Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Tucson Republicans Might Want to Figure Out a Way Not to Lose (Quickly)

Posted By on Tue, Oct 18, 2011 at 1:30 PM

As a follow-up to yesterday's news that Jonathan Rothschild is leading Rick Grinnell, more results from the same poll were released by the Pima County Democratic Party today. Guess what? It looks like the three Democrats up for re-election should all win handily and Tucsonans still generally like Democrats and dislike Republicans. Also, the sun is projected to set tonight.

From the Global Strategy Group:

In the race for City Council from Ward 1, Democrat Regina Romero has a wide 32-point lead over Green Party candidate Beryl Baker, 49% to 17%.

• In the race for City Council from Ward 2, Democrat Paul Cunningham leads Republican Jennifer Rawson by 29 points, 54% to 25%. That’s a wider margin than Cunningham had in our July survey when he led Rawson 44% to 26%.

• In the race for City Council from Ward 4, Democrat Shirley Scott leads Republican Tyler Vogt by 25 points, 53% to 28%. Scott’s support remains unchanged from July, when she led Vogt 53% to 23%.

• The Democratic Party (54% favorable/37% unfavorable) is more popular in the city of Tucson than the Republican Party (39% favorable/53% unfavorable).

METHODOLOGY

• This memorandum summarizes results from a telephone poll of 400 randomly selected likely voters in the city of Tucson, Arizona.

• Interviewing for the poll was conducted October 10-12, 2011.

• Special care was taken to ensure the geographic and demographic divisions of the actual electorate are properly represented.

• The estimation error associated with a sample of 400 is 4.9% at the 95% confidence interval. This means that in 95 of 100 cases, the results of this poll are within plus or minus 4.9 points of the results that would have been obtained if all likely voters had been interviewed.

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