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A new Public Policy Polling survey shows that Rick Santorum trails Mitt Romney by only 3 percentage points among Arizona Republicans, who will decide the state's primary election on Feb. 28.
Romney has the support of the 36 percent of Arizona Republicans, while 33 percent support Santorum.
This is the third poll in the last week to show a tightening race between Romney and Santorum in Arizona. Previous surveys by Rasmussen and American Research Group have Santorum surging in the Grand Canyon State.
The PPP survey drills down into where the support for Santorum and Romney—as well as other candidates—is coming from. It notes that Romney is losing the Tea Party vote; Santorum is better liked by Arizona Republicans than Romney; and an endorsement from Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio or Gov. Jan Brewer could be a game-changer.
It also notes that Congressman Jeff Flake is clobbering GOP challenger Will Cardon.
The analysis:
The Republican race for President in Arizona looks like a close one, with Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum only 36-33. Newt Gingrich is third at 16% and Ron Paul fourth at 9%.Santorum is better liked by Arizona Republicans than Romney, but the gap isn't as wide as we're finding in a lot of other states. Santorum's at +34 (61/27), while Romney's at +24 (58/34).
One thing to keep an eye on over the next week is whether Newt Gingrich can hold his support. 16% is pretty good for him compared to what we're finding other places right now, but only 46% of his voters say they're solidly committed to him. 40% of his supporters say that Santorum is their second choice, compared to only 25% for Romney. If Gingrich's supporters see he's not viable and decide to jump ship the race could get even closer.
Revelations that Mitt Romney's Arizona committee co-chairman was involved in a clandestine gay romance threw Saturday's presidential debate into disarray, as White House hopefuls argued—in often graphic terms—the social acceptability of same-sex relationships.
The debate, which featured nine of the 23 candidates that will appear on Arizona ballots, was the first of three televised debates to take place in the Grand Canyon State prior to the Feb. 28 presidential preference election. For the first question, debate organizers raised the subject of Republican Congressional candidate and Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu—a Tea Party favorite deeply involved in Romney's statewide campaign—who came out as gay during a press conference earlier in the day. Days earlier, the Phoenix New Times reported allegations that Babeu had threatened to have an ex-boyfriend deported over rumors he was spreading on the internet.
Nine of the lesser-known presidential candidates on the Arizona ballot met Saturday in the first of a series of debates in Arizona this week. The dark-horse candidates will meet again for a key debate tonight on the public-access station, while four other Republican candidates—former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, former House speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Congressman Ron Paul—will meet on Wednesday night in a CNN debate in Mesa.
Since the dark-horse candidates were not invited to Wednesday’s debate, tonight marks the last best chance for them to capture the attention of the state’s voters, who now appear to be focused on the major candidates in race. Two polls released last week showed that between 38 and 39 percent of GOP voters were supporting Mitt Romney, while 31 percent were supporting the surging Rick Santorum.
But a Rasmussen poll showed that 3 percent of the voter prefer another candidates and 5 percent of the voters were undecided, giving an opportunity to the dark-horse candidates to break through on Election Day.
Tonight's debate airs from 7 to 8 p.m. on Cox Cable Channel 99 and Comcast Channel 74, as well as streaming live at Access Tucson's website.
More photos from last night's debate after the jump.
Richard Grayson, Pinal County Greens co-chair and candidate for President in the February 28 Arizona Green Party presidential preference primary, today announced support for Bayer aspirin on demand for all women, Scottsdale millionaires, and members of the Roman Catholic clergy."As a longtime supporter of Planned Parenthood and women's reproductive rights, I believe that those who are trying to curtail access to contraceptives are causing big headaches for American society," said Grayson. "We need fast relief from these knee-o-conservatives."
A new American Research Group poll has Santorum surging in Arizona, although Romney still leads the GOP pack:
Mitt Romney leads in the Arizona Republican presidential primary with 38%. Romney is followed by Rick Santorum with 31%, Newt Gingrich with 15%, and Ron Paul with 11%.In a similar survey conducted January 25-26, 2012, Romney was tied with Gingrich at 32% each, followed by Paul with 12% and Santorum with 10%. Santorum has increased support among men from 9% in the January survey to 37% in the latest survey and Santorum has increased support among women from 11% in the January survey to 24% in the latest survey.
Romney leads Santorum 37% to 32% among likely Republican primary voters saying they will definitely or probably vote in the February 28 primary. Romney leads Gingrich 61% to 17% among the 4% of Republican primary voters saying they have already voted.
Romney leads with 41% among likely Republican primary voters saying they are supporters of the Tea Party, followed by Santorum with 34%, Gingrich with 10%, and Paul with 7%. Among likely primary voters saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 35%, followed by Santorum with 28%, Gingrich with 20%, and Paul with 15%.
Santorum leads Romney 37% to 30% among men, followed by Gingrich with 17% and Paul with 13%. Romney leads Santorum 47% to 24% among women, followed by Gingrich with 13% and Paul with 9%.
And we keep hearing that it's the Project White House 2012 candidates who aren't serious...
From Talking Points Memo:
This whole contraception debate is just so new-fangled, says billionaire investor and mega-funder to the super PAC supporting former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) for President, Foster Friess.In a simpler time, there were other ways to deal with female sexual desire. “Back in my day, they used Bayer Aspirin for contraceptives. The gals put it between their knees and it wasn’t that costly,” he said Thursday on MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell Reports, setting the host back for moment.
The general conversation was about Santorum’s past statements about contraception, who once said that it was “harmful to women.”
Local angle: Foster Friess, a part-time Scottsdale resident, was in a Phoenix TV studio. More AZ pride!
Jim Terr, Republican candidate for president, takes on his high profile opponents while wearing a hat.
As part of our extensive Arizona Presidential Preference Primary coverage, we've offered Republican and Green candidates on the ballot the opportunity to speak directly to the voter, unedited. Today, Republican Charles Skelley discusses his proposal for a campaign excise fee, partially in the third person:
THE US NEEDS AN "EXCISE" FEE ON POLITICAL CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS IN THE PRIMARY SEASON — TO FUND A NON-PARTISAN POLITICAL COLLEGE
Tucson AZ, Republican Presidential candidate Charles Skelley (co-founder of Worlds Masterminds) says it is not "fair" that raising and spending huge sums of money at a frenzied pace produces the winner in far too many US Presidential Primary elections. Typically less than 0.0001% of US citizens receive and spend these frenzied Presidential political campaign contributions. Most citizens understand that the US campaign financing system is broken and needs to be reformed.
We love democracy, so we're offering Arizona Presidential Primary candidates the opportunity to share their views here on The Range. Today, we're sharing the unedited perspective of Simon Bollander, Republican candidate for President.
Simon Bollander the adminstrator of Worlds Masterminds is extremely upset in the way our Country is managed. You will not believe this I Love the law proffession & if I had a second life I would be an attorney. Law is fun & is the foundation of our great country. But when it comes to our country being violated by our Congress that is of 70 percent of law degrees. Im very angry.