Tuesday, August 3, 2010
The latest Rasmussen poll says that if J.D. Hayworth beats John McCain in the U.S. Senate Republican primary (which isn't likely), former Tucson City Council member Rodney Glassman has a chance in the general election.
The latest numbers show Glassman ahead, 43 percentage points to Hayworth's 38 percent, in an extremely hypothetical match up.
Of course, it's looking less and less likely we'll get to see that match—as McCain has spent $15 million, to Hayworth's $1.5 million, and has pulled ahead by 20 points, according to an earlier Rasmussen report.
Glassman isn't a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination—he holds only 15 percent of likely Democratic voters in his four-way primary, according to Rasmussen. Half the voters don't know enough to have an opinion on the Democratic candidates.
McCain still holds a commanding 20-point lead over Glassman in a hypothetical general election.
And now, the requisite disclaimer: Rasmussen's accuracy has been questioned by pollwatchers such as Nate Silver at 538.com.