It appears that Rick Santorum’s weak debate performance last week was a game-changer for him—in the wrong direction. Public Policy Polling’s latest numbers have Mitt Romney crushing Rick Santorum:
Mitt Romney is headed for an overwhelming victory in Arizona’s primary on Tuesday. He’s at 43% to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Newt Gingrich, and 11% for Ron Paul.
You can make a fair argument that Romney’s already won the Arizona primary. Almost half of those planning to vote have already cast their ballots, and Romney has a 48-25 advantage over Santorum with those folks. That lead makes it nearly impossible for Santorum to make up the difference on election day, and Romney has a 39-27 advantage with those planning to vote on Tuesday anyway.
Romney’s winning basically winning every voter group in Arizona, even those he’s tended to do quite poorly with. He leads Santorum 39-33 with Evangelicals, 39-23 with Tea Party voters (Santorum’s in 3rd, Gingrich is actually 2nd at 30%), and 37-29 with those describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’ We project the Mormon vote at 14%. Romney leads 77-9 with them, but he has a 38-29 advantage with non-Mormons as well. Seniors are a key base of support for him in Arizona as they are everywhere. He leads 53-22 with them.
Santorum’s image has taken a big hit over the last week in the state. His net favorability has dropped 15 points from +34 (61/27) to just +19 (54/35). The debate Wednesday night may have damaged his cause. 51% of likely voters report having watched it and he’s actually in 3rd place with those folks at 21%, behind Romney’s 43% and Gingrich’s 23%.
Santorum may also have misstepped by talking too much about social issues in the last few weeks. 68% of Arizona voters say economic issues are their top concern when deciding who to vote for, compared to just 11% who say social issues are paramount. With the folks most concerned about economic issues he trails Romney 48-24.
It’s worth noting that Romney’s improved his image in the closing stretch in Arizona- it’s not just bringing down Santorum that’s put him in position for this big win. Romney’s net favorability is now +31 at 62/31, up from +24 at 58/34 a week ago.
We had been planning to do a 2 night Arizona tracking poll but with the numbers this lopsided we’re not going to bother, so this will be our final word on the race there.
This article appears in Feb 23-29, 2012.
This is why I left the Republican Party, they have no good people to offer and no good sense in voting for him.
This debate within the Republican party is important They need to realize that the extremism that has driven their party over the past 20 years is destructive to their party, their leadership, politics and the country.
They need to ignore the extremists, they have no choice but to vote with the Republican party to get a little of what they want, and more importantly to hold on to what they have. The democrats have done a better job of conveying to the extremists that they have a choice, a little bit of consideration or movement backwards if they split off a dilute the vote.
Just a quick observation from New Hampshire.
Here is today’s The New York Times posting on the Paul Krugman column:
“I am an independent republican write-in candidate for president. My focus is on changing the economic picture in USA. Because we are a world interconnected, life will improve throughout Europe from measures I plan on enacting here.
Lev Plan 1, via Executive Order, U.S. Mortgage Savings Bonds to purchase at reasonable discount every residence in America. Include all commercial properties.
Then home owners use a do-it-yourself- rewrite application online, the mortgages at fixed rate 15-20-25-30 yrs fixed at 4-7% deep ending on credit, this rewrite to Uncle Sam, the mortgage holder.
We divide the mortgages good bad ad ugly evenly to bank branches in the same zip codes for servicing—make your payment at the branch. We let the branches hold 12 payments to loan out to small businesses in the zip-hoods, but the interest on 60 million home mortgages goes to D.C. every month.
The spread between 2% Mortgage Savings Bonds, and the mortgages, average 5%— the spread on 60 million mortgages a month goes to retire our national debt.
Every homeowner and family old enough to vote will vote Lev plan.
Plan 2, nationalize, for National Security reasons, all the oil wells in the Gulf of Mexico. The BP blowout tapped into a deep sea seam of oil that runs the girth of the planet—the same unending supply as in Saudi Arabia. The same oil!
We use the proceeds to clean the Gulf, pay residential taxes, and free education, for starters.
I speak i win. Europe, too”
http://michaelslevinson.com
Too bad the Tucson Weekly does not support my First Amendment right to speak— this paper ignored the giant issue
Santorum has lost nearly all of his support from self-identified snobs.
A republican in Tucson is like throwing sand against the tide;it has a progressive moat around the whole second rate town…….