The first shoe has dropped. The unofficial AzMERIT scores for the state have been released, and, as most people expected, fewer students made it above the cut score—were declared Proficient—than with the earlier AIMS test. We were told AzMERIT was going to be a tougher test, so it makes sense that the proficiency rate would go down. But there’s another shoe yet to drop when the individual district and school scores are released. Here’s what you should expect: the percent of students declared Proficient will fall in all schools and districts, but it will fall less in high performing schools than in low performing schools. That means the gap between high achieving and low achieving schools and districts will appear to increase, but the change will have more to do with the way the test is scored than with any change in student achievement.
New York City was the first in the nation to give its students a test aligned with the Common Core. Passing rates dropped all over the city, but the drop was greatest among students who scored low on the previous test. That didn’t mean the achievement gap increased. The raised cut score made the increased gap in passage rates a virtual certainty.
If the proficiency gap increases in Arizona as I expect it will, the new AzMERIT test itself won’t be the main reason, and it certainly won’t mean the differences in students’ achievement levels have grown. It will be due to the raised expectations about what it means to be proficient. When you raise the cut score, raise the dividing line between Proficient and Partially Proficient, the apparent achievement gap is going to increase even if students’ academic abilities remain constant. That has to do with the nature of tests and cut scores. More or less the same thing would have happened if we kept AIMS and set a new, higher bar on the old test.
If I’m wrong, if the percentage of students declared Proficient drops more-or-less evenly school to school and district to district or the differences don’t have any relation to whether the schools are high or low achieving, then I’m wrong. But if I’m right, anyone who uses the new scores to slam “failing” students and schools by saying things have gotten worse since last year, that the test’s increased proficiency gap means that low achieving students and schools are achieving at a lower level than they did before, is wrong.
This article appears in Aug 6-12, 2015.
I give up. We have let educrats destroy our educational system.
Once again the desperate situation with Arizona’s education system is exposed with the release of the unofficial AzMERIT scores for the state. Soon Pima County will vote on $815 Million bond package that has had more investigation and review than our critical statewide educational needs.
We are sitting on the sidelines as the Governor, Superintendent of Public Instruction and the State Board of Education are in a playground fight over who is the boss of furniture in the Board’s office.
Neither Governor Ducey or Superintendent Douglas are qualified nor have contributed to enhancement or direction of educational opportunities in our state. Being elected because Republican follows their name doesn’t excuse their failure to the human infrastructure we suffer with inadequate financial resources allotted to education.
People are camped out at the State Elections Office to start a recall of the State School Superintendent as if that will solve the problem. The loss of our human potentials deserves just as much research, study and action as went into the Pima County Bond Package.
We need a higher priority for education.
Clever moves:
Lower the base. By comparison declare progress!
Lower expectations. When achieved declare success.
Wonderful.. fewer students make the grade, and the Republican governors continue to cut the Educational Budget.. which means fewer certified teachers, higher teacher to student ratios.. BUT
More money for the Arizona Correction Department (i.e. Prisons).. to put the flunkies where the Republican House, Senate, and Governor believe where they belong.. prison.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch….the tax cuts for businesses has stirred a HUGE INFLUX of businesses to Arizona.. NOT HAPPENING…
Today’s growth businesses realize that PEOPLE and EDUCATION, and ROADS, (i.e. INFRASTRUCTURE), are their most important assets.
And, Back at the Ranch, Governor Duccy (Trump in Disguise), will figure out a way to make a no tax system finance a real world problem.
WTF is with this CLOWN anyway, and the morons who elected him?
Internationally roughly a third of all students qualify for college and career. So where did we get the insane notion that by testing the heck out of students we could force a larger percentage to become “college and career” ready? What about their interests and ability limits?
And never mind the impact of socio-economics on performance, which congress seems to be less concerned with than test scores. Perhaps here’s why: I watched John McCain in a blatantly Scrooge moment say that if more students attend college, there will be no underprivileged class to fight wars in exchange for a free education. Can you believe it?
Sometimes I wonder if the real intention behind current ed policy is to refine the cream and throw away the milk.