Monday, November 2, 2009

Odds on the Odd, Updated: Slight Changes in the Spread and Nintz's Picks

Posted By on Mon, Nov 2, 2009 at 8:50 PM

In light of the flood of early ballots, we're updating the line on some of the over/unders in the TW Spread.

Some folks have asked if these are our predictions. No, these are spreads for the purpose of wagering. My picks follow after the jump.

TRASOFF: 3 percentage points over Kozachik
UHLICH: 5 percentage points over Buehler-Garcia
Fimbres: 10 percentage points over McClusky
Prop 200 NO: 10 percentage points over Prop 200 YES
Prop 400 NO: 5 percentage points over Prop 400 YES
Prop 401 NO: 2 percentage points over Prop 401 YES
Prop 402 NO: 2 percentage points over Prop 402 YES

INCUMBENTS IN CAPS

Over-Under

Overall Turnout: 26 percent

Percentage of voters casting early ballots: 66 percent

Percentage of early ballots returned compared to number mailed: 68 percent

Winners will be determined by final canvass.

Disclaimer: For entertainment purposes only. Gambling on the outcome of elections is strictly prohibited by Arizona law.

My picks:

Democrats all cover the spread.

Prop 200 loses by more than 10 percentage points.

Prop 400 loses by less than 5 percentage points.

I'll take Props 401/402 Yes and the points.

On the over-unders: I'll wager than turnout beats 26 percent, more than 66 percent of voters cast early votes and more than 68 percent of the early ballots that were sent out come back in.

Comments (2)

Showing 1-2 of 2

Add a comment

 
Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-2 of 2

Add a comment

More by Jim Nintzel

Today | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue
PiYo Strength Class

PiYo Strength Class @ Floor Polish

Thursdays, 4:30-5:30 p.m.

All of today's events | Staff Picks

Staff Pick

The Harry Potter Charity Ball

Strada Company presents a celebration and cosplay party of all things Harry Potter for the benefit of… More

@ Tucson Scottish Rite Cathedral Sat., July 29, 6-10 p.m. 160 S. Scott Ave.

» More Picks

Submit an Event Listing

Popular Content

  1. BASIS Connives to Maintain Its Elite Charter School Status in Baton Rouge (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)
  2. McCain Returns to Senate To Push Mystery GOP Healthcare Bill Forward (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)
  3. Head Back East with the Kingfisher's Summer Road Trip Menu (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)
  4. Tour Diaries! XIXA Days 10 and 11: On the Road From Switzerland to Italy. Also, Fetching Slovenian Checkpoint Guards! (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)
  5. Cinema Clips: Killing Ground (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)

© 2017 Tucson Weekly | 7225 Mona Lisa Rd. Ste. 125, Tucson AZ 85741 | (520) 797-4384 | Powered by Foundation