Monday, November 2, 2009

On the Eve of Election ’09...

Posted By on Mon, Nov 2, 2009 at 8:32 PM

Armed with sophisticated technology, both Democrats and Republicans are chasing the 30,000 or so early ballots that are still in the hands of city voters, as well as additional high-propensity voters who traditionally vote at the polls on Election Day.

We have it on good authority that Democrat Party Chair Jeff Rogers himself was down at party headquarters tonight, using the party’s predictive-dialer gizmo to target voters.

That’s how it’s been all weekend, as both Democrats and Republicans target high-propensity voters for what’s sure to be a low-turnout local election.

We’ve been looking over the latest early ballot numbers from city voters and we’re not gleaning much in the way of clear trends from them. Numbers are high on the east side, but they don't overwhelm the other four wards.

City_Voter_Stats_11-02-09.jpg

Democrats still hold a big lead in numbers of ballots returned: They’ve brought in roughly 5,000 more ballots than Republicans.

We can assume the Republicans are not very likely to cross over, while Democrats are not necessarily excited by incumbent Democrats Nina Trasoff and Karin Uhlich. On the other hand, there are Democrats who will vote for a candidate they might otherwise shun just because they don’t care for the Tea Party movement, which is why Democrats keep referencing tea partiers in their press releases. That—and turnout—may be the central axis on which this election rests.

Check out the numbers yourself with this report and let us know what we’re missing: City_Voter_Stats_11-02-09.pdf

Total raw numbers:

• 32,498 of those ballots went to Democrats; 18,610 of those ballots had been cast, for a return rate of roughly 57 percent.

• 21,776 of those ballots went to Republicans; 13,596 of those ballots had been cast, for a return rate of roughly 65 percent.

• 373 of those ballots went to Libertarians; 165 of those ballots had been cast, for a return rate of roughly 44 percent.

• 165 of those ballots went to Greens; 94 of those ballots had been cast, for a return rate of roughly 57 percent.

• 13,638 ballots had been sent to people who aren't registered with any of the above parties; 6,363 had been cast, for a return rate of roughly 47 percent.

If you still have an early ballot, you should drop it off at a polling place on Tuesday.

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