Friday, April 27, 2012

Is Arizona a Swing State in 2012?

Posted By on Fri, Apr 27, 2012 at 1:00 PM

Polling guru Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com/The New York Times looks at Obama's chances in Arizona. He notes that Obama will have a rough road here, but doesn't totally dismiss his chances. However, Silver doesn't see Arizona as a swing state:


None of this is to say that Mr. Obama couldn’t win Arizona — he certainly could. Bill Clinton won Arizona in 1996 when he won the election by about eight percentage points nationally. If Mr. Obama won by a similar margin, he’d be at least even-money to pick up the state as well.

But if he does win Arizona it will probably be superfluous, since in all likelihood he’ll already have won states like Ohio, Colorado and Virginia that are closer to the tipping point.

The situation is analogous to Mitt Romney winning a state like New Jersey, which is also plausible if Mr. Romney wins the election by several points nationally. But that doesn’t make New Jersey a swing state — it’s just extra spoils for the winner.

Tags: , , , , , , ,

Comments (2)

Showing 1-2 of 2

Add a comment

 
Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-2 of 2

Add a comment

More by Jim Nintzel

  • Editor’s note

    On the Road Again
    • Sep 20, 2018
  • The Skinny

    Why Lea Márquez Peterson won’t say whether she’s OK with locking up undocumented kids
    • Sep 20, 2018
  • Bennu Trek

    UA space scientist Dante Lauretta talks about closing in on the asteroid he’s been hunting on NASA’s behalf
    • Sep 13, 2018
  • More »
Today | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed
Saturday Tour & Tasting

Saturday Tour & Tasting @ Hamilton Distillery

Saturdays, 3-5 p.m.

All of today's events | Staff Picks

Staff Pick

Native Gardens

A hilarious new comedy that’s anything but neighborly!… More

@ Temple of Music and Art Sat., Sept. 8, 7:30-9 p.m., Sun., Sept. 9, 7-8:30 p.m., Tue., Sept. 11, 7:30-9 p.m., Wed., Sept. 12, 7:30-9 p.m., Thu., Sept. 13, 7:30-9 p.m., Fri., Sept. 14, 7:30-9 p.m., Sat., Sept. 15, 2-3:30 & 7:30-9 p.m., Sun., Sept. 16, 2-3:30 & 7-8:30 p.m., Tue., Sept. 18, 7:30-9 p.m., Wed., Sept. 19, 2-3:30 & 7:30-9 p.m., Thu., Sept. 20, 7:30-9 p.m., Fri., Sept. 21, 7:30-9 p.m., Sat., Sept. 22, 2-3:30 & 7:30-9 p.m., Sun., Sept. 23, 2-3:30 p.m., Wed., Sept. 26, 2-3:30 & 7:30-9 p.m., Thu., Sept. 27, 2-3:30 & 7:30-9 p.m., Fri., Sept. 28, 7:30-9 p.m. and Sat., Sept. 29, 2-3:30 & 7:30-9 p.m. 330 S. Scott Ave.

» More Picks

Submit an Event Listing

Popular Content

  1. Laughing Stock: Laughing All Over (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)
  2. Three and Out: Arizona Opens Pac-12 Play Against Oregon State (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)
  3. Humane Society of Southern Arizona Aims to Adopt Out 25 Pets on Friday (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)
  4. Three Great Things to Do in Tucson Today, Wednesday, Sept. 19 (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)
  5. UA Choral Concert featuring University Singers and Honors Choir (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)

© 2018 Tucson Weekly | 7225 Mona Lisa Rd. Ste. 125, Tucson AZ 85741 | (520) 797-4384 | Powered by Foundation