Monday, November 7, 2011

Does Obama Stand a Chance in 2012?

Posted By on Mon, Nov 7, 2011 at 5:00 PM

Super smart guy Nate Silver looked at the statistical likelihood of Obama's re-election for this week's New York Times magazine. There's a reason the Democratic National Committee has started with the ads attacking Romney already:

We begin with the worst of these situations for Obama: Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee, and economic growth, rather than continuing along sluggishly, comes to a halt (perhaps the debt dominoes have fallen in Europe). Under these assumptions, Obama would only have a 17 percent chance — about one in six — of winning a majority of the popular vote.

His chances are slim enough in this case that if I woke up next November to discover that we would have four more years of Obama, I might ask whether there was some sort of October surprise: “Mitt in Torrid Affair With Filipina Housekeeper.” Subhead: “Illegal Immigrant Got Free Romneycare.” Then I might ask if Sarah Palin had run on the Tea Party ballot line and taken 6 percent of the vote.

Tags: , , , , ,

Comments (13)

Showing 1-13 of 13

Add a comment

 
Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-13 of 13

Add a comment

More by Dan Gibson

Today | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue
Burlesque Fitness

Burlesque Fitness @ Floor Polish

Mondays, Wednesdays, 4:30-5:30 p.m.

All of today's events | Staff Picks

Staff Pick

Carnival of Illusion: Magic, Mystery & Oooh La La!

This top-rated illusion show is "Revitalizing Magic" by blending an international travel theme with all the charms… More

@ Scottish Rite Grand Parlour Saturdays. Continues through April 14 160 South Scott Ave

» More Picks

Submit an Event Listing

Popular Content

  1. UPDATE: Please stop sending your sweet, sweet turkeys! (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)
  2. Cutting Teacher Compensation and School Funding in Wisconsin (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)
  3. Laughing Stock: The People's Pervert Does Christmas (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)
  4. The 'Freedom Center's' High School Course Is On Shaky Ground at TUSD (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)
  5. Sweetie Needs a Home (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)

© 2017 Tucson Weekly | 7225 Mona Lisa Rd. Ste. 125, Tucson AZ 85741 | (520) 797-4384 | Powered by Foundation