Monday, November 2, 2009

Odds on the Odd, Updated: Slight Changes in the Spread and Nintz's Picks

Posted By on Mon, Nov 2, 2009 at 8:50 PM

In light of the flood of early ballots, we're updating the line on some of the over/unders in the TW Spread.

Some folks have asked if these are our predictions. No, these are spreads for the purpose of wagering. My picks follow after the jump.

TRASOFF: 3 percentage points over Kozachik
UHLICH: 5 percentage points over Buehler-Garcia
Fimbres: 10 percentage points over McClusky
Prop 200 NO: 10 percentage points over Prop 200 YES
Prop 400 NO: 5 percentage points over Prop 400 YES
Prop 401 NO: 2 percentage points over Prop 401 YES
Prop 402 NO: 2 percentage points over Prop 402 YES

INCUMBENTS IN CAPS

Over-Under

Overall Turnout: 26 percent

Percentage of voters casting early ballots: 66 percent

Percentage of early ballots returned compared to number mailed: 68 percent

Winners will be determined by final canvass.

Disclaimer: For entertainment purposes only. Gambling on the outcome of elections is strictly prohibited by Arizona law.

My picks:

Democrats all cover the spread.

Prop 200 loses by more than 10 percentage points.

Prop 400 loses by less than 5 percentage points.

I'll take Props 401/402 Yes and the points.

On the over-unders: I'll wager than turnout beats 26 percent, more than 66 percent of voters cast early votes and more than 68 percent of the early ballots that were sent out come back in.

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