prevent people around you catching it if you have it They do little to prevent you from catching it.
Wearing a mask is a selfless act to protect the folks around you. Well, not entirely, it keeps other people from getting infected, saving a hospital bed for yourself should you need it.
This is a potentially life or death issue for many. AZ was spared early rises in infections because of the variation in geography, lifestyle and distances. ADHS has hazily advised citizens to follow CDC policies to prevent the spread of the disease. Balancing people’s rights with information is important- but first the state needs to clearly inform the Citizen! They have not demonstrated the seriousness of increased spread by their comments or actions. They have not explained clearly and strongly the consequences of not following guidelines. suckitup buttercup above is an example of not under-standing the mask…they are primarily used to prevent spread from the carrier, not protect the recipient. Many carry the virus without knowing it. This demonstrates the lack of education or selfish attitude towards others. At this time in Arizona the pandemic data is very difficult to interpret for lay community and even some health care personnel not trained in epidemiology. ADHS has not been transparent and has not taken the steps to educate the public. It is beyond credulity that a committee of experts are not advising and making recommendations for the state ; instead it appears that only a few people can decide the fate of this state’s health- based on politics and not science. It is scientifically possible to look at rates of excess deaths caused by the disease and by being shut in and make policy decisions about opening based on data- not belief. The increasing number of COVID ER visits, ICU , ventilators and hospitalisations are predicted; and closer to the core of what’s happening in last 1-2 weeks, and are “alarming”. The death rate represents 3-4 weeks ago. The rate of change positive percentage of PCR tests is also pointed. Now, the number of tests are not as important. We are beyond a very scary turning point. A solid program of scientifically accurate town hall question and answers on the virus, public figures informed by real expert panels; and mask wearing ordinances , and enforcement of existing guidelines could save thousands of lives. Preventing excess disease should be the focus. Who says besides the governor that our goal is to prevent an ICU crisis? We now are at a crisis with no ECMO left and there has been no non-rhetorical, enforceable or timely measures made into this predicted surge of cases. Our governor and health officials are incompetent. Dr. D. MD/PhD MSc.
Coronavirus patients without symptoms aren’t driving the spread of the virus, World Health Organization officials said Monday, casting doubt on concerns by some researchers that the disease could be difficult to contain due to asymptomatic infections.
Preliminary evidence from the earliest outbreaks indicated that the virus could spread from person-to-person contact, even if the carrier never develops symptoms. But WHO officials now say that while asymptomatic spread can occur, it is not the main way it’s being transmitted.
“From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual,” Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said at a news briefing from the United Nations agency’s Geneva headquarters. “It’s very rare.”
They did a testing blitz… and are testing more daily then they could in the beginning, hence the higher numbers. If they could’ve tested like crazy in the beginning then you would have seen how many people actually had it and we would likely be on a downward tract. Remember this was one of the worst flu like symptom years and more than likely starting as early as December people here had COVID-19, but didn’t even know that existed yet and thought they had the flu. Therefore its being realized that a large portion of the population has probably already come in contact with COVID-19, likely more than 50% of the population has already had COVID-19(all that serology testing that’s being done is showing this). Also the goal from the beginning was to manage its spread so not to overwhelm the healthcare system because 100% of people will contract it at some point. They may need to hold off on elective surgeries since that is whats taking most all of the bed spaces at the hospitals. Last I checked 20% inpatient were COVID related and 24% ICU COVID patients. So we are nowhere near capacity and have plenty of healthcare system to manage the few people who do get severely sick. Like I said and everyone said in the beginning it was just to slow the spread since everyone will contract it at some point unless we shut EVERYTHING down for at least one month, no one can leave their house, not a single person and absolutely no businesses can be open. An actual quarantine where 100% of the population doesn’t move. I know way more people that suffering from losing their jobs, not being able to put food on the table for their families or pay rent and other bills. Everyday I learn of another small business that has had to close and even large ones as well. Mental health is in critical condition as suicides are way up and people were not allowed to see there therapist during the stay at home orders. I wish someone would report on how many people have been forced into poverty which will have a generational effect of poor living conditions and shortened life spans which will vastly outpace COVID deaths. Wish someone with common sense could do some real investigative journalism without bias, be able to read and understand data and just report the facts so that people could decide. Its as if journalist think they have to tell people how to think because if they don’t the readers and viewers won’t be able to come to the conclusion the journalist wants them too. Stay safe everyone and remember living in fear is not living at all, its letting someone control you. Always seek the whole story as it will give you a clear picture of any situation and actually let you rationalize whats going on and what to do. Too close to any one part of the story and you will loose focus which will let fear rule your decision making.
We have plenty of ICU units and the number of ICU units is readily expandable. Other states have doubled their ICU units in a single month, we undoubtedly could do the same. As ICU patients increased, so did our ICU capacity, we have seen a large increase in Arizona ICU capacity since the beginning of the crisis.
There just isn’t any shortage of ventilators. If necessary, we can call upon stockpiles nationwide.
Our COVID-19 death rate is below the national average, way below, Less than half the national average.
The population’s COVID-19 knowledge is more extensive than for any other disease in history. This enables everyone to chose their level of risk. Want to stay healthy? Don’t go to bars, don’t go to rock concerts and when you go to the grocery store: wear a mask, an N95 mask or a KN95 mask.
The data suggests that quite a few people were reckless with their lives. Many of them are now paying the price for the risks they took.
As a state, we had zero ECMO capacity at the beginning of this crisis so its not surprising that we don’t have much ECMO capacity five and a half months into the crisis. The pretense that the shortage of ECMO capacity is a product of changing COVID-19 case load is a fiction.
Why we had and have little to no ECMO capacity should be the subject of major research at our universities. Over a thousand people die from influenza triggered cytokine storm, the most predominate COVID-19 killing effect, in Arizona every year. What did they do to try and save these poor souls?
I’m 74 years old. My car plates expire 15 Jun, 2020. Up until 31 May, the State gave an exception for Seniors for emission testing if you car needed it. The exception started in March ended in May. I wrote to Ducey twice to get it extended but lost. I explained to him that the threat to seniors was no different on 31 May than it was 15 March also told him that it would do nothing but increase by 15 June. I was sent to ADOT then to ADEQ where I first started by leaving two voicemails. I just have to laugh about how Ducey squatted and peed when Trump told him to open AZ 15 May (or else).
Did you note the state played with the ICU bed % numbers this week? I’ve been watching them closely (almost every day), and up until this week the latest numbers were at 80 or above for the last few weeks. Now suddenly even the historical numbers are showing under 80. Very fishy.
What is wrong with people who identify with the republican party? It’s as though people’s lives or anything related to helping others is an abomination and needs to be attacked. I don’t know any republican who is not angry about something related to compassion, generosity, or ethical policies. I have family that are rabid, angry conservatives that thrive on hate; hate seems to be their “tackling fuel.” I wonder if there is research that connects political leanings with psychological profiles? Anybody?
To Bete B: there was a reporting problem with bed occupation rates. There is a planned expansion of some 2200 regular beds and 500 icu bards. These beds were being reported as filled, along with the actual beds. When the AZDHS discovered the problem, they revised the data which resulted in small decrease in utilization rates. I was suspicious of the revision as well, but the numbers do work out. I don’t think there is any dishonesty there: just a mistake.
The argument that “the numbers are higher because more testing is being done” is misguided. Of course the raw numbers would be higher. What matters is percentages of those tested that test positive. If you double the number of tests that you do and find more than double the amount of positives, you have growth–and a problem. It’s hard to know if leaders are using the numbers to mislead or if they really don’t understand the math themselves. The result is deadly either way.
I believe the mayors need to be given power to take control of their cities! Ducey needs to change his executive order and let the mayors have a say ! Even the mayor of Phoenix does not agree with the governor! I am finally glad to see a reporter who is not afraid to post the facts! More reporters and news media need to confront him on these facts! I would if I could be heard!