Thursday, May 6, 2010

New Poll Numbers: McCain by 12 Over Hayworth. Goddard by 4 Over Brewer. GOP Loses Hispanic Vote

Posted By on Thu, May 6, 2010 at 6:20 PM

Research 2000 has new polling numbers in Arizona on the U.S. Senate and governor races, as well as approval numbers for SB 1070, Arizona's new immigration bill. You can see the numbers for yourself here (and the favorable/unfavorable numbers are fascinating), but Daily Kos has some key takeaways, including the impact of SB 1070 on the GOP's share of the Hispanic vote:

GOP primary, Governor

Jan Brewer (R) 32
Buz Mills (R) 14
Dean Martin (R) 13
John Munger (R) 5
Undecided 36

GOP primary, Senate

John McCain (R) 48 (52)
J.D. Hayworth (R) 36 (37)

We didn't poll the governor's race last time, an oversight on my part. In the Senate primary, McCain is now under 50 percent. These numbers are actually quite similar to the polling average, though Rasmussen is the usual outlier with a much tighter race.

In the general election:

John McCain (R) 48 (52)
Rodney Glassman (D) 35 (33)

J.D. Hayworth (R) 43 (48)
Rodney Glassman (D) 42 (37)

Yup, start rooting for J.D. Note that McCain is only getting 10 percent of Latino support. He got 74 percent of Latinos in 2004, and 40 percent of them in his presidential bid in 2008.

And now he's down to 10 percent. The Arizona GOP has lost Latinos, virtually overnight. That will have an impact this year, and it'll have an impact on

John Kyl's race in two years, and into the future.

Jan Brewer (R) 42
Terry Goddard (D) 48

Goddard has double-digit leads on the rest of the GOP field. Jan Brewer's support among Latinos is nine percent, while once upon a time Republicans routinely got at least 40 percent of the Latino vote In statewide races.

Granted, this is one poll, but those Latino numbers are worth watching.

The survey also notes that 53 percent of voters like Arizona's new immigration law, while 36 percent opposed it.

But Research 2000 asked a follow-up question:

Arizona now requires anyone passing through or living in their state to carry papers proving citizenship that can be produced at the command of any law enforcement officers. Do you approve or disapprove of this requirement?

Support for that dropped to 48 percent, with 44 percent disapproving.

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