Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Newtmentum: Can Gingrich Maintain His Surge?

Posted By on Tue, Nov 22, 2011 at 3:00 PM

As long as we're talking about Newt's profound conquering of Arizona, Nate Silver looked at Gingrich's odds of winning the GOP nomination earlier this month. The takeaway:

Overall, I would read three of these factors, establishment support, personal liabilities, and (especially) fund-raising, as being clearly negative for Mr. Gingrich. This contrasts against one, ideological positioning, which is potentially favorable for him. He has both strengths and weakness in the key early-voting states, meanwhile.

That balance is unfavorable enough to suggest that his chances of winning the nomination are weaker than his polls alone would imply. That certainly does not mean that his chances are zero, or 1,000-to-1 against. If Republican voters decide that they really don’t want to nominate Mitt Romney, Mr. Gingrich could be the last man standing. But even if Mr. Gingrich continues to gain in the polls, he will have some major weaknesses to overcome.

At the Daily Dish, Sullivan unloads on Newt:


It is the latest abject humiliation for Mitt Romney, as yet another unelectable clown becomes the front-runner. It's not often I agree with Paul Begala, but the Democrats must be somewhat aghast at their good luck. Check out the favorable/unfavorable polls on Gingrich assembled here. Republicans like him, but not without some severe doubts. But the general public really doesn't. His best rating is a negative 3. More typical is a negative 16. Even Rasmussen's white/GOP-leaning sample backs Obama over Gingrich by 6 points, with Pew and Quinnipiac showing Obama's lead in double digits.

Tags: , , , , ,

Comments

Subscribe to this thread:

Add a comment

More by Jim Nintzel

Staff Pick

Raise a Glass and Raise an Eyebrow Wine Tasting

Raise a Glass for Cats! Raise an Eyebrow when you see our 2017 Firefighters and Kittens Calendar.… More

@ CataVinos Wine Shop and Tasting Room Sun., Sept. 25, 4-6 p.m. 3063 N. Alvernon Way.

» More Picks

Submit an Event Listing

Popular Content

  1. CM Punk and the UFC: Dishonorable and Disrespectful (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)
  2. 'TUSD Kids First' Amasses $35,000 War Chest From Large Donations (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)
  3. Song of the Day: 'The Jones' by John D. Loudermilk (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)
  4. Casa Video Top 10 (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)
  5. The Weekly List: 28 Things To Do In Tucson In The Next 10 Days (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)

© 2016 Tucson Weekly | 7225 Mona Lisa Rd. Ste. 125, Tucson AZ 85741 | (520) 797-4384 | Powered by Foundation