Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Can Hillary Beat Trump in AZ?

Posted By on Wed, Apr 27, 2016 at 2:00 PM

  • Donald Trump piñata by Dalton Avalos Ramirez/Photo by Mike Licht
  • Could he turn AZ blue?

A Rocky Mountain Poll showing Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump in Arizona is getting attention in the national media.

Politico notes that "Trump Could Put Arizona in Play." The Hill reports that "Clinton Beats Trump." PoliticsUSA's headline is "Arizona Could Turn Blue As Both Hillary Clinton And Bernie Sanders Lead Donald Trump." 

It's certainly possible that Trump could lose Arizona, given that he's one of the most unpopular people to seek the presidency. (And it looks increasingly likely he'll win the GOP nomination after yesterday's big wins.)

But Rocky Mountain polls don't have a great track record in predicting the spread in presidential races. In April 2012, the Rocky Mountain Poll had Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney by 2 percentage points. In October 2012, the firm had Obama ahead of Romney by 2 percentage points. Romney won Arizona by 10 percentage points, so this week's survey should probably come with about a pound of salt.

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