Thursday, December 30, 2010

The Cost of SB 1070: $750 Million a Year?

Posted By on Thu, Dec 30, 2010 at 12:36 PM

Michael P. McDonald writes at HuffPost that Arizona's war on illegal immigration might have cost the state three-quarters of a billion dollars:

The federal government uses these population counts to distribute federal dollars to the states. According to Andrew Reamer at the Brookings Institution, in 2008 the federal government distributed $866.5 billion in funds to the states based on the census population counts. Your state gets its share of the federal pie based on the number of people that are counted by the census. If there were $866.5 billion in funds to disperse in 2010, each person would be worth $2,807 in federal money to your state.

Note that I say "people" not "citizens." This is where Arizona may have lost as much as three-quarters of a billion dollars annually in federal funding. The Arizona state government could have easily put this money to good use, as according to the New York Times, the state faced a $2.6 billion shortfall in fiscal year 2011.

I come to this conclusion by comparing what the Census Bureau expected Arizona's population to be and what it really was — or at least who was counted. Throughout the decade, the Census Bureau demographers estimate each state's population. The most recent estimates give a sense of what the Census Bureau thought the April 1, 2010, population of Arizona would be.

So, the Census Bureau demographers projected Arizona's population to be 6,668,079 but the actual number was 6,392,017 or 276,062 fewer people than what the Census Bureau expected to find. This was the largest shortfall of any state in absolute numbers. Since Arizona is a

mid-sized state, as a percentage of the population this shortfall was nearly twice that of the next nearest state, Georgia.

So why was the Census Bureau wrong? Or were they wrong? It is not unreasonable to surmise one of two things were contributing factors: Either Arizona's undocumented population did not want to stick around in the state or they did not think it was wise to fill out a government form — even if their confidentiality is strictly guarded by the U.S. Census Bureau. If the shortfall was due to the latter, then at $2,708 a person, Arizona lost out on $775 million in federal grants per year.

Read the whole thing here.

Comments (4)

Showing 1-4 of 4

Add a comment

 
Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-4 of 4

Add a comment

More by Jim Nintzel

  • The Skinny

    Will U.S. Rep. Martha McSally remain wedded to the GOP agenda or will she show an independent streak?
    • Mar 30, 2017
  • It’s ShowTime!

    Creative Tucson wants to reinvent public access for the 21st century—and they want you to tell your own story
    • Mar 30, 2017
  • No Healthcare Vote Today After All

    • Mar 24, 2017
  • More »
Today | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed
Brain Candy Live!

Brain Candy Live! @ UA Centennial Hall

Sat., April 1, 7-8:45 p.m.

All of today's events | Staff Picks

Staff Pick

Brain Candy Live!

Adam Savage, one of television's most loved personalities, has joined forces with Michael Stevens, one of YouTube's… More

@ UA Centennial Hall Sat., April 1, 7-8:45 p.m. 1020 E. University Blvd.

» More Picks

Submit an Event Listing

Popular Content

  1. A Tucson 17-year-Old Loves Her Hometown, and the Internet Explodes (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)
  2. Streets of This Town: Queen-Sized Beauty Rest and Some DNA. (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)
  3. "AZ Schools Now" Town Hall Will Give You a Chance to Be Heard On Public School Funding (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)
  4. Education Budget Rumblings from D.C. — All Cuts, All the Time (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)
  5. The Weekly List: 16 Things To Do In Tucson In The Next 10 Days (The Range: The Tucson Weekly's Daily Dispatch)

© 2017 Tucson Weekly | 7225 Mona Lisa Rd. Ste. 125, Tucson AZ 85741 | (520) 797-4384 | Powered by Foundation