With Election Day less than a week away, Politico puts the Congressional District 2 race between Democratic incumbent Congressman Ron Barber and GOP challenger Martha McSally at the top of its list of the “five most suspenseful House races in the 2014 homestretch”:
For most of the year, Barber has maintained a steady lead over McSally, successfully portraying himself as a moderate figure in a swing district. McSally has waged what’s been widely seen as a lackluster campaign, spending more time talking about her personal history than her policy positions.
But operatives from both sides believe McSally is closing the gap thanks to an infusion of cash from Republican groups who view her as a rising star and future party leader. Over the last month, Republicans have outspent Democrats on the TV airwaves $1.75 million to $1.25 million.
Worth keeping on eye on: What role former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, Barber’s former boss, plays in the final week of the contest. The former congresswoman, who along with Barber survived the Jan. 2011 Tucson massacre, has been airing TV commercials voicing her support for Barber, who succeeded her in Congress.
Meanwhile, a GOP-leaning polling outfit we’re not familiar with, Red Racing Horses, has released a poll in the race that shows Barber with a 2 percentage-point lead:
A week before the competitive general election in Arizona’s 2nd congressional district, a Red Racing Horses (RRH) survey has found Rep. Ron Barber (D) with an extremely slight edge over his challenger, Martha McSally (R). Barber leads McSally just 48-46 among likely voters, and the two are tied in the votes already cast. The last few days of the race are likely to see a significant scramble for the votes of the small undecided population. With a significant gender gap, McSally may be well-served to try and close her deficit by connecting with Female voters, among whom she trails by 9 points. The survey found a closely-divided and polarized district, with the presidential vote similar to the actual result in 2012 and both McSally and Barber taking large majorities of their partisans. Thus, an equally valid strategy to trying to win swing votes may be attempting to boost base turnout. McSally especially could benefit from this method, as this survey found an electorate marginally more Democratic than 2012. If McSally were able to energize some less-enthusiastic Romney voters, it could easily allow her to close the deficit. Geographically, McSally leads in the suburban and rural portions of the district, while Barber carries the city of Tucson. McSally posts a strong margin in the Tucson suburbs, turning the swingy region into a solid base area. Her margin in conservative Cochise and outer Pima, however, is unimpressive relative to the strong Republican leanings of the area. This geographic disparity suggests McSally may need to work harder to turn out conservative voters in the rural and exurban areas. In conclusion, while Barber has the slightest of edges, this race is still very much up for grabs in the last 9 days of the election.
If this year is following previous Southern Arizona trends, Barber is in the lead but the race is tightening as Election Day approaches.
This article appears in Oct 23-29, 2014.
This vote should be a no brainer with McSally supporting the Koch brothers agenda. She will take away all the freedoms of the people.
Guess what, Speaker Boehner is going to pass a bill to get the house members a big raise since they work so hard the past 2 years. This is his no. 1 goal, wage increase for the house. This reminds me of the Phoenix law makers wanting a big wage increase for doing nothing. All they do is past bills that the ALEC org passes on to them. They don’t pass any bills to help the state.
You act like the Pepsi sisters haven’t funded liberal campaigns. What’s the difference?
My money is that this is so close they take three or four days counting the hanging chads.
Hopefully somebody notices that AZ doesn’t have punch card ballots.
Quick recalibrate the machines.
http://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2014/10/28/ballot-switch-claims/
Now why would he say this?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2014/10/28/obama_encourages_early_voting_you_can_only_vote_once_this_isnt_chicago.html
Right Rat T? Koch Brothers. boogity, boogity, boogity! And, amazingly, not one of the scardy-cats is the least bit concerned about George Soros and how he uses his financial influence to amuse himself by socially engineering people like they are lab rats.
Or, maybe ignorance really is bliss…
It sure is around here. They really don’t understand the Soros agenda.
I just traveled across town and every corner has a panhandler with a “homeless” sign. How is that trickle up poverty working?
McSally is starting to pull away. Once people got a chance to meet her it was no longer a contest.
I just love doing that. It’s a lot like yelling fire in an empty theater.
Anybody need counseling?
Rat T, do you have a job?
No. And I don’t want one. Do you?
I met her and I really liked her. She didn’t come off as “canned” and she answered all of our questions. She was very intelligent, animated and personable and seems very passionate. She also has tenacity. Like us, she is tired of the “same ole same ole” BS. That’s who I want representing me.
Rat T is your typical liberal welfare addict that would rather sit around playing video games while hitt’n his bong. No job, no brains and no integrity. It’s the millions like him, most of which are in the big cities, that put the POSER POTUS in ofc. and now want to keep all of the other POSERS in ofc. so that they can keep gettn’ those welfare checks. BUT THAT’S ALL ABOUT TO COME TO AN END, isn’t it rat turd!
There really is a difference between the two parties. Republicans want to stick their noses in women’s private places, end Social Security as we know it, end Obamacare, build pipelines through populated areas, give tax breaks to big business, and allow the American workforce to languish. Ms. McSally may be likeable, but as an R, the agenda she supports, is not one that is favorable to Arizonans or Americans.
Pima Mujer, I’ll bet you voted for that Illegal Alien POS Obama didn’t you?
I attended the Tanque Verde Valley Association’s annual meeting Wednesday evening. With no association business to conduct, the event was really a candidate forum for CD 2. Barber was unavailable but sent Ann-Eve Pedersen to pinch hit. She did a marvelous job; I especially liked her quoting — twice — Gabby Giffords’ pithy endorsement of Congressman Barber.
Colonel (retired) McSally was her usual strident self-serving self. I really wanted to tell her and the audience that Mark Kelly once — in a 2010 educators’ event for Gabby — told an audience that Gabby voted with John Boehner about 89% of the time, because most recorded votes are on non-substantive, non-controversial stuff, so Ron voting with Nancy 88% of the time is hardly a sign that he’s her yes man. Instead I asked a simple question: “Do you support background checks for all gun sales?” She said lots about what she does support and started dragging in the 2nd amendment. I said: “Then you don’t support …”, and she rewound the tape and started replaying it, to which I said again: “Your answer is no”, and let it go at that.
I think everyone should go online and read the SV Herald’s endorsement.
I hope never again to sit through a McSally event, which is the way the meeting was labeled in signs outside the church. I was met in the parking lot by a helpful gentleman, showing me where I could park and asking if I were there for ‘the McSally event’. I said I was there for the TVVA annual meeting.