Tuesday, June 15, 2010
The bottom line: The news is not good for Democrats.
Bolger says the NPR poll has more evidence of a trend that's been apparent all year: Republican-leaning voters are energized, while the intensity seems to have leached out of the Democratic ranks.
"When you look at the generic ballot for Congress in the Democrat-held seats, the Republican is up by 5 [points]. But among those who rate their interest as 8 to 10, you know, the high-interest voters, the Republican leads in those Democratic seats 53 to 39.
"And what that means is that is in a close election, the Republican enthusiasm will put Republicans over the top, just like in '06 and '08, the Democratic enthusiasm put the Democrats over the top."
The results in districts with CD8's profile:
• 66 percent of voters believe the country is on the wrong track
• Obama's approval level is at 40 percent.
• Democratic incumbent's approval rating is at 41 percent; disapproval is at 38 percent.
• Only 35 percent believe the Democratic policies helped avert a crisis; 59 percent believe they ran up the deficit.
• Only 31 percent favor re-electing the incumbent; 44 percent say they want to elect someone else.
• 62 percent of Republicans are enthusiastic about voting, while just 37 percent of Democrats are enthusiastic.
Here's a copy of the poll: 5722_NPRBG06152010.FINAL.pdf