Tuesday, February 21, 2012

New Poll: Santorum Still Nipping at Romney's Heels in AZ

Posted By on Tue, Feb 21, 2012 at 2:44 PM

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CNN has released a new poll showing what the other recent AZ polls have shown: Rick Santorum remains within striking distance of Mitt Romney in the Arizona presidential primary:


On the eve of the last Republican presidential debate before next month's Super Tuesday contests, a poll indicates that Rick Santorum might be closing the gap with Mitt Romney in Arizona, which votes next Tuesday.

Roughly a third of all likely voters surveyed in the CNN/Time/ORC International Poll released Tuesday say they could change their mind between now and February 28.

The poll shows 36% of people likely to vote in Arizona's Republican primary say they back Romney, and 32% say they’ll vote for Romney. Romney’s 4-point margin is within the poll's sampling error, meaning he and Santorum are basically tied.

The poll indicates that 18% back former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, with 6% supporting Rep. Ron Paul of Texas and 6% unsure. Surveys conducted earlier this year by other organizations indicated Romney had a larger lead.

New York Times polling mastermind Nate Silver was setting Romney's chances of winning Arizona at 84 percent before this poll hit. We'll see what kind of adjustment comes later today, but unless Mitt is severely awful in tomorrow's debate or Rick delivers a knock-out punch, we're guessing that Mitt wins AZ.

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