Michael P. McDonald writes at HuffPost that Arizona’s war on illegal immigration might have cost the state three-quarters of a billion dollars:

The federal government uses these population counts to distribute federal dollars to the states. According to Andrew Reamer at the Brookings Institution, in 2008 the federal government distributed $866.5 billion in funds to the states based on the census population counts. Your state gets its share of the federal pie based on the number of people that are counted by the census. If there were $866.5 billion in funds to disperse in 2010, each person would be worth $2,807 in federal money to your state.

Note that I say “people” not “citizens.” This is where Arizona may have lost as much as three-quarters of a billion dollars annually in federal funding. The Arizona state government could have easily put this money to good use, as according to the New York Times, the state faced a $2.6 billion shortfall in fiscal year 2011.

I come to this conclusion by comparing what the Census Bureau expected Arizona’s population to be and what it really was — or at least who was counted. Throughout the decade, the Census Bureau demographers estimate each state’s population. The most recent estimates give a sense of what the Census Bureau thought the April 1, 2010, population of Arizona would be.

So, the Census Bureau demographers projected Arizona’s population to be 6,668,079 but the actual number was 6,392,017 or 276,062 fewer people than what the Census Bureau expected to find. This was the largest shortfall of any state in absolute numbers. Since Arizona is a

mid-sized state, as a percentage of the population this shortfall was nearly twice that of the next nearest state, Georgia.

So why was the Census Bureau wrong? Or were they wrong? It is not unreasonable to surmise one of two things were contributing factors: Either Arizona’s undocumented population did not want to stick around in the state or they did not think it was wise to fill out a government form — even if their confidentiality is strictly guarded by the U.S. Census Bureau. If the shortfall was due to the latter, then at $2,708 a person, Arizona lost out on $775 million in federal grants per year.

Read the whole thing here.

This article appears in Dec 30, 2010 – Jan 5, 2011.

Getting hassled by The Man Mild-mannered reporter

4 replies on “The Cost of SB 1070: $750 Million a Year?”

  1. How ludicrous. This is unadulterated sensationalist journalism. The author didn’t even factor in the precipitous drop in in-migration due to the recession. What a joke. And it’s headlines like this that only add more hyperbole to the SB 1070 issue.

  2. Uh… Hello Tucson. That would be my $866 million. I’m happy now that I’m not wasting it on your illegal aliens. Of course, that assumes what you’ve published is correct — which it is not. Thanks from Texas.

  3. Agreed, nor did they factor in the money saved from not having to educate, house, feed or provide free healthcare to the illegal aliens who have probably moved to other states or returned to Mexico, because of S.B. 1070. $750 million is a cheap price to pay in the long run. All those anchor babies just keep increasng the burden to tax payers. It needs to stop.

  4. Dan R if the drop of “in migration” hadn’t been counted why did we fare so much worse than any other state that had the same lack of in migration and states where in migration was worse than ours?

    generalno you assume they migrated back to mexico and not to texas or some other place that is hiring them. if so methinks they may be “your” illegal aliens now.

    Not taking a stance on anything other than if you are going to nitpick figures and others’ assumptions make sure your assumptions are also correct.

Comments are closed.