Friday, September 25, 2009

McCain Vs. Giffords/Glassman

Posted By on Fri, Sep 25, 2009 at 1:23 PM

Public Policy Polling has been dropping Arizona survey numbers all week. Yesterday’s installment, on Sen. John McCain’s numbers, had an interesting twist: He was set up against two Southern Arizona Democrats.

PPP tested McCain against Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and City Councilman Rodney Glassman because those are the Democrats whose names are dropped as potential challengers. (They also tested him against Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, with the caveat that she “obviously is not going to run for Senate next year.”) That tells you something about the Democratic bench in Maricopa County.

McCain crushed both Giffords and Glassman in the poll, which isn’t all that surprising, given that the election is still a year in the future and neither Giffords nor Glassman has done too much to raise their statewide profile.

McCain gets 57 percent of the vote against Giffords, who gets 30 percent. Hardly surprising, given that 60 percent of the voters don’t know enough about her to give her a favorable or unfavorable ranking. (She’s at 19 percent favorable and 21 percent unfavorable.)

Glassman is even more unknown. McCain gets 55 percent of the vote against the Tucson City Councilman, who was supported by 25 percent of those surveyed. More than four out of five voters—82 percent—didn’t know enough about Glassman to have an opinion about him. His favorables were at 6 percent and his unfavorables were at 12 percent.

We hear that Giffords is more likely to wait until 2012 to make a run for the Senate, especially if Sen. Jon Kyl decides to retire, as many seem to think he will. That makes sense to us, especially since redistricting could change the character of Giffords’ District 8. That gives her more time to build a statewide profile.

But we hear Glassman is seriously considering going after McCain. He’s being encouraged to do it by party elders such as Attorney General Terry Goddard and former state party chair Jim Pederson, who undoubtedly hope that some of Glassman’s family fortune would be dumped into a get-out-the-vote effort.

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